The IIF offers an independent source of global economic and financial research. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the global outlook with a focus on key emerging economies, timely analysis of capital flows to emerging markets and developments in international financial markets.

We focus on risks and policy challenges, drawing on first-hand insights from our interactions with policymakers and member firms and our close involvement with the global regulatory debate.

Members can tap the IIF’s team of highly experienced, international economists and financial analysts for custom briefings on a range of macro, regional, and country issues. 

November 25, 2015

Market performance in recent weeks reflects continued adjustment to the prospect of a December Fed liftoff--the U.S. yield curve has flattened significantly, while mature market equities have been relatively resilient. As G-3 monetary policy continues to diverge, the U.S. dollar has seen renewed gains in recent weeks. Amid the ongoing supply glut and concern about Chinese growth prospects, broad commodity prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2002. Against this backdrop, rising geopolitical strains have weighed on EM equities.

November 25, 2015

Our recent visit to Bangkok found a subdued economy as the country goes through long drawn out political transition

November 24, 2015

Turkey announced its new cabinet today. Mr. Ali Babacan was not given any role, which was somewhat surprising as he had established strong external credibility as a policy-maker based on his record in all the AKP governments since 2002.

November 23, 2015

The Law and Justice party (PiS) gained an absolute majority after the October parliamentary elections. The part has an ambitious policy platform, calling for new spending programs and higher taxes on financial institutions and large retailers.

November 23, 2015

An era has ended. The leader of a center-right coalition, Mauricio Macri has won the race to be Argentina’s new president, emerging victorious in the second round run-off elections with 51.4% of the votes, ahead of the ruling Peronist party’s contender, Daniel Scioli (48.6%). Macri takes office on December 10. His victory marks the end of twelve years of Kirchner administrations and confirms the population’s desire for political and economic change after many years of increasing isolation and deteriorating economic conditions.

November 19, 2015
  • Markets comforted by a gradualist Fed
  • Global growth and trade—looking for a silver lining
November 18, 2015

China’s leadership is trying to boost long-term economic growth while avoiding short-term turbulence. One key long-term hurdle for the economy is the ongoing demographic transition. China’s population is now aging inexorably, slowing growth of the labor force and raising the dependency ratio. Recent announcements regarding the move from a one-child policy to a two-child one are heading in the right direction, but will not be sufficient by themselves.

November 17, 2015

Repositioning ahead of the Fed: With many fund investors maintaining underweight positions in EM securities for more than three months, growing expectations of a December Fed liftoff contributed to withdrawals of over $5.5 billion (0.5% of AUM) from EM funds between October 29 and November 11.

November 17, 2015

During our recent visit to South Africa, we got the feeling of an economy treading water and losing momentum. The economy, which has been hit hard by electricity shortages and a sharp sell-off in metals and minerals, is now being buffeted by one of the severest droughts in decades.

November 12, 2015

* Markets price in still more divergence in monetary policy
* U.S.—countdown to Fed liftoff has begun
* China—mixed signals
* Russia—bottoming out?
* EM debt — fast approaching 200% of GDP