Entries for 'Morocco'

We look at the expected impact of the recent earthquake on Morocco's economy. In the long-term, boosts from the planned reconstruction may offset the initial negative impact, as the Moroccan government seizes the opportunity to curb pre-existing technological disparities in the affected regions.

The result of higher oil prices is a shift in purchasing power from oil consumers to producers. Oil exporters are getting a boost to their terms of trade, leading to wider CA and fiscal surpluses. Higher energy prices will hurt several EMDEs that remain heavily dependent on petroleum imports.

The MENA region has weathered the economic storm from the health crisis. The economic recovery continues to gain momentum. Higher energy prices will improve the fiscal and current account positions in oil exporters. In oil importers, deficits, government debt, and unemployment will remain high. 

Our baseline projections do not envisage recovery in tourism to pre-pandemic levels before 2023. Faster recovery in tourism hinges on rapid advancements in vaccine distribution.

Improved market sentiment will allow African sovereigns to return to the market in ‘21. We expect Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa, among others, to issue Eurobonds. However, debt sustainability and liquidity concerns are rising in the context of COVID-19. African countries face Eurobond repayments of close to $100 bn in the coming years. An end to the current low-interest rate environment could make rolling over of debt costly.

Sovereigns are increasingly tapping capital markets to finance fiscal deficits. Private inflows to the MENA region continue to be dominated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Resident outflows are declining but still exceed inflows. FDI remains subdued and concentrated in the energy sector. 

Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits. 

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

Neglect of structural distortions has prevented Morocco from matching its more successful EM peers in raising its standard of living. 

Les politiques appropriées des autorités combinées au faible cours du pétrole ont contribué à maintenir la stabilité macroéconomique et rédui

The Moroccan authorities have implemented strong policy actions in the past three years to achieve macroeconomic stability and reduce vulnerabilities

The policy environment has improved since the formation of the coalition government. Reform of the subsidy system will help to ensure fiscal sustainab

The financial sector has remained resilient, including to the recent financial turmoil in the Euro Area. Progress has been made in adopting internatio

Growth is expected to accelerate from 2.8% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2013 driven by a strong rebound in agricultural output. Nonagricultural growth slowed to