Entries for 'Debt Sustainability'

Some $10 trillion was added to the global debt mountain last year, bringing the total to a new record high of $303 trillion.

Economic recovery remains uneven and patchy for low and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs); Despite easing external debt strains, more than half of LLMICs are at high risk of—or already in—debt distress; Little information to date on how the G20 Common Framework is being implemented; Greater debt transparency could galvanize ESG investments in emerging and developing economies—a key COP26 theme.

Some $4.8 trillion was added to the global debt mountain in Q2 2021, bringing it to an all-time high of $296 trillion. Better news: the global debt/GDP ratio declined significantly in Q2 2021, though this follows a large spike in 2020.

Efforts to improve debt transparency are underway in both the private and public sectors; the IMF and World Bank, for example, provide technical assis...

Good investor relations practices call for better debt transparency that supports regular, meaningful debtor-creditor dialogue; Limited access to timely, accurate and clear data can hinder capital flows to developing countries, while improvements in debt transparency are associated with lower borrowing costs and higher sovereign credit ratings; In cases of default, fair debt restructuring requires active information-sharing between debtor and creditors.

High and rising sovereign debt levels have greatly increased the likelihood of further debt strains; Better sovereign debt crisis prevention and resolution is needed to reflect fundamental market changes in recent years; We believe that efforts to strengthen existing mechanisms should center on improving debt transparency, regular and meaningful private-public sector dialogue, and integrating ESG/SDG considerations—all will help borrowers’ market access.

Transparency around sovereign debt obligations remains limited, particularly for emerging and developing economies; International financial institutions could help by making more granular debt data available to the public; Greater clarity around the process, terms and conditions of sovereign debt restructuring would also support debt transparency.

Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The global debt-to-GDP ratio hit a new all-time high of over 322% in Q3 2019, with total debt reaching close to $253 trillion. Global debt is set to grow faster in 2020 and is estimated to exceed $257 trillion by the end of Q1 2020, driven mainly by non-financial sector debt. 

Negative-yielding debt hits a fresh record high of over $13 trillion; 75% of that is safe-haven government bonds; Low borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for EMs with high government financing needs; Climate change risks aren’t just domestic: over $29 trillion of G20 (mostly G7) cross-border investments are at risk. With awareness of these risks on the rise, our Green Flows Tracker shows net inflows of $2bn in Q2 (and record inflows for June); Insurer perspectives on LIBOR transition: the regulatory framework for EU insurers still requires a LIBOR-based term structure as the discount rate for insurance obligations.  

Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion—putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance 

Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes — but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong — but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product

Eking out the late-cycle rally; Sustained improvement in external funding conditions would be a boon for highly indebted EMs; After debt relief, many low-income countries have seen debt/GDP ratios rise sharply in recent years; Rising pension obligations burden mature economies—and some emerging markets as well