The IIF offers an independent source of global economic and financial research. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the global outlook with a focus on key emerging economies, timely analysis of capital flows to emerging markets and developments in international financial markets.

We focus on risks and policy challenges, drawing on first-hand insights from our interactions with policymakers and member firms and our close involvement with the global regulatory debate.

Members can tap the IIF’s team of highly experienced, international economists and financial analysts for custom briefings on a range of macro, regional, and country issues. 

LATEST IIF RESEARCH

Publication
February 27, 2015
Rise in mutual fund/ETF portfolio allocations to Euro Area equities, Emerging Asia: Following the announcement of the ECB’s QE program, global fund investors have increased exposure to Euro Area equities. The rise in allocations has been more pronounced for core Euro Area countries than for the periphery, reflecting in part the heightened uncertainty about the Greek financial support negotiations during this period. Another notable trend in recent weeks has been greater differentiation in allocations to emerging market assets. India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria and Chile have seen the largest rise in allocations since the start of the year while portfolio weightings for Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Hungary have declined sharply.
Publication
February 26, 2015

* Global equities at record highs as Fed stays patient
* Flash PMIs—stabilizing confidence
* Euro Area banks stopped deleveraging
* EM portfolio flows moderate despite dovish Fed
* Greece—one step back from the abyss
* Malaysia—adjusting to the oil price drop

Publication
February 25, 2015
The February edition of the IIF Global Economic Chartbook summarizes our current views on the global economy, drawing on our latest Global Economic Monitor and including a section on the cross-country implications of lower oil prices. It also updates on our latest assessment of capital flows to emerging economies, bank lending conditions in EMs and emerging market vulnerabilities. It also contains revised sections on the G3 economies.
Publication
February 24, 2015

EM portfolio inflows moderated to $12 billion in February from $23 billion in January. Inflows were about equally split between equity and debt instruments this month. Subdued equity and bond issuance contributed to lower portfolio flows, despite an improvement in risk sentiment. Market expectations of future Fed policy rates were volatile, but overall were a neutral factor for flows.

Publication
February 19, 2015

*Markets read the minutes
*Global economy—year of divergence
*Greece—close to crunch time
*Indonesia—lower inflation and revised budget allow rate cut

Publication
February 19, 2015

2015 is shaping up as the year of divergence: mature economy growth accelerates while EMs lag behind; the Fed is set to hike rates while most other central banks are easing; the oil price drop benefits importers but hurts exporters; and Chinese growth slows as India is accelerating. The big picture across these divergent developments, however, remains a global economy that is slowly gaining speed with the U.S. and Euro Area in the driving seat.

Publication
February 19, 2015
The oil price slump has stoked external default fears and heightened risks of social upheaval. The policy response, thus far, has consisted of seeking additional FX funding and overhauling the foreign exchange system, which implies a de facto 70% devaluation of the bolivar against the dollar. Amid a sizable decline in oil revenues, the country’s high import dependency and increasing external debt repayments, reviving growth while servicing external obligations is a daunting challenge, making a default a clear and present danger.
Publication
February 19, 2015

The extraordinary rise of U.S. shale oil producers has led the U.S. to record crude oil production, rising nearly 4 mbd since 2008 and altering the global oil supply balance. However, high oil prices from 2010 until mid-2014 enabled high-cost operators to take on excessive debt. As prices collapsed in recent months, a large number of the independent exploration and production operators struggled to fund capital investments and manage debt, signaling an eventual decline in output. Based on an analysis of leading E&Ps, we conclude that an extended period of low prices will constrain U.S. crude output growth to only 0.3 mbd this year and 0.1 mbd next year. Over the medium term, the high price elasticity of U.S. shale supplies due to the agility of shale producers will keep the U.S. among the top global producers.

Publication
February 12, 2015

* Better sentiment on risk assets, some decline in volatility
* Markets start to reconsider Fed’s likely path
* Brazil—pay-up time
* Greece talks
* Ukraine—questions for private sector bondholders
* Highlights from the IIF G20 Conference in Istanbul

Publication
February 12, 2015

The first Eurogroup meeting with Greece's FM Varoufakis, on February 11, ended in the early morning—as usual—but without a joint statement as "...ministers couldn't agree on a common approach...on how to take the next steps." The main sticking point is how to frame the negotiation: extension of the current program scheduled to end by February 28, or bridge financing to buy time to negotiate a "new deal". The Eurogroup will meet again on February 16—with technical talks being held between now and Monday.

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