We believe multilateral support will be critical for South Africa going forward. Moody’s rating downgrade will likely trigger further capital outflows in 2020Q2. This will continue the pressure on the ZAR, which we have flagged as overvalued. Economic contraction and higher funding costs will likely make debt unsustainable.
China’s NPL ratio has been remarkably stable amid slowing economic growth, largely because many NPLs have been written off. Without these write-offs, China’s NPL ratio would be at 4.85% today instead of the actual 1.86%. More institutions and instruments have been introduced to clean up NPLs.
We rank EM on preparedness to handle COVID-19, beyond the scope there may be to ease macro policies.
This short briefing note analyzes the recent Bank of Canada and Bank of England discussion papers on potential Central Bank Digital Currencies.
Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits.
Global household debt tops $47 trillion—over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis; More than three-fourths of the 75 countries in our sample now have higher household debt-to-GDP ratios than in 2007.
Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, and Sergi Lanau, Deputy Chief Economist, tackle their global and regional growth forecasts in six questions.
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal Government have begun to implement a series of policy measures to address the economic and financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two grids in this document break out the recent policy responses.
The IIF commended the efforts taken by BCBS and IOSCO to address the challenges of the final phases of non-cleared margin implementation. However, it underscored that the efforts of our members to prepare are severely impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) and McKinsey & Co. have completed a joint survey around cyber resilience to provide an understanding of current and planned practices that financial firms are undertaking to enable and strengthen firm-level and sector-level cyber resilience.
We now expect a recession in CEEMEA as a result of COVID-19. CEE will be affected by Euro area contraction but has policy space. ussia’s buffers and flexible Ruble should reduce impact on growth. Lower growth will markedly worsen debt dynamics in South Africa. Recession concerns could trigger further policy easing in Turkey.
We see the global economy in recession this year, as low oil and financial stress add to the Covid shock. The shock hits EM after years of already subpar growth. We project recessions everywhere in Latin America, and the lowest EM Asia growth since the 1997-98 crisis.
This is a supplement to the IIF-Deloitte series, Realizing The Digital Promise, and captures some of the topical insights shared: both in success stories with the deployment of new technological solutions, and also in some of the cultural adaptation challenges, where some aspects of the current predicament may present a microcosm of the digital transformation journey.
The IIF outlines 5 key policy tools that international economic policymakers should be striving to use, now. No one action can turn the tide against COVID-19, but international coordination will prove crucial to limiting the damage.
Aggressive fiscal stimulus prompts an abrupt rise in sovereign bond yields—and a renewed focus on debt dynamics; Corporate bond funds see sharp outflows of $34bn over the past month, vs. average monthly inflows of $14bn in 2018-19; Amid growing risks for the banking sector, exposure to the energy sector looks relatively limited; The safe-haven rush to USD is a major refinancing risk for EM corporates and sovereigns that rely heavily on FX funding
Executive Vice President of Research and Policy, Clay Lowery, answers six big questions about the potential tools available to policymakers combating the economic and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The IIF and undersigned associations submitted a joint letter emphasizing the importance of keeping the U.S. financial markets open during this extraordinary time of the COVID-19 health crisis.
The IIF is pleased to submit our comment letter on the Bank of England Discussion Paper on ‘The 2021 biennial exploratory scenario (BES) on the financial risks from climate change.’