Emerging market resilience: Emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have shown remarkable resilience year to date in 2024, with Eurobond issuance already exceeding annual totals reached in both 2022 and 2023.

Productivity on the wane: Rising government debt levels have coincided with a worrying slowdown in productivity growth across major economies, including China and the U.S.

EV and hybrid vehicle sales have skyrocketed, rising more than eightfold over the past five years. While market growth has been slower in recent months, we expect this expansion to continue at a more gradual pace in 2024.

While the Philippines, Indonesia, T rkiye, and Brazil stand out on best practices in investor relations (IR), Sub-Saharan African countries have made great strides in their IR and debt transparency practices over the past year a strong support for the 2024 rebound in investor appetite for EM debt, with significant potential for supporting future EM capital flows.

Agriculture is is around 4% of the global economy, with over half of global production coming from China, India, and the U.S. Given the growing policy focus on this vital sector, we are launching a new IIF Sustainable Agriculture Working Group.

AI s ability to source and process mass data is a game-changer for sustainability impact analysis, compliance, and innovation. The AI toolkit can help improve metrics and reduce the cost of compliance, e.g. in ESG disclosure and risk management.

Achieving a net-zero global economy by 2050 will require significant financial investment in emerging markets and developing countries which by 2050 will represent a much larger portion of the global economy and population than today.

Geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and the rise of industrial policies were key themes during this year s Spring Meetings.

Despite strong incoming economic data, rising protectionism, heightened geopolitical tensions, and high government debt levels are casting a shadow on medium to long-term growth global prospects.

Transitioning towards a sustainable agricultural system is crucial to address biodiversity loss and nature-related risks on the path to a net-zero economy. This shift will be quite challenging perhaps even more so than the clean energy transition given that over 330 million people across 78 countries are currently facing an acute level of food insecurity.

Nature and biodiversity are emerging as critical areas of market focus, attracting increasing attention from corporates, financial institutions, and policymakers.

Sovereign credit ratings are fundamental to ensuring that countries particularly vulnerable low-income countries have access to long-term financing from international private investors. Enhancing dialogue between borrowing countries and credit rating agencies via robust investor relations programs can better inform credit ratings and support access to international markets.

Early 2024 saw a sharp surge in ESG fund flows, driven by a rally in tech shares (which are heavily weighted in ESG indices given their high ESG scores). In February, inflows to ESG fixed income funds reached their highest in over a year. Looking ahead, a synchronized series of rate cuts by major central banks could have a positive impact on ESG fund flows, particularly in the second half of 2024.

The resurgence of geopolitical blocs has coincided with a significant increase in regional conflicts over the past decade while contributing to stagnation in international trade and capital flows and delays in sovereign debt workouts.

Beyond carbon emissions, addressing methane emissions is vital for achieving a net-zero economy by 2050. Despite increasing pledges to reduce methane emissions, these efforts have been limited in scope due to the wide range of emission sources (making standardized solutions difficult) and the high cost of financing emissions reductions.

EM Eurobond issuance remains weak in early 2024, with higher global rates crowding out investment flows to riskier emerging markets and market access constrained by policy risks including lengthy and contentious debt workouts.

While rising geopolitical tensions create challenges for transition finance, risks are still in line with historical norms. However, continued stagnation in global trade and capital flows suggests de-globalization could stall a net zero future. Strategic trade wars likely inevitable on the road to Net Zero will bring the key role of export credit agencies to the fore.

The U.S. has temporarily lifted economic sanctions on Venezuela, leading to a sharp resurgence of investor interest. Heightened tensions over the Guyana Essequibo region and the recent order to arrest opposition members in Venezuela seem to undermine Venezuela s negotiated position to end sanctions and raise the possibility of the reimposition of snapback sanctions.

Rising global tensions and political divides could hinder multilateral efforts to achieve sustainable development goals. Global economic performance remains subdued, with significant regional disparities; a contributing factor has been the prolonged stagnation in global capital flows over the past 15 years amid post-financial crisis regulatory initiatives.

Sovereign debt vulnerabilities in emerging markets and developing economies already worrying are expected to intensify in the face of higher borrowing costs.

Our New York Climate Week events last week which included an IIF Transition Finance Workshop, an IIF/TCW Blended Finance Roundtable, and the launch of the IIF Global Debt Monitor focused on the changing landscape for net-zero transition planning and addressing the challenges of mobilizing capital for climate action.

Over the past 15 years, EM government debt levels have soared, with domestic debt accounting for much of the increase. Debt issued under foreign law now constitutes only about 10% of total borrowing by EM governments.

Emerging market sovereign borrowers have raised some $85 billion from international debt markets to date this year, up from over $60 billion during the same period last year. However, this pace is still significantly weaker than it was pre-pandemic ($150 billion per year on average from 2016-2019).

Global clean energy investment continues to outpace spending on fossil fuels, largely driven by China and mature markets. While the subdued global economic outlook is weighing on commodity prices including energy transition metals and minerals the growing push to shift to solar and wind energy should boost demand for aluminum, copper, and rare-earth minerals on the path to net-zero economy.

While worldwide efforts are being made to shift to renewables and alternative fuels, fossil fuels are still projected to be a major source of energy by the end of the century, accounting for nearly 25% of global supply; Given this continued reliance on fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies have a vital role to play in addressing climate change but are currently projected to fall short of their potential on the path to net-zero.

The strong momentum in climate pledges and climate investment flows in recent years is encouraging but many publicly listed firms still have business practices that are not aligned with keeping global warming < 2 C.

High and rising global debt levels have created a slow-burning crisis, with countries increasingly vulnerable to future shocks after the unprecedented surge in government debt resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Early and up-front capital spending is crucial for managing the long-term costs of the energy transition; Achieving net zero emissions will require extensive investments in new and innovative technologies, with nearly half of emission reductions expected to come from technologies currently under development.

At our IIF Sustainable Finance and Global Debt & Financial Stability Roundtables last week, key themes included net zero transition finance as well as the impact of higher funding costs for vulnerable sovereign and corporate borrowers.

Despite the urgency of fighting climate change, the exploration and development of new energy technologies to replace fossil fuels could take many generations. Strong policy support to incentivize front-loaded investment could significantly shorten the time that it takes to develop new green technologies improving nuclear energy provision, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, biomass etc.

Just Energy Partnerships launched at COP26 to help emerging economies shift to clean energy aim to mobilize international public and private capital to accelerate electrification in emerging and developing economies. Most existing JETP funding commitments are from traditional development finance institutions, including multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, a key goal of JETPs is to leverage public funding to catalyze private capital.

The external debt burden of many emerging markets surged in 2022 as EM currencies fell against the USD. Given the high risk of cyclical depreciation and ensuing currency mismatch, sovereign debtors raising foreign currency funds should consider appropriate hedging or other risk mitigation tools.

The growing links between financial leverage and non-financial risks (e.g. climate) are complex and will require new data tools and metrics to monitor and address.

ESG backlash will continue to be a headwind for market development, but there are many reasons for optimism...

At COP15, almost 200 countries reached an agreement to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 and achieve recovery and restoration by 2050. The deal should speed adoption of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) framework to assess and disclose nature-related risks and opportunities, while accelerating development of nature-positive financial markets.

Amid fears of global recession and USD strength, prices for energy transition metals have subsided in 2022 although transition planning and sustained expansion in renewable energy capacity will underpin demand.

Climate finance flows are on track to reach a fresh high of $915 billion in 2022; Sustained policy support amid heightened concerns over energy security should accelerate the expansion in renewable energy capacity, while increasing energy-efficiency related investment.

Despite growing concern, sovereign defaults have been limited this year, with most triggered by geopolitical tensions; China s government debt reached an all-time high of 77% of GDP; A softer U.S. dollar amid expectations of a policy-induced slowdown in U.S. growth should provide some breathing room for EM borrowers.

With funding costs on the rise across emerging markets, having strong investor relations (IR) programs is more important than ever to help ensure access to affordable and sustainable capital flows.

Climate finance and ESG investing were top themes at our IIF Annual Membership Meeting and the IMF/WB Annuals; Energy security concerns, inflationary pressures and budget strains are jeopardizing timetables for climate goals.

At around $1.3 trillion, ESG loans account for over 30% of the total ESG debt universe. Global ESG loan issuance has soared from less than $40 billion in 2013 to $265 billion by Aug. 2022, mostly due to increased interest in sustainability-linked loans. ESG loan markets offer great potential for mobilizing climate finance--including for emerging and developing economies.

Emerging markets are playing a key role in shaping the global sustainable finance agenda this year, ahead of COP27 in Egypt and the G20 Summit in Indonesia in November.

Despite lingering concerns over the global economic slowdown, the corporate earnings outlook is holding up relatively well, especially in mature markets. However, there are pockets of weakness….

Russia/Ukraine-related pressure on global food prices has eased slightly over the past few months, but the cost of fertilizer is still at its highest level in over a decade, fueling concerns about food security.

We extend coverage of our emerging market (EM) ESG scorecard to more vulnerable frontier markets (FMs); While EMs have a higher average ESG score than FMs, the top 3 in FM score better than EM s highest scorer.

While flows to ESG funds fell for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 2022, they remain in positive territory year to date in sharp contrast to large outflows from conventional funds; Moreover, recent weeks have seen indications of a robust pickup in investor appetite for ESG-aligned debt and equity; ESG debt issuance reached $330 billion in Q2 2022, up from $315 billion in Q1, helped by surging issuance in China; In contrast, total issuance in voluntary carbon offset markets continued to decline in Q2 2022, with most of the volume coming from India, the U.S. and China.

We revisit carbon intensity metrics for EM economies, such as CO2/GDP (with factors CO2/Energy and Energy/GDP).

Total global car sales are on track to hit their lowest level since 2010 as global recession fears loom.

Offset issuance in voluntary carbon markets has slowed this year amidst concerns over excess offset supply; Rising corporate net-zero pledges and technology advances (e.g. blockchain-based protocols) should support market growth, however, lack of price transparency and standardization remains a significant barrier for market growth; The finalized Article 6 Rulebook could spur efforts to integrate voluntary and compliance markets over time; Defining global threshold standards for high quality carbon credits should help bring greater price transparency and liquidity to voluntary carbon markets; A large share of carbon offset projects originates from emerging markets; pure removal-based offsets remain too scarce.

