Entries for 'Debt'

Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes — but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong — but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product

Steady Fed gives sense of balanced risks: “healthy” U.S. economic trajectory, potential inflation rise towards 2%; Frontier market debt growing quickly — total outstanding $3.2 trillion — sovereign defaults low (for now); Green and sustainability-linked lending nearly doubles in 2018 – now almost $100 billion outstanding; LIBOR transition fraught with risks — linked to contract maturity profiles, spreads to new benchmarks

EM assets have enjoyed tailwinds—more dovish Fed/ECB, better growth prospects, attractive valuations… but recent dollar strength and higher oil prices highlight risks ahead; Non-financial corporate EM FX debt up by over $2 trillion since 2009, pushing total EM FX debt to $5.3 trillion; High levels of dollarization reflect declining consumer confidence in Turkey and Argentina

Markets reassess chances for a Fed rate cut this year amid more optimism on trade talks, Chinese growth; Policy backdrop feeds into asset valuation in emerging markets; China may be taking a break from deleveraging, but non-financial corporate debt is still over 150% of GDP and at over 50% of GDP, household debt in China is well above the EM average—and growing strongly

Stretching out policy support; U.S. banks build up holdings of domestic government debt—potential liquidity risk?; Higher U.S. budget deficits will keep net borrowing needs at high levels; Less foreign demand for Treasuries—though domestic demand has remained solid

Eking out the late-cycle rally; Sustained improvement in external funding conditions would be a boon for highly indebted EMs; After debt relief, many low-income countries have seen debt/GDP ratios rise sharply in recent years; Rising pension obligations burden mature economies—and some emerging markets as well

Declining equity risk premia mirror the Fed’s dovish turn in 2019—but how much further can risk-on run?; Angels falling: more U.S. issuers are at the lower end of investment grade (BBB)—and taking on more debt; More vulnerable: small unrated U.S. non-financial corporates have racked up a hefty $1.13 trillion in debt; To call or not to call: $110 billion in CoCos are redeemable through 2020

Return to low volatility has underpinned the risk rally, but a less-dovish Fed could hurt; Term premium compression again—bond markets to the rescue?; MiFID II ushers in a decline in turnover, shift towards cheaper ETFs in the EU; Older Americans shoulder a growing burden of student loan debt 

After a burst of strength in 2017-18, momentum in U.S. corporate earnings and sales shows signs of fading; Growing pressure on profitability for global systemically important banks; Despite higher hedging costs, safe-haven demand continues to support foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries; Emerging market central banks load up on gold, looking to build precautionary buffers

Fed flexibility on balance sheet normalization could have far-reaching consequences; Tech stock valuations suggest fears that trade war is morphing into tech war; A more dovish Fed spells respite for highly indebted EM borrowers; Unprecedented growth in green syndicated lending; Sharply higher debt in vulnerable low-income countries puts sustainable development goals at risk 

Davos debates debt, urges action on financing for sustainable development goals; Analysts get more pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings; Global equity valuations are back to long-run averages—but are they cheap?; Long-term investors look to increase allocations to EM equities

Policy dissonance has been a key factor in market volatility, yield curve flattening; Growing concern about the longer-term implications of a U.S. government shutdown; If bank stocks are a bellwether, signals are not reassuring; China deleveraging on the back burner; rising refinancing risk for U.S. corporates

Dichotomy between still-strong growth and market warning signals leaves investors scrambling; Upward pressure on overnight rates could trigger liquidity shortages, higher volatility in money markets; Lowest tier of investment grade now accounts for 42% of the U.S. corporate debt universe, up from 30% in 2008; Central bank reserve managers shift away from USD in 2018