Entries for 2020

Voluntary carbon offset (VCO) issuance has grown strongly in recent years, doubling in 2019 to nearly 130 MtCO2e; However, trading volumes have been subdued since peaking at 135 MtCO2e in 2008.

The new IMF program improves the funding outlook. An external financing gap next year cannot be ruled out. High borrowing needs would require tapping additional sources. Limited REER adjustment could exacerbate external vulnerability. The February 2021 election adds program implementation risk. 

Demonstrations and strikes continue following the disputed election. The most likely near-term scenario is a prolonged political stalemate. We consider a number of scenarios to assess external financing stress. In the absence of further escalation, reserve losses would be manageable.

We expect Pakistan to return experience modest growth in FY2020/21 following a small contraction in FY2019/20. However, risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside. Recurrent outbreaks of COVID-19, a large fiscal deficit, and high public indebtedness remain major challenges. 

Global sustainable debt issuance surpassed $270bn during the first seven months of 2020, up 5% from 2019. The sustainable debt universe has now topped $1.5tn for the first time—80% in EUR, USD, and CNY 

Widespread demonstrations and strikes followed the presidential election on August 9. Political uncertainty, together with the COVID-19 shock, weigh on the economic outlook. Belarus’ economy is highly dependent on Russia’s energy subsidy and domestic SOEs. The disputed election results mean that international financial support is very unlikely.

The IIF Sustainable Finance Monitor covers key developments in the global sustainable finance agenda. In the August issue, we discuss nature-related risks and biodiversity finance, central banks' green recovery efforts, key policy and regulatory updates, a market snapshot on ESG performance, and SFWG activities and events.

Climate transition risk assessment tools cover a growing range of scenarios, sectors and asset classes; However, modeling approaches and climate scenario assumptions are not always transparent—making comparisons difficult; Standardizing the output of these tools and models should help the interpretation of results and comparability; “Temperature alignment” metrics have become common in recent years, though skepticism about their usefulness persists