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Publications
Entries for 2015
September 2015 Forecast in Detail
September 2, 2015
CHANGES IN IIF FORECASTS Compared to our July GEM, we have lowered our global growth forecast for both 2015 and 2016 by 0.1pp. This primarily reflect
September 2015 Global Economic Monitor: Storm Out of China
September 2, 2015
For most of this year, there was anxiety that Fed liftoff could lead to a storm across emerging markets. Over the last few weeks, a storm has indeed r
IIF Dispatch: Update from Philippines
September 2, 2015
"¢ Philippines might be one of the more resilient Asian countries to the recent turmoil.' Yes, Philippines is quite exposed
IIF Dispatch: Update from Brazil
September 2, 2015
Below we highlight the main takeaways from our recent trip to Brazil. "¢The economy is trapped in a negative feedback loop. ' The political crisis has
Capital Markets Monitor: EM Equity and FX Selloff: Crisis?
September 2, 2015
Seven years after the Great Financial Crisis, the world's equity markets experienced another bout of sharp sell-offs accompanied by a spike in volatil
Draghi's Dashboard: Further Easing In Prospect?
September 2, 2015
As the ECB prepares for its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, the focus is likely to be on the current turbulence in global financial markets and the
Carbon Markets: Renewed Expectations
August 27, 2015
Despite more subdued trading volumes in recent years, carbon markets are likely to increase in number and size as policymakers develop these markets a
IIF Dispatch: Update on South Korea
August 27, 2015
Our recent visit to Seoul found a country struggling to deal with multiple shocks.' Korea is a country with one foot in the advanced economy world and
Saudi Arabia: The Peg Will Hold
August 27, 2015
One year dollar riyal forwards have risen sharply in reaction to ongoing oil price weakness, large projected fiscal deficits and the start of public d
IIF Flows Alert: Investors Exit EM Equities in Global Risk-off Move
August 27, 2015
Volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets. Net non-resident portfolio flo
IIF Dispatch: Update on South Africa
August 27, 2015
Weak economic data, China-related market turmoil and looming Fed tightening pose a major dilemma for South African policymakers. '·' Data released ove
Weekly Insight: After the Blowout
August 27, 2015
Continued EM differentiation under stress IIF Tracker shows reversal of EM portfolio flows in August China-"two track" monetary easing, more rate
EM Flows Snapshot: Retrenchment Intensifies
August 24, 2015
In light of intensifying market volatility, we'd like to notify you that our updated Daily EM Portfolio Flows Database is available for download on ou
Don't Panic! EM Capital Flows Have Weakened, but NOT Collapsed
August 21, 2015
IIF estimates of the same concept and a
Joint IIF/GA Response to the IAIS HLA Consultation
August 21, 2015
On August 21, the Joint IIF/Geneva Association (GA) HLA Working Group submitted a response letter to the IAIS Higher Loss Absorbency capacity for Glob
Morocco: Macro Stability, but Challenges for Higher Growth
August 20, 2015
The Moroccan authorities have implemented strong policy actions in the past three years to achieve macroeconomic stability and reduce vulnerabilities
Weekly Insight: Behind the Fear Factor
August 20, 2015
Don't panic! EM capital flows have weakened, but NOT collapsed Oil prices-Saudi strategy working but slowly Japan-the long and winding road Greece-
Oil: Assessing the Saudi Strategy
August 19, 2015
The shift in strategy pursued by the Saudis, from one of price stability to one of market share, was aimed at reining in high-cost producers and ultim
Poland: Banks Caught in Election Campaign
August 19, 2015
The radical plan to convert FX housing loans may cost banks $6 billion this year and may reduce their Tier 1 capital ratio by 2.5 percentage points. P
IIF Dispatch: Update on U.S. Shale
August 14, 2015
Under the pressure of a continuing supply glut and a renewed dip in prices in the oil market, output among U.S. shale producers is finally beginning t
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