Mounting geopolitical tensions risk undermining the international collaboration needed to address global challenges, including efforts to scale up climate finance; Yet delays to climate policies may prove costlier than swift action-which would further exacerbate public debt burdens; Near-term sovereign debt vulnerabilities in major emerging markets have increased substantially this year, but less so than in 2020; these growing debt strains make the challenge of sourcing climate finance more difficult still.

Rising borrowing costs and the strength of the USD will exacerbate debt vulnerabilities in emerging markets; With EM budget deficits still running above pre-pandemic levels, higher and more volatile energy prices could force some countries to increase public spending even further; Effective investor relations (IR) programs can play a vital role during times of diminishing market confidence to mitigate contagion by providing investors with a better understanding of policy goals; However, successful IR practices require timely dissemination of relevant information beyond central government debt obligations and fiscal operations. Countries still need to provide more data on ESG priorities and progress.

Country-level ESG scores offer a practical starting point to compare ESG performance across investment destinations; While not a substitute for comprehensive ESG due diligence, ESG scores also help monitor trends over time; Chile, Brazil, and Poland have the top aggregate ESG scores in our sample of emerging markets, reflecting their strong environmental performance, though Poland has more scope to reduce carbon intensity; South Africa, Vietnam, Russia, and India score in the lower range on the ESG factors that we track in our scoring.

Across the mature and emerging markets that we cover in our Global Debt Monitor, non-financial corporate debt is at record high of near $90 trillion over $12.5 trillion higher than pre-Covid levels; Emerging markets recorded more than half of this buildup in non-financial corporate debt an increase of some $7.5 trillion since 2019. Of note, Chinese corporates have stepped up borrowing even more in 2022; With the Ukraine-Russia war disrupting the global economic recovery, corporate valuations have come under pressure as global funding conditions tighten rapidly; Fully one-third of small-sized firms in mature markets are already having difficulty covering interest expenses.

The rapid buildup in sovereign debt levels over the past 15 years has greatly increased the risk of further debt strains especially in highly-indebted developing countries as global rates climb; higher food and energy prices also hurt; Timely sovereign debt workouts are a challenge: studies suggest that official creditors are slower to coordinate in resolving arrears than private creditors concerning, as a large portion of low-income countries debt is owed to official creditors; The updated Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring offer an effective framework for debt crisis prevention and resolution, highlighting the best market-based practices to promote sustained market access.

Against a challenging market backdrop, flows to ESG funds fell to just $75 billion in Q1 2022-a sharp slowdown from their recent pace. Inflows in March ($15 billion) were at their weakest since March 2020; Sustainable debt issuance dropped to $285 billion in Q1, down 30% from Q4 2021; However, investor demand will remain underpinned by the continued acceleration in corporate net-zero pledges.

Despite rapidly growing use of renewables, many EU countries still rely heavily on fossil fuel energy; Russia currently provides the lion s share of EU energy: 38%, 23%, and 46% of imported gas, oil, and coal respectively; High and volatile fossil fuel prices should accelerate Europe s transition to clean energy over the medium term ; but greater demand and higher prices for non-Russian gas sources could push Asia towards cheaper coal; Change could come quickly: the REPowerEU plan aims to cut EU reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds in 2022.

Global climate finance flows hit a record $810 billion in 2021 still well short of estimated needs; To bridge the massive climate financing gaps in emerging markets, international private capital needs to be mobilized requiring appropriate incentives and hospitable investment environments; While still niche, blended finance using development finance to catalyze private capital has great potential; To date, blended finance has mobilized some $70 billion of international private capital to support climate mitigation and adaptation in emerging markets.

Global sukuk issuance surged to a record $250 billion in 2021, up from $180 billion in 2020; Only $5 billion (2% of the total) was linked to environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors-still a niche market; Indonesia has the largest green sukuk market, followed by Malaysia and Saudi Arabia; A coherent, widely-accepted taxonomy and classification framework would support further ESG sukuk market development.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to intensify, we have updated our EM scorecard to provide a snapshot of rela-tive vulnerabilities across 18 major emerging market economies, with a focus on debt and ESG concerns; Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and rapidly rising borrowing costs, Turkey, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland appear particularly vulnerable to changes in global risk appetite; By our yardstick, the Philippines, Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Colombia look better insualted than many EM peers; On ESG metrics, South Africa, Indonesia, and the Philippines all face significant challenges, including on carbon effi-ciency, environmental protection, and a range of social issues.

SMEs comprise the vast majority of businesses globally, accounting for significant shares of GDP and employment; The majority of SMEs have insufficient access to financing: this gap stands at 18% of global GDP, and is higher in many EMDEs; Few SMEs measure and disclose their carbon emissions-a big challenge as global firms decarbonize their supply chains; New tools and initiatives have emerged to scale up sustainable finance for SMEs, including green credit guarantee schemes.

EM debt is fast approaching to $100 trillion, driven in large part by Chinese non-financial corporates; Moreover, emerging market governments are increasingly reliant on short-term debt.

Emerging markets are entering the 2022 Fed rate cycle with much higher debt: government debt is up over 20% since 2019; Of concern: heightened political and social pressures could hinder efforts to bring down budget deficits, expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels in 2022/23. Looming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Philippines could add to the pressure; Watch the high-yield space: while investment grade Eurobond issuance has been strong, high-yield has faltered this year; Among major EMs, Turkey, China, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia have the largest borrowing needs in Eurobond markets.

An orderly transition to Net Zero will require some degree of accommodative fiscal policy; A surge in demand for lithium-ion batteries could disrupt commodity markets, leading to supply/demand imbalances and upward pressure on inflation. However, changes in consumption patterns could benefit both the environment and price stability; Australia, Chile, and China are benefitting the most from higher demand for lithium amid surging EV sales.

Debt investors seek more ESG issuance from emerging markets as the financial materiality of ESG becomes increasingly clear; Sovereign ESG scoring is no easy task dozens of indicators and differing approaches across providers cloud the picture; Ingrained income bias: sovereign ESG scores are highly correlated with income per capita, which could deter flows to EMDEs; Solutions to income bias include inclusive wealth accounting" and adjusting ESG scores for a country s level of development.

Investors poured over $580 billion into ESG funds in 2021-up from $320 billion in 2020; Sustainable debt issuance nearly doubled to more than $1.4 trillion in 2021, vs. $720 billion in 2020; Strong demand for voluntary carbon offsets has brought total offset issuance to over 350 MtCO2e.

As pandemic strains eased, EM sovereign Eurobond issuance subsided to pre-COVID levels in 2021 ($145 billion), with Chile, Mexico, and UAE the top issuers. With global rates set to rise in 2022, and still-high funding needs, EM sovereign issuance is expected to remain broadly stable at $150-$160 billion this year.

There is clear consensus that carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is critical to achieving net-zero ambitions, including in many national government plans. Carbon capture could lead to 5-6 Gt of yearly CO2 emissions reductions by 2050, equivalent to 1/6th of current annual emissions.

Nearly 20 countries are pursuing hydrogen strategies to help curb emissions, with another 20+ poised to follow suit; Current hydrogen production processes are carbon-intensive, creating 900Mt of CO2 emissions/year-2.5% of all emissions; "Green" hydrogen produced with zero emissions can help decarbonize heavy industry, transportation, and power generation; High (but declining) costs of electrolyser equipment and renewable energy are the chief obstacles for scaling green hydrogen.

Central banks project that the transition to net-zero emissions will be inflationary, especially over the course of the next decade; "Greenflation" could be even higher, as the need to rapidly scale up infrastructure investment may boost commodity prices; Climate hazards put upward pressure on food prices, while greening agriculture may trigger unfavorable food price dynamics; Projected global oil capex shortfall of $600bn to 2030: underinvestment could mean supply-demand imbalance, higher prices; Persistently insufficient green R&D means that non-carbon energy alternatives will remain expensive as uptake increases.

Nuclear power has reduced carbon emissions by an estimated 60Gt over the past 50 years (nearly 2 years’ worth), but faces a potential decline in capacity by over two-thirds by 2040, as nuclear fleets age in mature markets. If no new nuclear capacity is built, this could add 4Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions by 2040-a step in the wrong direction.

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)-which would charge importers of steel, aluminum, and other inputs a tax equivalent to the EU’s domestic carbon price-calls for a gradual phase-in of reporting "embedded emissions"; From 2023, reporting on iron, steel, aluminum, fertilizer, electricity, and cement will take effect, and importers will start paying a tariff on these products from 2026; In 2020, the EU imported some $50 billion in "CBAM products" from countries outside of the EU Emissions Trading System; Russia, China, and Turkey export the most CBAM products to the EU; Italy and Germany are by far the largest importers.

Economic recovery remains uneven and patchy for low and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs); Despite easing external debt strains, more than half of LLMICs are at high risk of or already in debt distress; Little information to date on how the G20 Common Framework is being implemented; Greater debt transparency could galvanize ESG investments in emerging and developing economies a key COP26 theme.

ESG and sustainable finance themes were in focus at last week’s IIF Annual Membership Meeting; Tackling climate change requires a major surge in green R&D investment to reduce reliance on carbon-intensive activities; A broadly-agreed mechanism for carbon pricing would help decision-makers better assess both climate risks and opportunities; International financial institutions could play an even larger role in promoting ESG market development in emerging markets.

ESG funds saw net inflows of $110 billion in Q3 2021-the slowest pace of inflows of the past four quarters-of this total, emerging market securities attracted a sub-par $4.8 billion of ESG fund flows-less than 5% of the total; LatAm received the largest share of ESG fixed-income flows, while EM Asia attracted the most ESG equity flows; Substantial divergence in ESG fund classifications highlights the lack of commonly accepted disclosure standards; Around 20% of the EU fund universe is classified as ESG under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR).

