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Status:
Draft -- Not Published
Will be live at 01/28/2021 07:38
Global Macro Views: Inflation-Consistent Output Gaps
January 28, 2021
There’s plenty of evidence that output gaps are difficult to estimate, …
especially in real time when they matter most for fiscal and monetary policy.
IMF output gaps were -3.2 and -5.1 percent for the US and Euro zone in 2020.
We use Phillips curves to compare these gap estimates to levels of core inflation.
Depressed Euro zone core inflation points to an output gap closer to -8.0 percent, …
while relatively robust core PCE inflation supports the narrower US gap estimate.
IIF012821_GMV
(231 KB)
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Categories
Research
,
Global Focus
,
Global Macro Views
,
Output Gaps
IIF Authors
Robin Brooks
Managing Director and Chief Economist
rbrooks@iif.com
Jonathan Fortun
Economist
jfortun@iif.com