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Status:
Draft -- Not Published
Will be live at 03/10/2022 07:30
Global Macro Views: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and EM
March 10, 2022
Sanctions have drastically tightened Russia’s financial conditions.
We forecast a very deep recession of -15 percent GDP growth in 2022, …
twice as severe as the 2009 recession and subject to material downside risk.
Prospects for contagion to the rest of EM depend on the path of war in Ukraine.
Severe escalation of the conflict will cause EM capital flows to pull back broadly, …
while a more contained conflict – our baseline – sees divergent fortunes in EM.
Rising commodity prices help EM commodity exporters, especially in LatAm.
But Eastern and Western Europe will be hit hard via weaker trade, …
and big emerging market importers of oil and wheat are at risk.
IIF031022_GMV
(217 KB)
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Categories
Research
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Global Focus
,
Global Macro Views
,
EM Vulnerability
IIF Authors
Robin Brooks
Managing Director and Chief Economist
rbrooks@iif.com
Jonathan Fortun
Economist
jfortun@iif.com
Benjamin Hilgenstock
Economist
bhilgenstock@iif.com
Elina Ribakova
Deputy Chief Economist
eribakova@iif.com