The food production cycle generates 35% of all GHG emissions globally, with animal-based food production generating twice the emissions of plant-based foods. Beef alone emits 8.4% of all GHGs; Public-private partnerships in agriculture are needed to promote sustainable agriculture practices; Voluntary carbon markets can play a crucial role in mobilizing international capital for sustainable agriculture.

Agriculture employs over one billion people globally and comprises a large share of GDP in many developing economies ; and, while representing only 3.5% of global GDP, agriculture is responsible for 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions; Greening agriculture production is key for reaching net zero--while also ensuring food security and physical risk mitigation ; which will require adopting much more efficient agricultural production and consumption practices.

The ESG-aligned fund universe has grown to over $2.5 trillion up from around $1.5 trillion a year ago; The U.S. dollar is on track to overtake the euro as the top currency for ESG fund denomination; Investors poured some $260 billion into ESG-aligned equity, bond, and mixed-allocation funds in the first half of the year; However, emerging markets remain largely underrepresented in ESG funds, highlighting significant room for growth; Carbon prices hit record highs see the latest edition of our Chartbook.

The global sustainable investment universe-all asset classes-topped $45 trillion in 2020, up from $30 trillion in 2018; At $17.5 trillion, fixed income is the largest sustainable investing asset class, though "ESG-labeled" debt is only $3 trillion.

Global sustainability-linked debt issuance (loans and bonds) is on track to surpass $320bn in 2021 – triple 2020’s totals; With ambitious climate/ESG finance targets, financial firms are the biggest issuers of sustainability-linked loans this year.

Returns on green bond indices tend to be more volatile than for conventional bond benchmarks, with significant differences across sectors. Overall, green bonds exhibit similar volatility-adjusted returns as conventional bonds.

The global infrastructure gap to 2040 is $15 trn; EMDEs need to invest 4.5% of GDP per year on infrastructure towards SDGs; Public action: rising clean energy R&D budgets, new U.S. infrastructure deal, greening the BRI, G7 "Build Back Better World.".

Good investor relations practices call for better debt transparency that supports regular, meaningful debtor-creditor dialogue; Limited access to timely, accurate and clear data can hinder capital flows to developing countries, while improvements in debt transparency are associated with lower borrowing costs and higher sovereign credit ratings; In cases of default, fair debt restructuring requires active information-sharing between debtor and creditors.

High and rising sovereign debt levels have greatly increased the likelihood of further debt strains; Better sovereign debt crisis prevention and resolution is needed to reflect fundamental market changes in recent years; We believe that efforts to strengthen existing mechanisms should center on improving debt transparency, regular and meaningful private-public sector dialogue, and integrating ESG/SDG considerations-all will help borrowers’ market access.

Transparency around sovereign debt obligations remains limited, particularly for emerging and developing economies; International financial institutions could help by making more granular debt data available to the public; Greater clarity around the process, terms and conditions of sovereign debt restructuring would also support debt transparency.

Net zero: 50% of emissions reductions needed over 2030-2050 will rely on technologies currently still under development; R&D is urgently needed to reduce green premiums, but there is a clean energy R&D annual shortfall of $225bn; Policy action is key: government incentives and risk mitigation can galvanize private investment into clean energy R&D.

Deeper "green" real estate markets are needed to accelerate ESG integration in global financial markets; As the world’s largest asset class, real estate is responsible for nearly 40% of global carbon emissions; Amid growing populations and housing demand, sustainable design practices are crucial for keeping a lid on emissions; Sustainability-linked real estate securities markets are still small, despite significant climate hazards and potential damage.

Financial firms are rapidly stepping up climate commitments, increasingly to net-zero emissions targets; However, comparing targets is challenging in the absence of widely agreed GHG accounting standards for "financed emissions"; Demand for high-quality carbon credits is set to accelerate as firms seek ways to meet net-zero commitments.

Government debt levels in emerging markets are rising rapidly as pandemic and SDG-related spending needs ramp up; Prioritizing growth-boosting green investments could help offset the anticipated surge in debt ratios; The good news: near-term sovereign debt vulnerabilities in major emerging markets have eased back to pre-pandemic levels.

Cross-border climate finance flows to emerging markets were around $80 billion in 2020-less than 8% of total EM inflows; Despite a strong pickup in recent months, private capital inflows geared to sustainable investing in emerging markets and developing countries remain limited-well below levels needed to bridge SDG investment gaps; With many emerging markets increasingly reliant on portfolio debt financing, "greening" EM bond markets should help drive international capital towards sustainable EM investments.

Using well-established metrics, we review a number of ESG rankings to encompass social factors-health, education etc.; Unsurprisingly, mature markets tend to score better on social performance. Emerging markets have scope to boost social performance, notably on issues related to gender equality.

The ESG-labelled bond universe has exploded over the past decade, from $15 billion in 2010 to over $1.3 trillion in 2020; Year-to-date fund flows into ESG bonds are running at a record pace of over $30 billion; ESG bonds have weathered the current bond market selloff well, with notable outperformance in carbon intensive sectors.

With an increasing number of firms and governments committing to net zero targets, a wide variety of carbon pricing schemes have sprung up in recent years.; Observed carbon prices range from less than $1 to nearly $140 per ton-covering about 22% of global emissions; Finding an optimal price of carbon is difficult, posing conceptual, technical, and political challenges.

While climate change is now top of the policy agenda in the U.S., broader environmental issues are also in the global spotlight; Developed markets score higher on environmental protection: France, Germany and Denmark lead the way; Emerging markets tend to fare less well on environmental protection: India, China, and Turkey score lowest. That said…; …mature markets can "export" environmental threats by importing goods and services that harm the environment elsewhere.

2020 saw a record number of sovereign bond defaults: Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, Lebanon, Suriname, and Zambia; However, most low-income economies continue to roll over their debt obligations successfully; To date, only 18 low-income countries have asked to suspend debt repayments for H1 2021-down from 44 in 2020 ; For help beyond the DSSI, a few countries have turned to the G20 Common Framework; questions about the process remain.

How carbon-reliant are emerging markets? More so than developed markets, but with a lot of variation; Brazil, Turkey, and Chile are most carbon-efficient, with less reliance on energy consumption per unit of GDP; In contrast, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, and Russia score low on carbon efficiency.

We rank the carbon efficiency of mature market economies to see whether significant climate policy changes may be in store; Northern Europe is most carbon-efficient: Denmark, Ireland, UK top the list, followed by Sweden, Norway, and Finland; Belgium, Italy, Portugal, the U.S., and Australia have relatively more work to do to improve carbon efficiency.

Credit growth in China reached $5 trillion in 2020, up over 35%yoy-faster than nominal GDP growth; Corporate defaults have risen sharply in recent years, reaching $14bn in 2020 despite relief in Q2/Q3 from forbearance; China’s general gov’t debt at 45% of GDP is well below the global average-but adding local gov’t debt brings it to 92%; China’s overseas investment and lending has slowed in recent years, dropping sharply in 2020 amid the pandemic.

Lack of alignment among ESG disclosure frameworks poses challenges for financial firms on what information to report; Signs of progress: ESG disclosure initiatives propose a common approach to rationalizing differing materiality concepts; Emissions disclosures on the rise; an impact accounting database of 1800+ firms highlights intensity of environmental losses.

EM corporates have racked up $4 trillion in FX debt since 2007, bringing total FX exposure to $7 trillion; More in store: current USD weakness-with no Fed rate hike seen pre-2025-sets the stage for continued buildup in FX debt; EM corporate eurobond issuance reached $380 billion in 2020, up 10% from 2019; a record 95% of that was in USD; Most of this issuance was driven by non-financial corporates ($220bn), especially in China ($68 billion).

As the mountain of negative-yielding debt hits new record highs, EM sovereigns continue to benefit from the search for yield ; Emerging markets set to rely increasingly on USD borrowing as abundant global central bank liquidity persists; China has significantly cut back its lending to low-income countries.

Global ESG fund assets top $1.3 trillion in 2020-up by more than 50% from 2019 levels; Flows into ESG-dedicated equity ETFs have surged in recent weeks, anticipating a more active climate and ESG agenda in the Biden Administration; Voluntary carbon offset issuance reached record highs in 2020, largely driven by India, China, and the U.S.

With increasing focus on the "S" in ESG this year, we spotlight gender pay gaps, a key topic for investors and for ESG scoring; Countries with fewer women in labor markets often have smaller gaps, since many of those women tend to be high earners; Trifecta of small gaps, high female participation, and access to leadership – Sweden, Norway, and New Zealand stand out; Men mostly work in higher-paid sectors, partly explaining the gap; while in some countries women should outearn, but don’t.

We have added new enhancements to our debt tracking framework for mature markets, improving the comparability of our debt estimates-especially during periods of large swings in GDP, as has been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic; Using this method, global debt is estimated to reach nearly $275 trillion in Q3 2020-some $2.5 trillion higher than our previous estimate.

Global debt has piled up at an unprecedented pace since 2016, increasing by over $52tn vs a $6tn rise over 2012-16; Less bang for the buck: the capacity of debt to generate growth is diminishing, and investment remains subdued; EM governments face increasing interest burdens, notably in Turkey, India, South Africa, and the Philippines; Small businesses have seen a much bigger increase in debt-to-revenue ratios than have larger firms.

Rising temperatures could hit global growth, especially with a big rise; 2.5°C warming could trigger a 1.3% income loss; "Business as usual," with no emissions mitigation efforts, could cause at least a 7% decline in global GDP/capita by 2100; Both cold/rich and hot/poor countries could see incomes fall, with big but avoidable losses for Canada, Russia, U.S., India; Multiple impact channels between the climate and the economy; climate confirmed as credit-relevant for sovereign issuers.

Many emerging markets have worked hard to improve investor relations practices, helping to support the massive expansion of the EM debt universe--from $5 trillion in 2005 to over $23 trillion in 2020. The coming decade could see a surge in government debt ratios in a reflationary environment-a sharp contrast to the austerity bias of the last decade; high and rising debt levels make investor relations a top priority for emerging markets.

