Washington, D.C., June 10, 2015 - Emerging market GDP growth likely accelerated in 2015Q2 after having fallen to a six-year low in Q1 according to the latest update of the IIF's EM Coincident Indicator. The EMCI showedan increase to 2.2 percent in May, up from 1.6 percent in April.
"We've begun to see a more positive trend in emerging market growth since the steep decline observed since last autumn," said Kristina Morkunaite, lead author of the report. "This underpins hope that EM growth will pick up in Q2, having reached a six-year low in the first quarter of 2015."
The EMCI extracts a common trend out of 41 macroeconomic and financial variables to estimate emerging market GDP growth on a monthly basis. The rebound in May was driven by further improvements in financial variables, a pick-up in business sentiment and improved trade indicators. Industrial production data in aggregate ticked down further, but the overall pace of decline continued to ease.
The Institute of International Finance is the global association of the financial industry, with close to 500 members from 70 countries. Its mission is to support the financial industry in the prudent management of risks; to develop sound industry practices; and to advocate for regulatory, financial and economic policies that are in the broad interests of its members and foster global financial stability and sustainable economic growth. IIF members include commercial and investment banks, asset managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, central banks and development banks. For more information visit www.iif.com.