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Publication Results for
Economic Views: Financing Gaps in Frontier Markets
March 07, 2023
Lacking market access, frontier markets will face funding gaps. Covering Ecuador’s funding gap for about $1.5 billion in 2023-24, … sho...
Economic Views: Sri Lanka Recovery Value Scenarios
February 14, 2023
We discuss external bond recovery value scenarios, … consistent with Sri Lanka’s restructuring targets, … while illustrating the...
Economic Views: Frontier Markets in Distress
February 07, 2023
High-yield EM credit has done very well in recent months, … but we remain concerned about quite a few frontier markets. El Salvador’s o...
Economic Views: Ghana Recovery Value Scenarios
January 31, 2023
We present recovery value scenarios for Ghana’s external debt, … that are consistent with the country’s restructuring targets, &he...
Economic Views: Brazil’s Latest Fiscal Measures
January 24, 2023
Lula proposed an unexpectedly large fiscal package in late 2022, … adding to concerns about policy risk and coming fiscal rule changes. The g...
Economic Views: Brazil’s Fiscal Package
December 13, 2022
The legislature has shrunk Lula’s spending package somewhat, … but the overall fiscal picture going into 2023 is still too weak, &hellip...
Economic Views: The EM Fiscal Outlook in 2023
December 06, 2022
We assess 2023 budgets put forward by a group of ten EMs. Fiscal deficits will be larger than in 2019 almost universally, … including countri...
Economic Views: Brazil’s Fiscal Outlook
November 15, 2022
We assess the fiscal position the Lula administration inherits, … and discuss the implications of possible spending packages. Fiscal accounts...
Economic Views: Brazil’s Fiscal Easing
July 05, 2022
Brazil is easing fiscal policy by possibly more than 1% of GDP, … as elections approach amid high inflation and social discontent. In 2022,...
Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs
May 17, 2022
Long-term US yields are rising rapidly fast and global growth slowing, ... a combination that could prove challenging for some emerging markets. ...
Economic Views: EM Fiscal Deficit Financing
April 12, 2022
EMs funded large fiscal deficits smoothly in the covid crisis. Foreigners and FX issuance played a minor role in most EMs. Domestic bond buyers ar...
Economic Views: Twin Deficits in Chile and Colombia
April 05, 2022
Chile and Colombia ran very wide twin deficits last year, … and their economies overheated due to policy stimulus. Very different fiscal po...
Economic Views: EM Fiscal Adjustment post COVID
March 08, 2022
Very few EMs will fully normalize fiscal deficits this year. South Africa will but we don’t think adjustment is strong. Primary spending cut...
Economic Views: Brazil’s Tax Cuts and Fiscal Risk
February 15, 2022
We have been more constructive than consensus on Brazil, … despite the relaxation of the spending cap agreed last year, … spending i...
Economic Views: India’s FY23 Budget and Fiscal Risk
February 08, 2022
India’s FY23 budget sticks to very gradual fiscal consolidation, … lifts investment and aims for mild adjustment through FY26. This m...
Economic Views: Fiscal Adjustment in Peru
September 07, 2021
Peru’s fiscal policy stance remains expansionary this year, … but the government says it is committed to the tight fiscal rule. The s...
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