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April 2013 Global Economic Monitor

The good news first: the global expansion remains on track. Confidence in the global manufacturing sector remains at a level consistent with modest gr

Egypt: IMF Agreement Could Arrest Economic Deterioration

Egypt urgently needs to rectify serious macroeconomic imbalances as a prelude to tackling deep embedded structural distortions in the economy. Growth

Japan: Abenomics- High Hopes

Hopes are high that the new Japanese economic policy will finally end deflation. In the short-term, forceful monetary and fiscal stimulus will support

Tunisia: Widening Twin Deficits are a Source of Concern

External and fiscal deficits widen, driven by higher imports and large increases in current government spending, respectively. We expect both deficits

Tunisia: At Political Crossroads with a Convalescent Economy

A new coalition government was formed in March. Tunisia's political transition by end-2013 hinges on agreement on a constitution followed by general e

Uruguay: Brewing Fiscal Imbalances

A rising ratio of current primary spending to GDP, driven by rigid spending items such as salaries and entitlements, has narrowed fiscal policy flexib

Slovenia: Next in Line?

Banking issues differ greatly from Cyprus, with Slovenian bank assets only one-third the EU average of 3.5 times GDP. The largest banks are state-owne

India: Fiscal Deficit Contained

The government's renewed commitment to containing the large fiscal imbalance is underscored by stepped-up spending restraint since September, although

Bahrain: Fiscal Pressures Persist

Bahrain is the only country in the GCC that is running a fiscal deficit. A sharply higher level of recurrent expenditure was locked in last year follo

Cyprus: Out Of The Fire Into The Frying Pan

The March 24 agreement with the Troika put an end to a prolonged period of uncertainty, but is likely to have a lasting adverse effect on the economy.



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