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Entries for 'COVID-19'

Global Debt Monitor: Reassessing the Pandemic Impact

Some $4.8 trillion was added to the global debt mountain in Q2 2021, bringing it to an all-time high of $296 trillion. Better news: the global debt/GDP ratio declined significantly in Q2 2021, though this follows a large spike in 2020.

Pakistan: Improved Outlook, But New Threats Loom 

We expect real GDP growth to remain around 4% in FY2021/22. Monetary policy remains accommodative. Adequate net capital inflows will offset the widening CA deficit, increasing FX reserves. We expect further fiscal consolidation supported by ongoing reforms under the IMF EFF arrangement. 

Kazakhstan: Modest Recovery Amid New COVID Surge

Higher oil prices will lead to modest growth, shift the CA to a surplus, and narrow the fiscal deficit. The resurgence of COVID-19 has set the recovery back, but progress on vaccination has improved resiliency. Key reforms to reduce oil dependency and promote private sector growth are needed. 

China Spotlight: What Explains Lackluster Consumption?

Domestic consumption lagged export growth in China’s post-COVID-19 recovery. This is in part because stimulus policies have targeted businesses instead of households. Surging household debt, uneven income and wealth distribution across China have tamped down consumption rates.

LatAm Views: Chile Virtual Trip Notes

Growth prospects have improved, spurred by copper prices and public spending; Chile is on track to be one of the first LatAm countries to return to pre-pandemic output. However, political uncertainty weighs on investment, clouding the medium-term outlook. Doubt is rising on the rollback of spending. 

11th Annual EY-IIF Bank Risk Management Survey Finds Climate Change Now a Top Concern

More than nine in ten (91%) of surveyed bank chief risk officers (CROs) view climate change as the top emerging risk over the next five years. Only about half (52%) of CROs said the same in 2019.

Frontier LatAm: Costa Rica’s Tough Adjustment Ahead 

Costa Rica has secured an IMF Extended Fund Facility agreement, as COVID-19 has intensified ongoing fiscal woes. However, significant reform progress seems challenging ahead of the February 2022 elections, and higher interest rates would exacerbate the already-demanding adjustment. 

The Role of Financial Markets and Institutions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

A new report from the Institute of International Finance, the Financial Services Forum and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association examines several important issues related to the functioning of the financial markets – in particular, large global banks and dealers – during the COVID-19 pandemic.

LatAm Views: Chile’s Recovery and Policy Shift 

Rapid vaccination and soaring copper prices bode well for a strong recovery. However, high caseloads have prompted renewed mobility restrictions. While a robust policy framework has allowed for sustained policy support, ongoing political changes could result in an expanded state footprint. 

Qatar: Well Positioned for Post-Pandemic Rebound 

The vaccine program, strengthening of energy prices, and end of the rift with other GCC countries will support the recovery in Qatar. We expect the current account and fiscal balances to shift to sizeable surpluses in 2021 and 2022. 

 

 

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