More than half of global GDP is nature-dependent, but ecosystem collapse is a risk in a fifth of all countries. Despite the financial materiality of ecosystem risks, financial institutions lack a nature-related risk disclosure framework.

Gross external financing needs of DSSI-eligible countries are set to remain high at over $260bn (12.5% of GDP) in 2021; General government debt in DSSI-eligible countries is projected to peak at 56% of GDP in 2021-up from 50% in 2019.

China’s 2060 carbon-neutral pledge is a game-changer in fighting climate change, aligning it with the EU, the UK and others.

Attractive valuations fuel strong demand for corporate bonds in 2020; Corporates have issued a record $2.1 trillion worth of bonds this year (ex-financials), though issuance of high-yield EM corporate bonds remains below pre-pandemic levels.

While a U.S. shift towards renewable energy has been slow to date, the sector is poised for significant growth. Strong policies are needed to accelerate the energy transition to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on the labor market.

With only 10 years to go, emerging markets and low-income countries (LICs) are far off their 2030 SDG targets; Between 2011 and 2019, median public debt in LICs rose from 30% of GDP to 47%, and is expected to reach 54% in 2020.

Early September tech selloff has dented this year’s outperformance of ESG indices, which tend to be tech-heavy; However, appetite for ESG ETFs remains strong, with ytd flows nearing $140bn (vs just $25bn over the same period in 2019).

Voluntary carbon offset (VCO) issuance has grown strongly in recent years, doubling in 2019 to nearly 130 MtCO2e; However, trading volumes have been subdued since peaking at 135 MtCO2e in 2008.

Climate transition risk assessment tools cover a growing range of scenarios, sectors and asset classes; However, modeling approaches and climate scenario assumptions are not always transparent-making comparisons difficult; Standardizing the output of these tools and models should help the interpretation of results and comparability; "Temperature alignment" metrics have become common in recent years, though skepticism about their usefulness persists.

To date, over 40 countries have requested forbearance via the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The DSSI could freeze over $11.5 billion of debt payments due to official bilateral creditors between May and December 2020.

Voluntary carbon markets have picked up in recent years, with offset issuances reaching record highs in 2019; Sharp rise in "offset retirement" volumes since 2016 highlights increased demand for voluntary carbon offset markets; India, China, Indonesia, Peru and Brazil are the largest suppliers of voluntary carbon offsets; Verified Carbon Standard is the largest voluntary carbon offset registry with a market share of some 75% among the four major registries.

Amid rampant investor demand, the market for ESG data is set to top $750 million in 2020-over triple 2015 sales; ESG data providers cover a wide range of regions, sectors, and asset classes, and use differing methodologies and definitions; We note three overlapping categories of ESG data providers: market, ESG-exclusive, and specialized (e.g. climate); In the absence of mandatory disclosure, reported ESG data points vary substantially across countries and firms; Given still-patchy data availability, there is little correlation among ESG scores from different providers.

Rising debt levels amidst COVID-19 may constrain capacity for investment in climate change mitigation and SDGs; A green recovery is critical to reduce emissions but also to boost job creation: $1tn annually in green energy investment could create 9 million jobs in three years, while reducing emissions by 15%; Some $11 trillion in global fiscal stimulus has been approved, but less than 1% of this pandemic response is "green"; The European Commission’s €750 billion budget proposal is by far the largest green package - but faces several obstacles in obtaining approval in European Council negotiations next month.

85% of ESG equity indices outperformed non-ESG peers in Q1 2020, as have 80% of ESG fixed income indices in Q2 2020; Since 2015, the ESG fund universe has tripled to over $1tn-but that’s still only 2.5% of the overall universe of 135,000 funds;.

As rescue gives way to recovery, governments and SOEs are set to play a key role in generating employment and restoring confidence, though this could come at the cost of lower productivity and higher debt levels; Defaults on the rise: the face value of defaulted non-financial corporate bonds has jumped to $70 billion in Q2 2020-the largest on record. U.S. firms account for two-thirds of the total; Some 30 countries have requested support from official bilateral creditors under the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative; fourteen of these requests have been approved so far.

Social issues to the fore: growing tensions in the U.S. could undermine efforts to tackle the COVID-19 outbreak;.

With COVID-19 clouding corporate revenue and earnings prospects, highly-leveraged firms will struggle with debt service;.

With pandemic response a key driver, global debt is set to hit $325 trillion by 2025-up sharply from $255 trillion in 2019; U.S. general government debt is on track to exceed 120% of GDP this year, up from 102% in 2019; China’s total debt hit 317% of GDP in Q1 2020, up from 300% in Q4 2019-the largest quarterly increase on record; China is now the world’s largest bilateral lender to G20 DSSI-countries, holding some 25% of their external debt.

DSSI-eligible sovereigns owe nearly $13bn in debt service payments to external private creditors from May 1st to end-2020; However, only 26 of the 73 DSSI-eligible sovereigns have outstanding Eurobonds, comprising a total stock of some $70bn; Eurobond debt service through the end of this year amounts to $4.9bn, of which interest payments represent $3.7bn.

The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) could free up >$20 bn by suspending payments for the poorest countries; The DSSI may appeal to countries that rely heavily on official bilateral creditors, e.g. Cambodia, Comoros, Myanmar, Vanuatu; Countries with high external funding needs - e.g. Mongolia, Mauritania, Grenada and Dominica - could also benefit.

G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) calls on creditors to freeze debt repayments for poorest nations upon request; External debt in DSSI-eligible countries tops $750 billion, $510 billion of which is long-term external public sector debt; DSSI-eligible countries face external debt service payments of some $140 billion in 2020.

As public health restrictions wear on, market assess how stimulus and support measures might shape the recovery; ESG-friendly equities and corporate bonds continue to outperform their peers in major global markets, including the U.S.; ESG-dedicated ETFs saw net inflows of over $3.7 billion in March, with a strong upswing in early April; A sustainable way to finance COVID-19 costs: social bond issuance has surged to near $7 billion in early April.

COVID-19 sends equity valuations plummeting worldwide: the U.S. cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (price to average long-term real earnings) is just below its long-term average, while Germany, France and EMs CAPEs are already near historic lows.

Global household debt tops $47 trillion-over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis; More than three-fourths of the 75 countries in our sample now have higher household debt-to-GDP ratios than in 2007.

Aggressive fiscal stimulus prompts an abrupt rise in sovereign bond yields-and a renewed focus on debt dynamics; Corporate bond funds see sharp outflows of $34bn over the past month, vs. average monthly inflows of $14bn in 2018-19; Amid growing risks for the banking sector, exposure to the energy sector looks relatively limited; The safe-haven rush to USD is a major refinancing risk for EM corporates and sovereigns that rely heavily on FX funding.

COVID-19 fears prompt sharp downgrades to corporate earnings estimates; growing risk of fallen angels and fire sales; Signs of stress in corporate funding markets, rising liquidity risk for oil and gas, utilities and across high-yield markets; Biggest vulnerabilities: small and medium sized firms, BBB-rated corporates and EM firms with heavy reliance on FX debt.

Financial institutions disclose more information about the resilience of their business strategies under different climate scenarios than firms in other sectors -- though there is still significant room for improvement.

Could green be the new safe haven? Flows to ESG-dedicated equity funds remain robust in February. Global environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure varies widely: it’s more prevalent in Singapore, Malaysia and China but firms tend to focus on only a few data points. Governance disclosures remain largely incomplete. The level of environmental disclosure is highest among firms in Europe, Hong Kong, and South Africa. Only 60% of large companies listed in the S&P 1200 index disclose data on carbon emissions.

The sustainable bond universe is fast approaching $1 trillion, with green bonds making up over 70% of the total; Sustainable loans in vogue: a sharp rise in issuance in 2019-20 has brought total stock to over $500 billion; Understanding climate scenarios: the role of "representative concentration pathways" for greenhouse gases.

Daunting sums: $3.5 trillion of investments in climate finance needed annually until 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C; Climate finance flows on the rise: global annual investment in clean energy hits $360bn in 2019; IIF Sustainable Finance Pyramid Framework - how data, methodologies, taxonomy, and disclosure fit together; Sharp increase in green bond issuance in 2019 to $255bn; emerging market green bond issuance hits a new high; The corporate sector has been the main driver of green bond volumes, as sovereign issuance remains lackluster.

As ESG investing goes mainstream, the potential "carbon correction" in asset prices may prompt sizable capital reallocations; Achieving the SDGs will require more private sector funding, but better ESG data is needed to inform investment decisions; Low-income countries tend to be more vulnerable to climate shocks-but rising debt loads constrain their capacity to respond; Beyond climate in the "E" of ESG-more focus on financing to support biodiversity.

As the "decade of sustainability" gets underway, calls for action on climate change will become increasingly strident; With electricity demand soaring, a rapid shift to low-carbon alternatives is needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050… …but in the EU (and beyond) nuclear power remains contentious, as growth in renewables can't keep up with demand.

Equity valuations soared in 2019, as loose financial conditions drove price/earnings ratios higher; By sector, tech and consumer discretionary have seen the biggest valuation gains, health care, banks and utilities have lagged; Early U.S. bank earnings have largely beat expectations, with particular strength in trading revenues, upbeat guidance; Global debt hits record of 322% of GDP in Q319; refinancing this year will top $19 trillion across mature and EMs; Electric vehicle sales growing rapidly alongside declining input costs; market share seen rising to 30% by 2030.

Amid easier financial conditions and ample liquidity, rising geopolitical tensions leave markets unfazed; With reliance on debt financing on the rise, the global bond universe is fast approaching $120 trillion; Cheap debt and subdued post-crisis equity returns in many markets weigh on IPO activity; Plummeting SOFR-linked issuance in Q4 2019 highlights concerns over transition away from USD LIBOR; China to launch national carbon emissions trading scheme in 2020.

As a roadmap to carbon neutrality by 2050, the Green New Deal is seeking profound structural change in the EU’s growth model-in production, consumption, investment and saving.

