Status: Draft -- Not PublishedWill be live at 03/10/2022 07:30
Global Macro Views: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and EM
- Sanctions have drastically tightened Russia’s financial conditions.
- We forecast a very deep recession of -15 percent GDP growth in 2022, …
- twice as severe as the 2009 recession and subject to material downside risk.
- Prospects for contagion to the rest of EM depend on the path of war in Ukraine.
- Severe escalation of the conflict will cause EM capital flows to pull back broadly, …
- while a more contained conflict – our baseline – sees divergent fortunes in EM.
- Rising commodity prices help EM commodity exporters, especially in LatAm.
- But Eastern and Western Europe will be hit hard via weaker trade, …
- and big emerging market importers of oil and wheat are at risk.