Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.
Waiting for higher wage inflation has been like watching paint dry. That is about to change with October data on average hourly earnings. A large base.
Many emerging markets have sold off sharply this year, and a hawkish shift from the Fed could add fuel to the fire. We examine Fed policy through t.
Why has there not been a more pronounced rise in inflation, "¦ given that standard indicators of slack point to a tight economy? One possibility is th.
Market pricing remains far below the "dots" in 2019 and 2020, reflecting in part a perception that the Fed is a dovish institution. We examine past.
The mapping from wider fiscal deficits to the current account has been imperfect, reflecting offsetting moves in other sectors of the economy and a.
One month ago, average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, sparking anxiety that the US economy may - finally - be starting to overheat. We ar.
Last year we published a series of reports on red versus blue states, "¦ which showed that red state labor markets are materially lagging blue ones. W.
Longer-term Treasury yields have risen sharply year-to-date. A key question for markets is whether the sell-off will continue. We examine the various.
Trade policy is becoming a key area of focus for the administration. We examine the adjustment in the US current account in recent years, looking t.
Low inflation has been a conundrum in recent years, "¦ but currently nowhere more so than in the Euro zone and Japan. We evaluate how G-3 inflation ha.
Red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs boom. But the divide between red and blue states goes deeper than just job creation. We develop.
We have shown that red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs recovery. We examine three possible drivers: (i) demographics; (ii) opioids;.
We compare the US labor force participation rate to other G10 economies. The decline in the US participation rate is a clear outlier, especially wh.
Red states are falling behind blue states in the labor market recovery, a phenomenon we documented in a Global Macro Views earlier this week. We fo.
Red states are not benefitting the same as blue states from jobs growth, with the nature of th.
The October labor market data on balance were a hawkish signal for the Fed, because the most dovish component - the drop in average hourly earnings gr.
With the announcement of the next Fed Chair expected imminently, there is a lot of speculation over how policy might differ across the various candida.
This week's reduction of asset purchases from the ECB will try to accomplish a "dovish taper," whereby withdrawal of stimulus will likely be accompani.
Concerns about "premature deindustrialization" featured in several panel sessions at our Annual Member Meetings last week. This Global Macro Views pro.
In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo.
We examine how market pricing for key central banks has moved over the past year and update our forecast for the G-3 central banks. We continue to exp.
We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process.
We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist.
We look more closely at the recent pick up in core inflation, and find that much of it can be explained by just three sectors, all related to tourism.
We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -.
Ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, we discuss the tensions facing the Fed. Markets are expecting a slightly hawkish outcome given how dovish market.
We provide some background for the discussion on taxing foreign held income. We document the size and nature of reinvested earnings that US-based firm.
Since our initial piece, the participation rate has drifted up, a trend that - should it continue - would tend to slow further declines in the unemplo.
We start to examine why average hourly earnings growth is so low. We show that the degree of dispersion in wage growth across sectors has risen, even.
We focus on sovereign financing requirements for Euro Area countries. Using data on debt issuance and maturity, Italy stands out among the euro-area c.
We examine the decline in core PCE inflation, looking at individual components within the inflation basket. We find that the decline can be accounted.
We examine the labor market "churn" and perform a sensitivity analysis on the US unemployment rate. Factoring in some slowing in hiring and a gradual.
The Euro zone is a unique opportunity to examine Phillips curves at the country level. We examine for which countries within the Euro zone the Phillip.
We look at the maturity dimension of central bank asset purchases. We show how the average maturity of central bank bond holdings has been evolving, a.
Why is Retail Employment Falling so Sharply? We examine whether changing shopping habits can explain large job losses. Our results show that the subs.
The ECB's ability to extend its purchase program beyond 2017 will be limited by a lack of public-sector debt eligible for purchase under the public-se.
Mr. Phillips Goes to Washington In the aftermath of the Fed meeting, and following our previous analysis, we show that the Phillips curve plays an im.
This GMV begins our look at how QE affected balance sheets, by compiling flow of funds data on supply and demand of government bonds as consistently.
We are able to explain the trajectory of core inflation using a simple list of macro factors - including exchange rate movements, commodity prices and.