Entries for 'Tunisia'

Authorities’ reluctance to implement the needed reforms has aggravated Tunisia’s preexisting debt problems. In the absence of an IMF program, persistent fiscal and balance of payments financing shortfalls will jeopardize macroeconomic stability.

Political tensions and major structural challenges combined with the war in Ukraine have exacerbated economic vulnerabilities. Current and fiscal deficits and high public debt pose significant financial risks. An IMF program is needed to close the financing gap and restore macroeconomic stability.

The MENA region has weathered the economic storm from the health crisis. The economic recovery continues to gain momentum. Higher energy prices will improve the fiscal and current account positions in oil exporters. In oil importers, deficits, government debt, and unemployment will remain high. 

The pandemic combined with the current political paralysis have exacerbated vulnerabilities in the economy. Tunisian policymakers face difficult choices in stimulating growth while reducing macroeconomic imbalances. 

Our baseline projections do not envisage recovery in tourism to pre-pandemic levels before 2023. Faster recovery in tourism hinges on rapid advancements in vaccine distribution.

Improved market sentiment will allow African sovereigns to return to the market in ‘21. We expect Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa, among others, to issue Eurobonds. However, debt sustainability and liquidity concerns are rising in the context of COVID-19. African countries face Eurobond repayments of close to $100 bn in the coming years. An end to the current low-interest rate environment could make rolling over of debt costly.

Sovereigns are increasingly tapping capital markets to finance fiscal deficits. Private inflows to the MENA region continue to be dominated by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Resident outflows are declining but still exceed inflows. FDI remains subdued and concentrated in the energy sector. 

Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits. 

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.

The economic situation has deteriorated since the Arab Spring in 2011. Fiscal consolidation, continual high unemployment, and rising inflation have tr

The smooth transition to more democratic rule is improving economic prospects and growth is expected to accelerate in 2014, driven by rising investmen

External and fiscal deficits widen, driven by higher imports and large increases in current government spending, respectively. We expect both deficits

A new coalition government was formed in March. Tunisia's political transition by end-2013 hinges on agreement on a constitution followed by general e