The IIF offers an independent source of global economic and financial research. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the global outlook with a focus on key emerging economies, timely analysis of capital flows to emerging markets and developments in international financial markets.

We focus on risks and policy challenges, drawing on first-hand insights from our interactions with policymakers and member firms and our close involvement with the global regulatory debate.

Members can tap the IIF’s team of highly experienced, international economists and financial analysts for custom briefings on a range of macro, regional, and country issues. 

LATEST IIF RESEARCH

Publication
March 26, 2015

Portfolio flows to emerging markets are estimated to have moderated to $16 billion in March, somewhat below the monthly average of $22 billion in recent years. Equity inflows rose to $10 billion, while debt inflows declined to $6 billion. On a regional basis, EM Asia was the largest recipient of inflows, followed by Latin America. Flows to EM Europe turned positive after 3 months of outflows.

Publication
March 19, 2015

* Markets price in a slower pace of U.S. rate hikes
* Fed drops “patience” but projects less tightening
* UK budget—frontloading the pain
* IIF Spring Meeting in Doha—the quick read

Publication
March 19, 2015

The 2015 budget stepped away from the previous countercyclical fiscal approach and introduced measures to address the structural deficit and stabilize the government debt-to-GDP ratio. Personal income tax rates were raised for the first time in the post-Apartheid era, the expenditure ceiling was lowered, and headcount was frozen for the next two years. Successful consolidation will depend on the government’s ability to hold the line in upcoming wage negotiations with the public sector unions. Although the tighter fiscal stance should take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still expect monetary policy to be tightened later this year.

Publication
March 18, 2015

The regional economy is set to contract marginally in 2015, reflecting more difficult external conditions, but most of all policy shortcomings in key countries. Growing intra-regional divergence reflects an inescapable but often ignored fact of life: sound policies and sustained discipline pay off over time. Ignoring this principle is condemning much of the region to mediocrity.

Publication
March 16, 2015

Lebanon’s economic performance has been lackluster, reflecting policy inaction amid a protracted political crisis as well as the impact of rising regional insecurity. The economy may benefit from the recent sharp fall in oil prices, but the extent of economic recovery will be contingent on further improvement in the security situation. Prices in the country declined in the past few months partly due to one-off factors. A significant decline in the public debt ratio will take strong fiscal and structural reforms to reduce the deficit and create conditions for higher and sustainable growth.

Publication
March 14, 2015

As the top LNG exporter and the eighth largest exporter of petroleum related liquids in the world, the collapse in oil and gas prices will have a material negative impact on external and fiscal surpluses. However, growth is expected to be largely shielded by the country’s plans to maintain fiscal expenditures and continue with projects, reflecting preparations to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022. The risk of a sustained period of low energy prices is mitigated by the country’s large net external assets.

Publication
March 14, 2015

We expect average growth in the MENA region to pick up slightly from 2.8% in 2014 to 3.2% this year, driven by the recoveries in Egypt, Morocco, and Iran. For the MENA oil exporters, the aggregated current account surplus will shrink from about $300 billion in 2014 to $25 billion in 2015, and the fiscal position will shift from a large surplus to a significant deficit. Nevertheless, ample public foreign assets and low debt in most oil exporters in the region will mitigate the adverse impact of low oil prices on economic activity and allow public spending to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. The low oil prices may encourage acceleration and deepening of structural efforts to improve energy efficiency and diversify their economies.

Publication
March 13, 2015

This first edition of the CMM Chartbook is part of the new publication format for the IIF Capital Markets Monitor, and follows last week's Key Issues and CMM Research Note on socially responsible investing. Further CMM Research Notes will be published over the course of the month.

Looking across asset classes, this month's charts focus on the market impact of the launch of the ECB's unprecedented QE program, the surge in the dollar, and implications for emerging markets.

Publication
March 12, 2015

*Record lows for Euro Area bond yields drive the euro towards parity with USD
*Tracking ECB QE—Introducing Draghi’s Dashboard
*China—Sliding activity, more policy reaction coming
*EM Asia—In a cutting mood
*Frontier Asia—Rapid growth, diverse challenges
*Financial inclusion—Lessons from developing economies

Publication
March 12, 2015

Frontier Asia has enjoyed stronger growth than most emerging markets over the past decade. While GDP per capita is still low, the gap with mainstream emerging economies is narrowing quickly, helped by favorable demographics and competitive export sectors. As financial openness and market depth improve, Asian frontier markets will begin to offer a wider range of investment opportunities across fixed income and equity markets.

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