The IIF offers an independent source of global economic and financial research. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the global outlook with a focus on key emerging economies, timely analysis of capital flows to emerging markets and developments in international financial markets.

We focus on risks and policy challenges, drawing on first-hand insights from our interactions with policymakers and member firms and our close involvement with the global regulatory debate.

Members can tap the IIF’s team of highly experienced, international economists and financial analysts for custom briefings on a range of macro, regional, and country issues. 

LATEST IIF RESEARCH

Publication
May 28, 2015

*EM currencies falter, Chinese equities drop.
*EM capital flows projected to fall to post-crisis low in 2015.
*What does the downside for capital flows look like?
*Secondary market liquidity and USD liabilities in EMs—how much of a problem?

Publication
May 27, 2015

After a slow start to the year, private capital inflows to EMs are projected to subside to $981 billion this year, which would be the weakest outcome since the global financial crisis. In part, the weakness in flows projected for 2015 reflects developments that have already occurred as capital inflows are estimated to have reached a six-year low in 2015Q1 in the context of weak EM GDP growth. We project a pickup in flows in 2016, but stress downside risks related to the possibility of more aggressive Fed tightening and continued stagnation in global growth.

Publication
May 26, 2015

Portfolio flows to emerging markets dropped to $7 billion in May from $30 billion in April, according to our Tracker estimates. EM equity markets account for all of the net inflows, while debt flows were flat. On a regional basis, Latin America attracted the bulk of the inflows this month, while EM Europe saw substantial outflows. The drop in flows was driven by spillovers from the jump in mature economy bond yields, with the impact concentrated in EM bond markets.

Publication
May 26, 2015

The recent reversal of EM portfolio flows lasted from May 1 to May 18, according to our Flows Alert methodology. We estimate that the episode saw total EM outflows of about $10-15 billion. The reversal came to an end as global bond yields have stabilized in recent days.

Publication
May 21, 2015

* Calmer markets—for now
* Dispatch from Silicon Valley
* Global growth—still waiting for the rebound
* Introducing IIF Flows Alerts
* Turkey—central bank remains on hold

Publication
May 19, 2015
Bottom Line: The Chinese government has stepped up its efforts to launch a big local government debt swap as part of broader plans to boost the economy. The local government fiscal reforms launched last year are big and bold. Little progress enacting the reforms and uncertainties over local government finances have been a major source of drag on an economy already struggling to maintain momentum. The Chinese central government has stepped up its efforts to sweeten the deal as part of broader plans to do what it takes to get local governments to start spending again.
Publication
May 19, 2015

The decision to publish regulations governing direct ownership of shares listed on the stockmarket, Tadawul, by Qualified Foreign Financial Institutions marks an important step to open the Saudi economy to foreign equity investors. A growing allocation to Saudi stocks by global investors could translate to significant inflows within a few years if the country is eventually included in major benchmarks such as the MSCI emerging market index. Allowing ownership of shares by QFIs is intended to reduce market volatility, increase efficiency and transparency, and, ultimately, support economic growth.

Publication
May 19, 2015

Our new early warning system for EM capital flows indicates that a reversal episode began on May 1, with daily data showing a sharp decline in portfolio inflows. The reversal was broad-based across EMs and affected EM Asian countries most. Outflows seem to have been triggered by the fallout from the global bond tantrum.

Publication
May 18, 2015

Introducing IIF Flows Alerts: An early warning system designed to detect turning points in capital flows to emerging markets. Recipients will get real-time notifications of incipient surges and reversals of foreign portfolio flows. These alerts build on a new database of daily portfolio flows to emerging markets that is updated every Monday and posted on the top right of this page. Daily portfolio flows can help analysts monitor shifts in investor sentiment, understand the drivers of flows, and predict future changes in flows and asset prices.

Publication
May 14, 2015

* Adjusting to higher bond yields
* Euro Area growth—getting better
* EM growth starts Q2 on a weak note
* China—economy remains tepid

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