Entries for 2022

The Institute of International Finance welcomes the opportunity to respond to the House of Commons International Development Committee’s inquiry on debt relief in low-income countries. We commend the Parliament for taking this step in investigating this important issue.

The country has been in political paralysis without a new government and president since October 2021. We expect growth to accelerate to around 9% in 2022 supported by higher oil prices and production.

Ukraine has received $6.8 bn in assistance since the beginning of the war. However, the monthly fiscal financing gap reached nearly $4.5 bn in May. $23 bn in commitments for the remainder of 2022 might not be sufficient. The NBU has been providing substantial monetary financing to the budget. To stabilize FX and bring real rates to positive territory, it hiked rates to 25%. Without further support, Ukraine may face a BoP crisis in the coming months.

The RMB has made marked progress in its global use, especially in cross-border investments. However, it is far behind the USD and EUR in global payments, reserves, FX trading, and trade finance. To promote the global use of RMB, China needs to further open up its financial sector.

This paper highlights why sanctions on Russia should not be considered static. Rather, they are a "moving target" requiring regular adjustments as their consequences play out and countermeasures are taken. Importantly, we have also yet to reach the top rung of the escalation ladder. Western allies could take additional steps in the coming weeks and months to keep up pressure on the Russian government.

The CEE-4 outperformed Euro area GDP growth in 2022Q1. Uncertainty and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as tighter policies are to blame. Central banks may need to tighten policies further should depreciation pressures rise. Energy supply shortages could trigger a severe recession.

Offset issuance in voluntary carbon markets has slowed this year amidst concerns over excess offset supply; Rising corporate net-zero pledges and technology advances (e.g. blockchain-based protocols) should support market growth, however, lack of price transparency and standardization remains a significant barrier for market growth; The finalized Article 6 Rulebook could spur efforts to integrate voluntary and compliance markets over time; Defining global threshold standards for high quality carbon credits should help bring greater price transparency and liquidity to voluntary carbon markets; A large share of carbon offset projects originates from emerging markets; pure removal-based offsets remain too scarce