China's current account has traditionally registered large surpluses, but has swung into deficit this year based on data from Q1 through Q3, adding to the case that the RMB could be overvalued and needs to depreciate.
We turned more constructive on emerging markets some weeks ago, given that the EM sell-off eliminated some of the biggest FX overvaluations. But a
Argentina's Peso and the Turkish Lira have weakened substantially, with increasing concern in markets over potential contagion to other EMs. Non-re
Early this year we signaled rising EM risk , especially for Argentina and Turkey. We also flagged growing potential for contagion to the broader EM co
Changes in China's FX regime have been associated with capital outflows, notably the 2014 band widening and the "step" devaluation in August 2015.
A distinction is often made between hot money and more stable capital flows. We examine which non-resident capital flows to EM look most like hot mone
We recently examined the pattern of EM flows to emerging markets, where our innovation was to control for the role of reinvested earnings, which
We document the resilience of Euro zone bank deposits during past stress episodes. There is only one major Euro zone economy - Greece - where deposit
Foreign direct investment flows to EM look different than you think. This is because reinvested earnings constitute much of the FDI flow to EM, whe
The Argentinian Peso and Turkish Lira have fallen sharply this year, but spillovers to the broader emerging markets complex have been limited. We e
We develop a measure of core capital flows for Saudi Arabia, which has a similar intuition to widely-used core inflation metrics. Core CPI strips o
In a Global Macro Views in December we introduced BoP Nowcasts, "¦ which map commodity prices and capital flows into daily forecasts for the 2018 BoP.
We examine how EM reserve accumulation has fared in recent years. We compare the average pace of reserve accumulation from 2010 - 2014 to that since t