Entries for 'EM FX Fair Value'
April 27, 2023
We are preparing to update our exchange rate fair values in the coming weeks.
Markets have been especially focused on our Brazilian Real and Turkish ...
July 14, 2022
Last week we argued that the Japanese Yen is about to strengthen, …
as rising global recession fears cause markets to pull back on central bank hikes...
July 7, 2022
The Japanese Yen has weakened substantially this year, …
as rising global yields drove rate differentials against the Yen.
Underlying this ...
May 5, 2022
China’s RMB has fallen sharply against the Dollar recently, …
with many flagging parallels with the “step” devaluation in 2...
January 13, 2022
This Global Macro Views publishes our FX misalignment estimates for 2022, …
which incorporate our latest macroeconomic and balance of payment...
October 21, 2021
Large currency devaluations have a decidedly bad name, …
because they tend to be associated with chaos and disruption, …
even as the “dominant cur...
July 29, 2021
One year ago, markets were questioning Dollar reserve currency status, …
given large budget deficits that were being materially financed by Fed QE.
...
June 24, 2021
We have been vocal about our Brazilian Real fair value, …
which has signaled substantial undervaluation since mid-2020.
That undervaluation reflec...
March 4, 2021
We have been in the process of updating our FX valuation model.
This Global Macro Views publishes our misalignment estimates for 2021.
The biggest...
February 25, 2021
Last week we began the process of updating our EM FX fair values, …
with a discussion of material balance of payments rebalancing in Turkey.
Exces...
November 19, 2020
The Dollar is substantially overvalued against emerging markets.
We look at EM as two very distinct blocks: China and everybody else.
Our long-sta...
August 13, 2020
We have been getting many questions on our Turkish Lira fair value.
Many assume our fair value estimate will automatically keep weakening.
That is...
August 6, 2020
Markets are debating whether the Dollar is entering a secular decline.
We provide an overview of the main drivers of the Dollar in recent years.
T...
July 23, 2020
Our exchange rate fair value model rarely sends big overvaluation signals.
It flagged Turkey and Argentina in early 2018 and South Africa in late 20...
July 9, 2020
Our exchange rate fair value model rarely sends big overvaluation signals.
It flagged Turkey and Argentina in early 2018 and South Africa in late 20...
July 2, 2020
The COVID-19 shock is reshaping the EM landscape dramatically.
Current account deficits have turned to surplus in many places, ...
as imports comp...
June 4, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has seen many EMs drop their “fear of floating,” ...
with many currencies weakening at unprecedented speed and severity.
We see...
April 7, 2020
Emerging market currencies have experienced very large depreciations.
Ordinarily our exchange rate models would be signaling large undervaluations.
...
December 12, 2019
We scan key current account deficit countries across emerging markets, ...
looking at where the composition of financing is a source of vulnerabilit...
November 25, 2019
Last week we updated our EM exchange rate fair value estimates.
Large depreciations in recent years corrected sizeable overvaluations, ...
so tha...