Entries for 2022

We update our high-frequency tracking of EM trade balances, … and discuss broader BoP developments for selected countries. Some like Brazil continue...

Growth in the nine MENA oil exporters will accelerate. The impact of tighter global financial conditions is expected to be limited. The combined current account and fiscal balances will remain in large surpluses. Risks to the outlook are well contained given the ample public foreign assets.

Investors are pricing in more checks and balances post-election. The new political landscape could make the macroeconomic policy framework more resilient. Despite rising transition risk, we do not expect a full-blown crisis. We remain optimistic as incentives for moderate policies have increased.

We last week discussed our updated exchange rate fair values. That discussion centered on structural breaks across G10 currencies, … given Russia’s ...

The October 2022 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events.

The September 2022 edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events.

September's edition of the Digital Finance Download. A Monthly Update of significant developments in digital finance around the globe.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$2.9 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were -$8.9 bn and $6.0 bn. Chinese equities posted $0.7 bn in outflows. ...

Russia stopped publishing some key statistics since February 2022. The authorities say the measure is to protect Russia from sanctions. Hidden data make independent economic analysis challenging. In the near term, it allows the authorities to control the narrative. It also incentivizes institutions to embellish reporting to the center. With time, accurate macro-analysis will become nearly impossible. Russia’s observance of the IMF’s SDDS appears sufficient for now.

Weak consumption due to zero covid is weighing on growth, … as are a housing slowdown and increasing global recession risk.   We see growth of 2.6% ...

Debt default risk has gone up substantially, as the financing gap has increased.

This GMV updates our exchange rate fair value estimates. Our focus in these updates is usually concentrated on EM, … but Russia’s invasion of Ukrain...

At around $1.3 trillion, ESG loans account for over 30% of the total ESG debt universe. Global ESG loan issuance has soared from less than $40 billion in 2013 to $265 billion by Aug. 2022, mostly due to increased interest in sustainability-linked loans. ESG loan markets offer great potential for mobilizing climate finance--including for emerging and developing economies.

Russia’s current account surplus reached $180 bn by end-August. Well on track to hit the forecast of $250-$280 bn surplus in 2022, followed by a current account surplus of about $80 bn in 2023. Russian banks are accumulating FX as the BoR is under sanctions. Due to the risk of further sanctions, Russia is keen to de-dollarize. Despite the creative schemes, progress has been limited so far.

We document China’s role in external funding to frontier markets. Many received more than 0.5% of GDP annually in the mid-2010s, ... but flows slowe...

The upcoming presidential election has become more contested. Yet despite rising transition risk, we do not expect full-blown institutional crisis, and a relatively smooth transfer of power could lift investor confidence. Regardless of who wins, the overall economic framework should stay unchanged.

Energy supply shortages will weigh on near-term growth prospects for the CEE-4 region. Covid-driven supply chain stress is off its peak, but a return to pre-Covid norms will take time. The CEE-4 region could help make global supply chains more resilient if the region can attract more FDI.

The COVID shock caused substantial supply chain disruptions, … which spilled into unprecedented delivery delays around the world, … as well as large...