Sustainability accounting hits the big time; Overwhelming demand for ESG data-over 55 data/service providers compete in this $600 million market; Flows to ESG-dedicated ETFs set to top $40 billion in 2019-up over 20% from 2018 levels; New issuance of sustainable debt and loans has surged more than 40% to some $380 billion in 2019; Firms are affected differently by ESG issues-further research needed on "materiality" factors at sector and industry level.

Reflecting the rapidly growing demand for sustainability-themed research, we will from time to time be publishing a Green Weekly Insight focused entirely on ESG and sustainable finance. Comments and suggestions welcome!.

ECB tiering-how much help for Europe’s banks?; Low rates spur institutional investors’ appetite for alternatives-now over 25% of U.S. public pension fund allocations; Shift towards renewable energy continues to grow-but there’s a long road ahead; Many major emerging markets remain heavily reliant on coal for power generation-notably South Africa, China and India.

Global debt has topped $250 trillion-320% of GDP; emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion (220% of GDP); With limited room for further monetary easing, debt service costs will be an increasing constraint on fiscal policy; Climate change is driving significant reallocation in investor portfolios; high-debt countries will have a much harder time coming up with funding to address climate risks; USD hovering at record highs despite Fed rate cuts this year: persistent growth in demand for U.S. liquidity as dollar debt across EM and mature markets (ex-U.S.) hits record highs. Non-U.S. banks are increasingly reliant on USD funding.

ESG, demographics, technological progress: three key pillars in greening the global economy-and financial system; Record flows into ESG-dedicated ETFs in October, bringing year-to-date flows to over $40 billion-65% higher vs 2018 ytd; ESG bond performance on par with investment-grade credit-little distinction in pricing as yet; Will 2020 be a climate "super year?" Achieving net zero global emissions by 2050 requires emissions to peak next year.

Merits of further monetary policy easing under the microscope; Rising populism-whether due to economic or socio-cultural factors-is the primary driver of global policy uncertainty; Limited scope for monetary policy to address declining business confidence, as social unrest is often a root cause; Frontier market debt tops 115% of GDP in Q2 2019-up by 20 percentage points over the past decade. The exceptions thus stand out-including Kazakhstan which has both low valuations and declining debt levels.

ESG and sustainable finance top the policy agenda in last week’s IMF/World Bank (and IIF) meetings in Washington D.C.; Global growth set to decline to the slowest pace since the financial crisis; Strong start to U.S. Q3 earnings season, but rising corporate borrowing has been funding risk-taking, record payouts ; Carbon pricing initiatives are spreading but remain woefully insufficient to keep global warming to 2?C.

Pickup in volatility as uncertainty over trade and the economy climb to two-decade highs; Issuance of green and sustainable debt set to reach $400bn in 2019, with growing diversity in issuers; Many emerging markets will face tough challenges in LIBOR transition, given their reliance on FX debt and hedging; Weekly Insight will resume on October 24th, after the IIF Annual Membership Meeting, World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings.

Takeaways from Climate Week NYC, including a push for better disclosure of climate-related risks; New IIF climate finance workshops: how best to measure and analyze climate risk and opportunities?; Progress on the UN sustainable development goals will require more partnerships: the NGFS gets new members; Issuance of SOFR bonds by U.S. federal agencies helps improve liquidity in this key market ahead of LIBOR transition.

Buzz from Climate Week in New York-key role of financial firms in the transition to a low-carbon economy; Carbon pricing in focus-politically challenging but progress being made; Footprint of foreign banks in China still small - less than 2% of sector assets - and likely to remain so in the medium term…key growth impediments include digital bank competition, trade/geopolitical tensions, and limited retail banking prospects.

USD funding markets under scrutiny-liquidity squeeze prompts Fed cash injection and IOER cut; Growing reliance on the USD in funding markets and international trade leaves other countries vulnerable to spillovers; USD-denominated debt outside the USD rises to almost $12 trillion in Q1 2019; Climate-related capital flows to emerging markets on track to exceed $80 billion in 2019-but private flows still small; Carbon pricing initiatives are on the rise, but there’s scope for much more progress.

ECB responds decisively to "protracted" Euro Area weakness-but will it prolong September’s risk rally?; Persistent trade tensions put a spotlight on aggregate financing needs in emerging markets; At close to 90% of GDP, Argentina’s government debt is well above the EM average of 50%; over half is now owned by foreigners; Boom in "sustainable debt" issuance-green is the new gold!.

Recession or new normal? Extensive U.S. yield curve inversion feeds concerns about a global growth slowdown; Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on earnings estimates; Low emerging market valuations present opportunities-particularly when combined with credible reform prospects; Mozambique’s debt restructuring--putting a lid on the "tuna bond" can; Sustainable debt issuance set to hit a new record high of over $350 billion this year.

Ballooning universe of negative-yielding debt suggests little confidence that further policy easing will help; Lower borrowing costs will help high-debt mature economies-to a point; Negative rates and slowing growth-headwinds for bank profitability; We’ll take a late-summer break next week-next Weekly Insight will be on September 5.

Record high economic policy uncertainty is a key risk for business sentiment; Wall of worry prompts bets on rising gold prices and stronger JPY-and a further drop in stocks; Synchronized global easing could drive another round of synchronized global debt accumulation; China’s Belt and Road Initiative-concerns about debt and environmental sustainability.

Negative-yielding debt has surged from some $13 trillion in June to over $15 trillion currently as trade tensions bite; Chinese corporates now hold nearly $1.5 trillion in USD debt, with non-financial corporates accounting for over half of that; Carbon emissions per capita are higher in mature markets, while emissions relative to GDP are higher in emerging markets. However, a look at emissions relative to productivity highlights transition risks for both mature and EM economies; LIBOR transition update: Main Street also needs to move to new risk-free reference rates- key to a smooth transition.

Precautionary Fed cuts tend to support the U.S. stock market, but have little lasting effect on the USD; A return to easier global financial conditions-if sustained-would reignite concern about rising EM debt levels; Foreign portfolio investment in Chinese equities rose sharply in 2018 and Q1 2019; plenty more room for growth…but international investors in Chinese A-shares still have concerns about restrictions on foreign ownership, high volatility and lack of liquidity.

Central banks poised for easing as clouds gather over the global growth and earnings outlook; Policy uncertainty remains a key risk with no-deal Brexit and potential U.S. FX intervention in the spotlight ; China accelerates market opening for foreign investors in a bid to stoke growth and ease trade tensions; Leveraged loan issuance is over 50% below H118 levels; lower global rates reduce the appeal of floating-rate securities; Who holds leveraged loans? Institutional investors may have significant exposure via collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).

Low rates may boost short-term growth-but will discourage deleveraging even as debt continues to pile up; Incoming EC President Ursula von der Leyen puts climate change and sustainable finance top of the policy agenda; LIBOR transition update: focus on risks for asset managers; Venezuela: estimated total debt of over 200% of GDP, with external debt accounting for 80% of total debt.

Powell reaffirms dovish stance-but if stronger U.S. data derail cuts, could a bond market selloff be on the horizon?; Catch-22: central bank accommodation intended to support growth ends up hurting the financial sector; Over 17% of the EM USD corporate bond universe (ex-financials) have credit ratings on "negative outlook"; U.S. investors have growing exposure to climate risk via their cross-border investments-especially in equities; International investors shift into Chinese RMB bonds after index inclusion-foreign holdings now at a record $284 billion.

Negative-yielding debt hits a fresh record high of over $13 trillion; 75% of that is safe-haven government bonds; Low borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for EMs with high government financing needs; Climate change risks aren’t just domestic: over $29 trillion of G20 (mostly G7) cross-border investments are at risk. With awareness of these risks on the rise, our Green Flows Tracker shows net inflows of $2bn in Q2 (and record inflows for June); Insurer perspectives on LIBOR transition: the regulatory framework for EU insurers still requires a LIBOR-based term structure as the discount rate for insurance obligations.

Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion-putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance.

Analysts begin to price in trade war impact on corporate earnings-but estimates are still pretty upbeat; Emerging markets: how long will the boost from lower global rates last?; Risk-return tradeoff on carry trades looking more attractive; Convergence in the air for Euro Area bond spreads; LIBOR transition-some progress on moving towards new reference rates, but asset managers lag.

Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes - but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong - but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.

Slump in S&P sales momentum suggests boost from tax cuts is fading fast; Weaker U.S. loan demand as delinquencies rise; sharp drop in leveraged loan, cov-lite issuance; Bank profitability remains under pressure, notably in Europe, Japan; U.S. banks reliant on trading, fee income; Banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign risk still an issue in several advanced economies; insurers also exposed; Venezuela: opposition team signals tough line on creditors.

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product.

U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails-except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets-and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019.

Steady Fed gives sense of balanced risks: "healthy" U.S. economic trajectory, potential inflation rise towards 2%; Frontier market debt growing quickly - total outstanding $3.2 trillion - sovereign defaults low (for now); Green and sustainability-linked lending nearly doubles in 2018 – now almost $100 billion outstanding; LIBOR transition fraught with risks - linked to contract maturity profiles, spreads to new benchmarks.

EM assets have enjoyed tailwinds-more dovish Fed/ECB, better growth prospects, attractive valuations… but recent dollar strength and higher oil prices highlight risks ahead; Non-financial corporate EM FX debt up by over $2 trillion since 2009, pushing total EM FX debt to $5.3 trillion; High levels of dollarization reflect declining consumer confidence in Turkey and Argentina.

Elephant in the room: the U.S. accounts for fully a third of all global government debt; Fewer countries likely to see above-trend growth in 2020; Our new "green flows" tracker shows a sharp pickup for Q1; H1 2019 IIF Survey of Long-term Investors: fewer concerns about trade tensions, China slowdown.

Markets reassess chances for a Fed rate cut this year amid more optimism on trade talks, Chinese growth; Policy backdrop feeds into asset valuation in emerging markets; China may be taking a break from deleveraging, but non-financial corporate debt is still over 150% of GDP and at over 50% of GDP, household debt in China is well above the EM average-and growing strongly.

Sustainable growth high on the policy agenda; Market fragmentation poses risks for scaling up green finance markets; Demographic and social challenges for growth in China point to a decline in savings rates and home sales.

