Entries for 'Capital Flows'
January 5, 2021
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $45.9 bn in December.
Equity and debt inflows were $29.3 bn and $16.6 bn.
China equity flows posted $13.2 bn in inf...
October 21, 2020
We expect a stronger recovery in capital flows to Asia relative to other EMs in 2021. FDI remains an important driver, with India and Indonesia as the largest recipients. Relatively robust inflows and c/a adjustments in ‘20 allow for reserve accumulation. A reemergence of COVID-19 and geopolitical factors are the key risks to the outlook.
October 14, 2020
We expect a slow and uneven recovery in non-resident capital flows globally. CEEMEA should fare somewhat better with a broad pickup in ‘20H2 and ‘21. The recovery will likely be driven by stronger FDI and portfolio capital flows. A possible COVID-19 resurgence and geopolitical risks weigh on the outlook. If sentiment worsens, Turkey, South Africa, and Ukraine will be most exposed.
June 3, 2020
Non-resident flows to emerging and frontier markets will contract sharply in 2020. Remittances have become an important, countercyclical, source of inflows for EM. In 2020, however, they will likely be much lower due to the global nature of shocks. High-frequency data show that the deceleration had already begun in the 1st quarter. Central America and the Caribbean, the Philippines, and Egypt are most exposed.
April 8, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has led to a pronounced sudden stop in EM. Out short-term portfolio tracker shows record outflows in 2020Q1. We expect a modest recovery in capital flows in the 2nd half of 2020. Nevertheless, capital flows to EM will be much weaker than in 2019. Given uneven EM policy space, multilateral support will be needed.
October 16, 2019
We expect a pickup in portfolio flows to emerging markets in 2020. 2019 saw a healthy recovery so far, despite slowing global growth. Central banks’ pivot towards monetary easing supports debt flows. Local markets appear to have attracted large inflows in 2019H1. This was true for established EMs as well as some frontier markets.
October 1, 2018
Portfolio inflows to EMs increased slightly to $7.9 billion in September, due mostly to a rebound in bond inflows to $5.6 billion-offsetting the slowd
September 27, 2018
Profit repatriation slows-a potential trigger to rebalance away from U.S. equities' Sharp divergence in shadow policy rates Wide valuation gap between
September 17, 2018
Against the backdrop of rising rates, a stronger USD and more volatile capital flows, Bahrain, Pakistan, Zambia, Ghana and Tunisia are currently among
September 4, 2018
Equities were more resilient with over $7 billion in inflows-of which China was $5.8 billion; in contrast, debt saw
August 22, 2018
The Survey is addressed to Senior Loan Officers, Chief Credit Of
August 2, 2018
With this edition of the IIF Capital Flows Tracker, we introduce a new version of the EM Portfolio Flows Tracker. Our " Tracker 4.0 " provides a more
July 2, 2018
Non-resident portfolio outflows from emerging markets rose to $8 billion in June, following $6.3 billion of outflows in May However, our broader measu
June 4, 2018
Non-resident portfolio outflows from emerging markets accelerated to $12.3 billion in May from $0.3 billion in April EM debt and equity markets saw ev
May 3, 2018
Stronger dollar has spelled trouble for EM carry trades and local currency bonds Recent EM outflows now more on the debt side, in contrast to equity o
April 30, 2018
Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets ground to a halt in April, hurt by a sharp retrenchment in debt flows.' Portfolio debt and equity out
March 29, 2018
Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets saw a modest recovery in March after February's sharp decline EM debt and equity markets saw portfoli
March 1, 2018
Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets declined sharply in February, ending a 14-month streak of net inflows.' Against the backdrop of broad
February 21, 2018
Frontier markets have rewarded investors in recent years with high returns, lower volatility, and lower correlation with global assets.' However, mark
February 15, 2018
Non-resident capital flows to EMs are projected to rise modestly in 2018, approaching $1.3 trillion' However, FDI inflows will likely remain subdued-e