IIF Authors

Status: Will be live at 01/28/2021 07:38

Global Macro Views: Inflation-Consistent Output Gaps

  • There’s plenty of evidence that output gaps are difficult to estimate, …
  • especially in real time when they matter most for fiscal and monetary policy.
  • IMF output gaps were -3.2 and -5.1 percent for the US and Euro zone in 2020.
  • We use Phillips curves to compare these gap estimates to levels of core inflation.
  • Depressed Euro zone core inflation points to an output gap closer to -8.0 percent, …
  • while relatively robust core PCE inflation supports the narrower US gap estimate.