Stretching out policy support; U.S. banks build up holdings of domestic government debt-potential liquidity risk?; Higher U.S. budget deficits will keep net borrowing needs at high levels; Less foreign demand for Treasuries-though domestic demand has remained solid.

Eking out the late-cycle rally; Sustained improvement in external funding conditions would be a boon for highly indebted EMs; After debt relief, many low-income countries have seen debt/GDP ratios rise sharply in recent years; Rising pension obligations burden mature economies-and some emerging markets as well.

Declining equity risk premia mirror the Fed’s dovish turn in 2019-but how much further can risk-on run?; Angels falling: more U.S. issuers are at the lower end of investment grade (BBB)-and taking on more debt; More vulnerable: small unrated U.S. non-financial corporates have racked up a hefty $1.13 trillion in debt; To call or not to call: $110 billion in CoCos are redeemable through 2020.

Despite hopes for a continued "v-shaped" equity market recovery, investors are hedging their bets; Highly procyclical U.S. fiscal stance in sharp contrast to other mature economies; "Shadow banking" on the rise around the world-though not so much in the U.S.; Record pace of buybacks by S&P500 sparks more debate about their merits.

Return to low volatility has underpinned the risk rally, but a less-dovish Fed could hurt; Term premium compression again-bond markets to the rescue?; MiFID II ushers in a decline in turnover, shift towards cheaper ETFs in the EU; Older Americans shoulder a growing burden of student loan debt.

Sharp improvement in risk appetite reflects improved valuations as well as more supportive Fed policy; As new U.S. sanctions take hold, holders of Venezuelan bonds contemplate next steps; Wobbles in the leveraged loan market; millennials give a boost to U.S. commercial real estate; ESG index performance-doing good doesn’t mean giving up returns, especially in emerging markets!.

After a burst of strength in 2017-18, momentum in U.S. corporate earnings and sales shows signs of fading; Growing pressure on profitability for global systemically important banks; Despite higher hedging costs, safe-haven demand continues to support foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries; Emerging market central banks load up on gold, looking to build precautionary buffers.

Fed flexibility on balance sheet normalization could have far-reaching consequences; Tech stock valuations suggest fears that trade war is morphing into tech war; A more dovish Fed spells respite for highly indebted EM borrowers; Unprecedented growth in green syndicated lending; Sharply higher debt in vulnerable low-income countries puts sustainable development goals at risk.

Davos debates debt, urges action on financing for sustainable development goals; Analysts get more pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings; Global equity valuations are back to long-run averages-but are they cheap?; Long-term investors look to increase allocations to EM equities.

Policy dissonance has been a key factor in market volatility, yield curve flattening; Growing concern about the longer-term implications of a U.S. government shutdown; If bank stocks are a bellwether, signals are not reassuring; China deleveraging on the back burner; rising refinancing risk for U.S. corporates.

Dichotomy between still-strong growth and market warning signals leaves investors scrambling; Upward pressure on overnight rates could trigger liquidity shortages, higher volatility in money markets; Lowest tier of investment grade now accounts for 42% of the U.S. corporate debt universe, up from 30% in 2008; Central bank reserve managers shift away from USD in 2018.

Jittery equity analysts cut forecasts for next year’s corporate earnings; Tighter financial conditions may prompt more central bank caution; Safe-haven flows intensify in early 2019 amid concerns about the credit cycle; Heightened volatility - notably in equity markets – dampens risk appetite.

Slump in cyclical sectors highlights concerns about global growth, impact of quantitative tightening; Market selloff has prompted a sharp correction in equity valuations-but they still don’t look cheap; Signs of rotation to emerging markets; This will be the last Weekly Insight of 2018-see you in the New Year!.

U.S.: $1.5tn in student loans present fiscal risks; $1tn in leveraged loans vulnerable to rising interest rates ; Banking flows to the UK weaken since the Brexit referendum; Inflation under control in most key EMs; but central bank independence under scrutiny in many countries; RMB gains as a global reserve currency; foreign investor demand for bonds shifts from China to other EMs.

Tighter financial conditions, yield curve inversion prompt more bets on a Fed pause. Equity analysts revise down 2019 earnings forecasts; banks underperform. Sharp rebound in EM portfolio flows in November; EM oil importers see the benefit of lower prices. Tax revenues at very high levels-but are governments using them effectively?.

Equity market volte-face highlights renewed concern about U.S.-China trade tensions; Pace of decline in global central bank asset purchases accelerates; High debt-to-cash levels in the corporate sector-another sign of trouble for credit markets; Carry trade returns still generally sub-par, but looking more attractive for a few emerging markets.

One factor behind global equity market jitters: the growing focus on credit risk. Credit spreads have widened only modestly in 2018, but look increasingly vulnerable to a trigger event. Rising rates highlight vulnerabilities in housing markets. Less reliance on hard-currency debt in EM Asia ex-China, but more in Africa/Middle East.

Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F.

Global equity markets end October deep in negative territory despite late rally Tighter global financial conditions-but looser lending standards in th.

Sharp rise in equity market correlations highlights concerns about the 2019 investment backdrop' Signs of financial vulnerabilities for the U.S. corpo.

Bali themes--policy dissonance, risks for growth and financial stability Market expectations for future short-term rates are beginning to outpace the.

Ten years on from the global financial crisis, the financial system looks safer-but is still untested October's market selloff has meant tighter finan.

Volte-face in USD and bond yields has global ripple effects Late-cycle signals for the U.S. economy Spoiler alert: downgrade to our 2019 forecasts in.

Profit repatriation slows-a potential trigger to rebalance away from U.S. equities' Sharp divergence in shadow policy rates Wide valuation gap between.

Further escalation in trade tensions, growing evidence of a global liquidity drawdown Upward revisions to U.S. corporate earnings, but less optimism o.

Cyclical sectors have lost momentum, signaling concern about slower growth in 2019 While sentiment indicators and survey data continue to surprise on.

How long can investor bias toward the U.S. persist? Equity valuations have come down-but few markets look cheap EM risk aversion continues to rise, bu.

Euphoria for U.S. equities, dysphoria for emerging markets Yield curve flattening-sorting signal from noise Tracking EM contagion-some markets much mo.

U.S. remains the investor destination of choice-but for how long? Futures markets sanguine on U.S. equities-but setting new record levels for short Tr.

Sharp surge in portfolio allocations to U.S. assets Trade war fears hit business sentiment-though NAFTA countries are faring better Big increase in lo.

Sharp drop in global trade volumes, driven mainly by emerging markets' Warning bell on global stocks as defensives outperform cyclicals' FX-denominate.

Analysts weigh current growth signals against the potential impact of tariffs' Dollar strength prompts a rethink across asset prices What next for com.

" Potential impact of tariffs makes companies more cautious on future earnings " Pressure for rate hikes-angst for many EM policymakers " Impact of.

Tighter financial conditions and ebbing dollar liquidity raise the risk of strains in credit markets Flattening yield curves weigh on valuations in th.

Cross-country activity growth signals diverge further as trade tensions mount Rising correlations across regions and asset classes highlight contagion.

Mounting trade tensions raise risks for global equities, emerging markets Sudden stop in non-resident portfolio equity flows to China Big drop in U.S.

Market positioning highlights optimism on U.S., Japanese equities, risks for Treasuries, EMs U.S. yield curve flattening leaves bank stocks unruffled".

Sizing up EM inflation risk Robust portfolio debt and equity inflows to China wee.

Assessing spillover risks from Italy Euro Area corporate bonds look more vulnerable to contagion from stress in government bond markets Stubbornly hig.

Turkey hikes rates to support the lira-will this movie replay in other markets? Rise in EM local currency yields has been modest, compared to the tape.

All eyes on EM debt as U.S. rates rise; EM debt ratios look more sensitive to USD strength than in 2009 Time for a pivot to equities? Stocks looking c.

Current commodity cycle-higher oil prices,.

Stronger dollar has spelled trouble for EM carry trades and local currency bonds Recent EM outflows now more on the debt side, in contrast to equity o.

Stocks of highly leveraged firms underperform, especially in emerging markets' More differentiation in emerging market equities, but mature markets re.

Despite U.S. fiscal expansion, the global supply of safe assets may be nearing a cyclical peak' Large U.S. banks report record net income in Q1, helpe.

Geopolitics boosting oil prices, but this s.

SOFR: a new reference rate is born U.S.-China tariff talk not y.

Despite a sharply wider Libor/Fed funds spread, funding markets remain relatively calm However, interest rates have jumped for Libor-based loans-an "e.

Large global companies underperform small-cap stocks as trade tensions mount Will tighter financial conditions slow the pace of monetary policy normal.

Rising trade tensions continue to hang over equity markets-but pricing the uncertainty remains difficult Escalation of trade disputes could foreshadow.

Trade wars could dent profit margins, challenging expectations of strong earnings growth European investors likely to keep calm and carry on after dov.

" Risk appetite still dented; tighter financial conditions hurt " Higher hedging costs renew questions about foreign appetite for Treasuries " EM p.

Will the Fed go much further above neutral? Still plenty of negative-yielding sovereign bonds out there EM outflows revert to inflows-green shoots for.

With the spotlight on US twin deficits, the uneasy higher rates/softer dollar dichotomy continues Daily EM outflows show signs of easing up New Capita.

Higher U.S. wage data may have been a catalyst for the equity rout, but rising yields remain a concern Real rates rising faster than inflation expecta.

" ' ' Rising global bond yields rattle the "risk-on" consensus " ' ' Despite risks, the outlook remains constructive for EM flows-particularly under.

Davos themes-will trade and tax wars threaten peaceful financial markets? Green light for big multinationals, with Euro Area in the lead Could quantit.

Easy global financial conditions support risk appetite-despite higher rates Bond yields outpacing dividend yields in the U.S.-but not in Europe and Ja.

" Hopes for a stock market "melt up"-but where's the value? " Higher bond yields-and oil prices-keep fixed income traders anxious " New Year's appe.

" ' Forecasters looking for higher bond yields this year-for a change! " ' Strong earnings recovery continues-but likely to decelerate in 2018 " ' Cor.

