The IIF offers an independent source of global economic and financial research. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the global outlook with a focus on key emerging economies, timely analysis of capital flows to emerging markets and developments in international financial markets.

We focus on risks and policy challenges, drawing on first-hand insights from our interactions with policymakers and member firms and our close involvement with the global regulatory debate.

Members can tap the IIF’s team of highly experienced, international economists and financial analysts for custom briefings on a range of macro, regional, and country issues. 

LATEST IIF RESEARCH

Publication
April 23, 2015

* Markets take in weak data
* Spotlight on Q1 earnings, valuations
* Our new Global Economic Monitor—Global growth under strain
* China—stepping up the pace of monetary easing
* Greece—endgame is near

Publication
April 23, 2015
This paper provides a concise summary of the vast literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The importance of different drivers varies across different kinds of capital flows (Figure 1). External "push" factors like U.S. interest rates and global risk aversion matter most for portfolio flows. By contrast, domestic "pull" factors like growth and country risk are most important for banking flows.
Publication
April 22, 2015

2015 has not started as well as hoped. Activity data have disappointed in Q1 and business confidence has deteriorated. The IIF again revised down its global forecast and now projects growth of 2.8%, unchanged from 2014. We still peg 2015 as a year of divergence, but the rotations implied by these divergences, such as a pick-up in growth in oil importing countries, are materializing only slowly. Looking ahead, momentum should increase during the course of the year and into 2016, when annual growth should rise to 3.3%. However, risks remain tilted to the downside.

Publication
April 16, 2015

* Global equity rally pauses after record highs
* China—Slow Growth Will Require Further Easing
* Iran—The Dawn of a New Economic Era?
* Global bank lending snapshot: Slowdown in bank lending in emerging markets, modest growth in mature markets

Publication
April 16, 2015

The blockchain—the power behind Bitcoin—is widely recognized as a foundational technology and the key disruptive innovation in the Bitcoin protocol. Blockchain technology in effect removes the need for a clearing house or financial establishment to act as intermediary during a transaction and in doing so transfers control and power from a central authority to the many, facilitating quick, secure, and inexpensive exchanges of value. The innovation has potentially significant implications for companies in the payments space, including those involved in money transfer and credit card transactions, as well as for trade, commerce, and the financial system as a whole.

Publication
April 13, 2015

The economic implications for Iran of reintegration into the global economy would be enormous. Growth could accelerate to 6% in fiscal years 2016/17 and 2017/18 driven by a surge in exports and private investment, the fiscal deficit would narrow, the large spread between the official and the black market rates could be eliminated, and the authorities could press ahead with reforms to improve the business environment. The agreement could restore Iran’s oil production and exports before mid-2017, adding to pressure for continued low oil prices beyond 2015.

Publication
April 13, 2015

Welcome to Global Bank Lending Snapshot, a new quarterly IIF publication offering timely information about domestic bank lending to the private sector in more than 160 countries.

Publication
April 10, 2015

With signals from the Fed on balance dovish, and weak U.S. labor market data, markets have reassessed positions in recent weeks. Some revival in risk appetite has been evident in March and early April. As expectations of the first Fed rate hike have shifted closer to January 2016, interest rate volatility has risen.

Publication
April 9, 2015

* Risk assets rally, Euro Area equities in the lead
* FOMC minutes strike a balanced tone
* ECB meeting preview—both good news and bad
* Greece—still close to the edge
* EM growth likely to have fallen to multi-year low in Q1

Publication
April 9, 2015

The European Central Bank Governing Council will be faced with both good news and bad news leading into its next monetary policy meeting on April 15, according to the IIF’s updated version of “Draghi’s Dashboard”.

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