Entries for 'External Risk'
November 8, 2022
We present our EM current account forecasts for next year.
Wide deficits will continue in Turkey, Hungary, and Philippines.
In a group of countries ...
October 11, 2022
We update our high-frequency tracking of EM trade balances, …
and discuss broader BoP developments for selected countries.
Some like Brazil continue...
July 19, 2022
India’s trade deficit in H1 was the widest since the taper tantrum.
Imports of deeply discounted Russian oil have risen sharply, …
but won’t...
May 10, 2022
We track EM trade balances as a proxy for current accounts.
Imports increased well past pre-covid levels everywhere, …
but strong exports prevente...
April 19, 2022
Core inflation momentum is high in emerging markets, …
but output is significantly below trend in many countries, …
making demand an unlikely sour...
March 22, 2022
Colombia ran the widest current account deficit in EM last year, …
and imports remained extraordinarily strong in January-February.
High commodity...
February 1, 2022
Chile’s economy overheated due to expansionary fiscal policy.
Both fiscal and monetary policies are turning contractionary, …
Budgeted spending cu...
January 11, 2022
Trade deficits in several EMs are below pre-pandemic levels, …
even though imports more than fully recovered in late 2021.
We expect manageable wi...
November 9, 2021
The covid recession was deep in India, as was the impact of delta.
This is not unique to India but initial conditions in early 2020 were, …
...