" Bond yields-gonna hit that high? " Rising rates, more volatility could prompt a rethink of valuations " Inflated real asset prices looking more v.

Debate around the direction of 2018 monetary policy heats up Cyclical stocks pricing in solid, synchronized growth-at least for 2018 Room for investor.

Reassessing valuations as markets price in more U.S. rate hikes Rumbles of concern about high-yield borrowers' Flat yield curves weigh on bank profita.

Economic surprise indices advance in sync Will G4 governments further extend duration on borrowing? OPEC extension of production cuts may not buoy pri.

" Flat yield curve? No problem " Fund investors slash exposure to Mexico " U.S. tax reform-the waiting is the hardest part " Venezuela-the check i.

" Stock prices track upward revisions to earnings " Anticipating tax cuts-flows return to U.S. equities " Warning signals from high-yield markets ".

More clarity on G4 policy rate paths Don't read too much into the flat U.S. yield curve Low volatility boosts risk-adjusted returns EM flows should se.

" Behind the bond market repricing " Bank valuations on the rise " Near-term turbulence for emerging markets " U.S. tax reform-details await tax r.

Sizing up the earnings turnaround' Pricing policy uncertainty' Bank earnings offer clues on cyclical recovery Frontier markets see a continued surge i.

What's more overvalued: stocks or bonds? Seeking more upside for bond yields, USD U.S. tax reform -not much in price Emerging markets -factoring in p.

" Looking for a market shakeup' " Yield curve steepening in prospect " Stocks bubble on, oil set to play catch-up " Banks-time to rise and shine?.

Download PDF (227.66 KB) II.

Risk appetite remains close to post-crisis highs " but the search for protection has intensified Emerging market USD corporate issuance takes anoth.

Markets hunt down divergence trades Equity flows chase growth standouts Softer USD-lift for corporate earnings? U.S. debt ceiling-kicking the crisis d.

" Markets-overlooking the risks " How inflated are equity market valuations? " Junk bond issuance goes boom " ' EM rally taking on a more cautious.

" Dueling policymakers " Currency valuation in focus " Intra-EM correlations on the rise-trouble brewing? " Venezuela-new sanctions could squeeze.

Editor's note: With this edition of the Weekly Insight , we are moving to a shorter format offering a concise summary of mark.

Markets-reassessing the pain trade Korea-facing heightened geopolitical concerns China-rebalance by trade, not trade wars EM Europe-financial conditio.

Markets-still betting on liquidity China-more attractive for portfolio inflows Brazil-watch out for volatility in capital flows' South Africa-MPC cuts.

Still buying the dips US Policy-Russia sanctions Bill South Africa-International investment position MENA-Financial sector adapting to a new era.

Bracing for tighter monetary policy Central Europe-expansion under way South Africa-c/a structural deficit U.S. financial regulation-reducing the burd.

" ' Markets-euro 1, dollar 0 " Global Debt Monitor-no free lunch " Mexico-clouded growth outlook " India-moving forward on the banking cleanup " R.

Markets meander like a restless wind Oil slips-what next for high yield? Japan - lights and shadows UK - still sliding towards zero Hungary - further.

Markets respectfully disagree Euro area bonds-staying positive Turkey-growth bump Central and Eastern Europe-at potential Egypt-inflation rate will de.

Markets-where's the value? ECB-a modicum of hawkishness A brighter outlook for EM capital flows" " but Fed balance sheet reduction may be a drag on E.

Markets-time for a breather? EM capital flows-steady as she goes, per our latest Tracker U.S. exits the Paris Agreement-what next for green finance?.

Markets-just buy on dips Russia-the oil price conundrum China-downgrade highlights growing debt burden Brazil-spillovers for corporates? EM bank lendi.

" Markets-uncertainty bites " Brazil-heightened political uncertainty " Mexico-putting the pieces together " Global corporates-more capex in sight.

Markets - underpricing policy risk? Japan - our take from Tokyo France -' Can Macron build on his success? Turkey - credit impulse propels growth Egyp.

Debates rage, but the caravan moves on Greece -light at the end of the tunnel Puerto Rico bankruptcy -bigger than Detroit Machine learning -revoluti.

" U.S. tax cuts-a long and winding road " Fed says pause. Markets hear stop " Reconciliation-U.S. tax reform's only hope? " ECB sees less downside.

Download PDF (389.82 KB) IIF Authors Robin.

Eyes back on central banks' Potential for political upset in France South Africa - downgraded amid heightened political risk Czech Republic - a new er.

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Emerging markets - how resilient? Euro area - investment spending to boost growth China - surge in borrowing rates More foreign interest in Chinese bo.

Download PDF (578.93 KB) IIF Authors Kristen Silverb.

Looking on the bright side Trump vs. WTO China-green shoots in spring India-GDP surprises, but revision likely' Colombia easing set to continue.

" Markets-pricing uncertainty " French election watch-Macron gets a boost " Greece and its creditors-positive steps, but no grand bargain " Turkey.

Markets -Follow the money, mind the regulators Euro area -a solid foundation for 2017 Japan -Mr. Abe goes to Washington Venezuela -a ticking social.

Is the reflation trade coming back? China - capital outflows remain large India - RBI surprises, keeping rates on hold MENA - short-term pain, long-te.

What next for the strong dollar trade? US-Yellen keeps the powder dry Greece-second review of bailout program still up in the air Poland- self-inflict.

Markets push the boundaries A busy week for the ECB PBOC-tightening up? Russia-poised for Trump Korea-clouded by uncertainty Sub-Saharan Africa-tight.

In search of inauguration trades Energy behind jump in U.S. inflation ECB-doves prevail, for now Mexico-tough times ahead Turkey-policy tinkering cont.

Markets reassess the Trump trade US-a surge in animal spirits China-no deleveraging in 2016 Brazil-monetary easing accelerates Turkey-tightening liqui.

1.' What next for the dollar? ' ' Investors closed out 2016 with fairly firm convictions about where markets were headed: the dollar and mature equi.

1.' Markets brace for higher bond yields, stronger USD: As investors digest the implications of the Fed's rather hawkish hike (see below), they see l.

Markets amp up ECB decision-When is a taper not a taper? Short-term debt relief for Greece-better than nothing! China-strong rebound in trade yet capi.

Reassessing the Trump trade Trump's economic team starts to take shape Business stays upbeat China-YI Gang tries to sooth RMB fear Turkey-currency wea.

Bond' market rout-will it get worse? IIF EAC meeting in Vienna-economic consequences of Mr. Trump EM flows fall in post-election reset-new IIF Flows.

Investors price in stronger growth, higher inflation U.S. set for fiscal expansion, but with a high degree of uncertainty U.S. politics-entering a per.

Jittery markets ahead of U.S. elections Fed-laying the table for December UK-Bank of England takes a step back Egypt-central bank makes its move EM ca.

Contemplating the impact of higher U.S. rates G3 PMIs-return of corporate animal spirits Spain-Rajoy to continue government from weak position Lebanon.

1. Markets still wary:' Widely watched events this week have not really turned out to be game-c.

Beware of October surprises UK-the quiet time is over US-Fed' en route ' for December Thailand-end of an era Egypt-challenges and opportunities 1.

Hoping for improvement-but pitfalls remain IIF Capital Flows Tracker - strong appetite for EM assets continues Oil - staying in the sweet spot Germany.

1. Global stocks, bonds surge post-Fed; EMs in favor :' While the outcome of the BoJ and Fed meetings this week (see below) was much as anticipated,.

Czech Republic-no easy exit Ukraine-struggling to get back on track China-sustained momentum 1.' Markets-more volatility, steeper yield curves: Ce.

EM growth tracker-off multi-year high, but still strong South Africa-is the rebound a flash in the pan? Argentina-way out not so easy China-capital.

Federal Reserve-inching closer to that rate hike after Jackson Hole Brazil-Dilma no more Nigeria-officially in recession EM portfolio flows remain st.

1.' Jackson Hole to set tone for markets: ' As an eventful summer draws to a close, the backdrop for financial markets continues to appear relativel.

Japan-policy announcements disappoint (again) India-off to the races Global PMI and IP-hints of improvement Oil-sliding prices, but underlying tren.

1.' How much more steam in the post-Brexit rally? ' With politics dominating headlines in recent weeks (including in the U.S., where the Republican.

China-growth stabilizing, for now Turkey-political risk weighs on the economy Global fund flows-demand for safe havens and yield 1. Markets take a.

EM Capital Flows in the Post-Brexit World Malaysia-modest monetary easing 1.' Hopes for further stimulus buoy equities, credit.

Europe's banks under pressure China-RMB's post-Brexit weakness 1.' Nervous markets, record low bond yields: Post-Brexit markets are venturing furt.

Safe havens and bargain-hunting Brexit damage assessment' Mexico-exposed but resilient Frontier Africa-adjusting to new realities Qatar-weathering low.

1.' Markets betting on Bremain: ' With the momentum of poll results shifting back towards Bremain, the markets seem to have decided that ther.

1.' Rush for safe havens as Brexit vote looms : A week is a long time in financial markets as well as politics.' An abrupt swing towards a LEAVE vot.

*Rising tide floats all boats-but for how long? *EM flows surge after dovish ECB, weak payrolls *Global Economic Monitor-still looking for lift *China.

Wary markets ahead of key Fed, Brexit decisions' ECB -' wait-and-see mode Japan - when your best may not be good enough' Portfolio flows to EMs grind.

China-pickup in activity already softening Argentina-political honeymoon is over Venezuela-staring into the abyss 1.' Markets are listening now:.

Fresh impetus in the search for yield U.S. monetary policy-recent data likely to reinforce Fed patience China-more stable China capital flows-for now.

* Investors not finding much good news * Turkey-moving towards presidential rule * Spain-uncertain politics, resilient economy * Puerto Rico-grappling.

1. What next for the rally? ' After the solid run-up since mid-February, the tone in global equity markets has been more sober over the past week. The.

1.' Ebullient oil and commodities continue to boost EMs:' ' The stars have remained in alignment for emerging markets this week.' Rising oil prices.

