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Economic Analysis

Emerging Market Capital Flows Recovery

The November Capital Flows Tracker shows the largest ever inflows for emerging market equities and debt. EMs attracted around $76.5 bn in November, significantly higher than the $23.5 bn in October, thanks to the headlines on potential vaccines and the resolution of uncertainty regarding the US election.

This is a sharp acceleration in the flows recovery, compared with the tepid pace of flows immediately following the initial outflow episode in March. As a result, Q4 2020 is likely to be the strongest quarter for EM inflows since Q1 2013, i.e. since just before the “taper tantrum.” Excluding China, non-resident portfolio flows to EM are at their strongest pace since Q2 2014, i.e. just prior to the fall in commodity prices that pulled down the terms of trade in many emerging markets, causing their currencies to depreciate.

Read more in our latest Capital Flows Report

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