IIF Authors

Status: Will be live at 10/07/2017 15:43

2017 PCG Report on Implementation of the Principles

Private capital inflows to the 30 major emerging markets monitored by the IIF are estimated to rise moderately from $763 billion in 2016 to $1.1 trillion in 2017 (see Chart 1). Portfolio inflows have performed strongly in 2017, with nine consecutive months of positive inflows for the first time since 2014. In July, the perception that the ECB and BoE could be contemplating moderating the pace of monetary accommodation precipitated a temporary bond sell-off, reminiscent of a milder version of the 2013 taper tantrum. The net debt outflows reversed after only four days, but the episode is a reminder of how sensitive EM assets can be to abrupt shifts in monetary policy expectations from key central banks. Meanwhile, rising debt levels and significant FX debt redemptions coming up in some emerging markets reveal a potential vulnerability to foreign capital outflows.