Sober policymakers, buoyant equities What next for China's RMB? Still many questions Russia-government confident the worst is over Ukraine-tentative p.

1. FX in focus: ' As investors watch the Fed --which in turn appears to be watching the markets (see below)--U.S. rat.

Yellen cheers the markets-but for how long? March Madness - EM portfolio flows surge to 21-month high Brazil-abandoning a sinking ship GCC authorities.

Nigeria: Monetary policy reversal Catalonia-Stressed times ahead 1.' Markets take a breather. Following gains of more than 10% over the past mont.

Renewed enthusiasm for risk assets' Fed leans cautious EM corporates shift toward more local currency borrowing China-weak activity points towards mor.

Draghi whipsaws the markets ECB-refocus on credit easing EM Growth Tracker-stuck in low gear China-slower pace of outflows Iran-shifting balance of po.

Better sentiment lifts emerging markets-but will it last? EM portfolio flows-signs of finding a floor February PMIs - converging down India - budget g.

Better market sentiment-but very high volatility Close to the edge: our new Global Economic Monitor Mexico-major policy adjustment' Venezuela-more noi.

1. It gets worse: This week has seen a surge in risk aversion. Rising concerns have been reflected in a further sh.

EM portfolio flows continue unprecedented slide In search of safer havens-fund flows favor core bonds South Africa-MPC bites the bullet ' 1.'.

Stock price slump brings valuations closer to fundamentals No respite for emerging market capital flows Dovish ECB hints at March move China-growth mo.

Markets reassess 2016 prospects Spotlight on FX pegs Renewed oil price slump clouds outlook for producers EM Growth Tracker shows small rebound in Dec.

1.' Markets fasten seatbelts: ' The relative calm that prevailed just after Fed liftoff has abruptly dissipated as China's market t.

Will the Force be with the markets? Fed achieves smooth liftoff High-yield sector-blinking first? China-a policy induced pick-up Argentina-bold steps.

Eyes on emerging markets Fed preview-thinking beyond liftoff Growth Tracker shows further EM slowdown China-capital outflows remain high in Q4 South A.

Euro surges, markets slump as Draghi disappoints ECB holds back EM portfolio flows stuck in the doldrums Brazil-crisis deepens RMB makes it into the S.

Markets comforted by a gradualist Fed Global growth and trade-looking for a silver lining Japan-some bright spots in technical recession Repositioning.

Greek turmoil-what lies ahead? Russian banks on the brink China- renminbi under pressure Ecuador.

China-Growth Momentum Remains Tepid Oil boon fuels EM monetary easing Ukraine-looking for more help iif_we.

New IIF Capital Flows Report projects continued weakness in flows to EMs in 2015 India' RBI makes its move Saudi budget riding out the o.

Lower commodity prices, higher volatility-a fresh look at valuations Revising down our oil price outlook Falling oil prices fuel deflation fears in th.

Russia: a perfect storm China: Looking Towards 2015 Greece-Electoral Jitters.

Stimulus in Europe-all hopes still on monetary policy Manufacturing PMIs- uneven ride Brazil goes orthodox South Africa-hoping for better times.

Euro Area growth-hard slog ahead Japan-reinforcing the first and second arrows Risk appetite tempered FOMC minutes paint a balanced picture Shanghai-H.

Equity markets assess relative growth prospects Global outlook - looking for upside China - mixed signals Korea -' BOK stands pat despite yen concerns.

Markets assess divergent G-3 monetary policy, slumping oil prices Global economy turning up but still fragile ECB-a promise to do more; a one-two punc.

Fed a bit more hawkish, but markets take it in stride U.S.-stronger growth, less slack ECB" s Comprehensive Assessment-not fully reassuring Tighter ba.

Cautious optimism as Q3 earnings surprise on the upside Global business sentiment stabilizes in October Breathing room for EM assets Oil prices calmer.

Falling prices and rising volatility in context Will Fed exit be delayed? Groundhog day for the global economy Asset managers highlight bond market ri.

More uncertainty, less conviction on market direction Saudi price cuts, ample supply weigh on oil prices ECB-Oiling the currency printing press Modi m.

Risk assets falter, yield curves flatten, commodities slump Dollar storms ahead; more vulnerable EM currencies suffer Flash manufacturing PMIs-U.S. co.

Aye or nay? Implications of the Scottish referendum Markets weigh impact of FOMC, Scotland" s vote, Chinese stimulus FOMC meeting-reading the dots EM.

More volatility as prospects for rates, currencies are weighed Sputtering growth engines in the global economy Record trade surplus in China Diverging.

Euro Area stocks and bonds rally; more caution in U.S. markets ECB reaches its lower bound Euro heads south, sterling wobbles August PMIs-U.S. knocks.

Hopes for QE, Ukraine tensions push core bond yields lower ECB-getting ready for QE Cross-court shot- what next for dollar-euro? Tracking a modest cyc.

Higher bond yields, weaker stock markets More growth and more tapering in the U.S. Lending conditions eased in Q2, in both EMs and the Euro Area EM cu.

Global equities supported by strong U.S. earnings reports Divergence in risk-on assets: high-yield sector falters Flash PMIs-overall, a positive glimp.

Safe-haven shift overshadows favorable early Q2 earnings reports Risks for crowded trades as markets evaluate Fed policy signals Russia-U.S. sanctions.

Higher volatility amid strains in Euro Area financial markets EM equities back to early 2013 levels, but jury out on earnings prospects Global economy.

Sizing up equity valuations and the credit market rally FX roundup- focus on high-yielding currencies U.S. growth-where is the beef? Flash PMIs- l'exc.

Markets see few reasons to steer clear of risk assets-at least for now Fed policy-steady as she goes Market signals and fundamentals both suggest only.

Equity markets reassess valuations Signs of credit market complacency? ECB accommodation lends further support to carry trades After a weak Q1, an une.

ECB moves to a negative deposit rate Pessimism about mature economy growth Concerns about the outlook for EM capital flows Impact of new technologies.

Another leg down in forward rates, another leg up for emerging market assets Japan's largest pension fund prepares to increase allocations to equities.

Taper-versary: one year on, is a stronger USD in prospect? Turkey eases monetary policy China-could housing crunch the economy? India-BJP win boosts e.

Bias still towards risk, but investors looking for reassurance Speculation about ECB stimulus fuels Euro weakness Euro Area GDP disappoints in Q1 as c.

Supportive backdrop for both bonds and equities" " although flows to high-yield bond funds come to a halt Manufacturing PMIs signal more divergence.

Mature market equities hit new highs; eyes on Europe and the euro Being realistic about U.S. growth prospects Euro Area inflation remains low, but ECB.

Solid U.S. earnings season supports market sentiment, despite a degree of concern on valuation Flash PMIs signal brighter summer Elections in India- B.

Equity markets regain footing, helped by better U.S. data and hopes for Chinese policy stimulus Renewed interest in EM assets-but continued differenti.

Renewed appetite for emerging market assets, high-yield bonds and carry trades Greece returns to the markets More moderate tone in FOMC minutes Normal.

Bund-Treasury yield gap continues to widen Sharply lower flows to equity ETFs in Q1 ECB ready to use QE " if needed Global PMIs again underscore the.

Early 2014 sees demand for both safe havens and risk assets IIF Portfolio Flows Tracker indicates pick-up in flows to emerging markets Flash PMIs mixe.

Bond markets move to price in earlier Fed tightening, developed market equities resilient Fed surprises on the hawkish side Renminbi drops sharply as.

Softer Chinese growth indicators, focus on deflationary pressures chip away at risk appetite China - activity slips over the new year Emerging market.

More risk appetite, but strains in a number of EM countries still evident Manufacturing PMIs-up in mature economies, down in EMs ECB on hold-improving.

Strains in a number of emerging markets prompt a move to safe havens Domestic political factors drive greater divergence in EM performance Weaker U.S.

Relative strength of U.S. data, G20 messages buoy the dollar Highlights from the IIF G20 conference in Sydney Flash PMIs-weaker China, softer Euro Are.

Better sentiment prompts search for buying opportunities in equities, risk assets Market signals suggest some EM currencies still under scrutiny Tweak.

Risk appetite returns, but selectively Clearer signs of differentiation seen in emerging market currency performance IIF EM Lending Survey: more loan.

Broad selling of EM assets eases; more differentiation expected going forward Assessing the emerging market policy response Ghosts of 1998 - but this.

Equities and risks to growth; surge in dollar bond issuance Softer growth and credit concerns in China Emerging market currencies under pressure Turki.

"Show me the profits"- equities focus on earnings growth; credit spreads Highlights from IIF Economic Advisory Committee meeting in New York - cautiou.

Equity rally takes a breather; a good week for sovereign issuance; EM eyes on China Fed minutes suggest smooth launch for QE3 wind-down Stronger Euro.

Still constructive outlook for equities; risks to consensus view on bond yields Global manufacturing recovery remains on track, but EMs still lagging.

Limited selling in bond markets, modest rally in developed market equities Tapering may reinforce investor discrimination, vis-a-vis emerging market a.

Eyes on potential for December Fed taper, ECB comments Stronger U.S. data flow and budget deal put taper back in focus Mexico pushes a sweeping energy.

Bonds suffer as U.S. data come in strong, ECB signals no rate move Manufacturing PMIs continue their rise U.S. Q3 GDP revised up to 3.6%, Q4 looks clo.

Will higher bond yields dent the risk rally? China's third plenum blueprint beats expectations Chinese domestic bond market-ready to open up? Slow but.

Mature markets continue to rise, although emerging markets less buoyant Yellen remarks seen as dovish, and Fed policy normalization still seen distant.

ECB cuts rates by 25bp - how much more ammunition do they have? Incoming real activity data for the Euro Area remained broadly positive U.S. Q3 GDP -.

Only slightly curbed market enthusiasm U.S. economy failing to gain momentum so far and Fed stands pat ECB next week - on hold with an easing bias Eur.

"Taper-delay rally" highlights the renewed search for yield U.S. outlook: fiscal battles and weaker job growth suggest no taper until 2014 Manufacturi.