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Entries for 2013

September 17, 2013
Activity has continued to strengthen in the advanced economies, but differences across the EM world remain prominent. Those EMs that are closely integ

September 10, 2013
The five years since the global financial crisis has witnessed a striking divergence in performance between advanced economies and the emerging market

September 10, 2013
President Nicolás Maduro is struggling to boost growth and stem inflation. With very limited policy scope, we expect the government to devalue the bo

September 5, 2013
The good news: Euro Area unemployment fell for the first time in two years in June-July. The bad news: Unemployment is likely to decline only very gra

September 5, 2013
Despite its substantial oil wealth, Nigeria has recorded federal budget deficits for the past four years. Our projections suggest that the deficit wil

September 3, 2013
The U.S. Court of Appeals has reaffirmed the verdict of a lower court regarding payment to holdout creditors. It has, however, stayed its ruling pendi

September 3, 2013
Large macroeconomic imbalances and increased political tensions have left Turkey among the hardest hit emerging markets as global market sentiment wor

August 29, 2013
The turmoil in the region has aggravated the twin deficits in 2012. The removal of fuel subsidies combined with a surge in grants will narrow the fisc

August 22, 2013
Economic activity is expected to recover gradually in 2013 and 2014, helped by sizable multilateral and bilateral support in the form of loans and gra

August 22, 2013
After May's narrow election victory, the government is likely to target greater fiscal adjustment in the upcoming budget for 2014, while monetary poli

August 22, 2013
Real GDP growth should remain buoyant, at around 8% in 2013 and 2014. Strong FDI inflows are likely to continue over the medium term. Offshore gas pro

August 21, 2013
With sharply reduced external imbalances likely to be sustained and government deficit set to remain less than 3% of GDP, near-term risks appear well

August 19, 2013
Real GDP growth recovered in the second quarter and short-term indicators suggest further firming in the third quarter. Domestic demand remains very w

August 15, 2013
Authorities have taken advantage of relatively robust growth and rising oil revenues to strengthen the fiscal framework. The 2011 structural fiscal ru

August 15, 2013
Growth is expected to accelerate from 2.8% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2013 driven by a strong rebound in agricultural output. Nonagricultural growth slowed to

August 15, 2013
With the fiscal deficit set to widen to 4.5% of GDP this year, the government has proposed another downsizing of the funded pension pillar. The propos

August 14, 2013
The restoration of macroeconomic balance has helped insulate domestic conditions from recurring global financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. T

August 13, 2013
Real GDP growth stalled in 2013, alongside high inflation, and a narrowing current account surplus, suggesting that the economy is operating near its

August 13, 2013
Confidence has weakened under the weight of sluggish growth, increased political uncertainty and policy inconsistency. Confidence erosion augurs that

August 7, 2013
Popular discontent with the political establishment has increased pressure to reform the electoral system. Both the government and opposition have adv
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