Entries for 'Fiscal Risk'
March 7, 2023
Lacking market access, frontier markets will face funding gaps.
Covering Ecuador’s funding gap for about $1.5 billion in 2023-24, …
should not be to...
February 14, 2023
We discuss external bond recovery value scenarios, …
consistent with Sri Lanka’s restructuring targets, …
while illustrating the importance of Chine...
February 7, 2023
High-yield EM credit has done very well in recent months, …
but we remain concerned about quite a few frontier markets.
El Salvador’s outlook will r...
January 31, 2023
We present recovery value scenarios for Ghana’s external debt, …
that are consistent with the country’s restructuring targets, …
and a set of fairly...
January 24, 2023
Lula proposed an unexpectedly large fiscal package in late 2022, …
adding to concerns about policy risk and coming fiscal rule changes.
The governme...
December 13, 2022
The legislature has shrunk Lula’s spending package somewhat, …
but the overall fiscal picture going into 2023 is still too weak, …
given overall pol...
December 6, 2022
We assess 2023 budgets put forward by a group of ten EMs.
Fiscal deficits will be larger than in 2019 almost universally, …
including countries that...
November 15, 2022
We assess the fiscal position the Lula administration inherits, …
and discuss the implications of possible spending packages.
Fiscal accounts will b...
July 25, 2022
The July 2022 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events.
July 5, 2022
Brazil is easing fiscal policy by possibly more than 1% of GDP, …
as elections approach amid high inflation and social discontent.
In 2022, revenu...
May 17, 2022
Long-term US yields are rising rapidly fast and global growth slowing, ...
a combination that could prove challenging for some emerging markets.
...
April 12, 2022
EMs funded large fiscal deficits smoothly in the covid crisis.
Foreigners and FX issuance played a minor role in most EMs.
Domestic bond buyers ar...
April 5, 2022
Chile and Colombia ran very wide twin deficits last year, …
and their economies overheated due to policy stimulus.
Very different fiscal policy wi...
March 8, 2022
Very few EMs will fully normalize fiscal deficits this year.
South Africa will but we don’t think adjustment is strong.
Primary spending cuts in 2...
February 15, 2022
We have been more constructive than consensus on Brazil, …
despite the relaxation of the spending cap agreed last year, …
spending in 2022 will st...
February 8, 2022
India’s FY23 budget sticks to very gradual fiscal consolidation, …
lifts investment and aims for mild adjustment through FY26.
This makes the budg...
September 7, 2021
Peru’s fiscal policy stance remains expansionary this year, …
but the government says it is committed to the tight fiscal rule.
The s...