Entries for 'DSSI'

The Institute of International Finance welcomes the opportunity to respond to the House of Commons International Development Committee’s inquiry on debt relief in low-income countries. We commend the Parliament for taking this step in investigating this important issue.

This Second Addendum references the recent extension of and modifications to the G20/Paris Club Debt Service Suspension Initiative through December 31, 2021, providing a similar extension of/modifications to the private sector Terms of Reference.

Total debt in frontier markets (FM) reached a record high of nearly 110% of GDP in 2020, up from less than 100% in 2019. We have added 15 new countries to our FM debt database.

2020 saw a record number of sovereign bond defaults: Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, Lebanon, Suriname, and Zambia; However, most low-income economies continue to roll over their debt obligations successfully; To date, only 18 low-income countries have asked to suspend debt repayments for H1 2021—down from 44 in 2020  ; For help beyond the DSSI, a few countries have turned to the G20 Common Framework; questions about the process remain

As the mountain of negative-yielding debt hits new record highs, EM sovereigns continue to benefit from the search for yield ; Emerging markets set to rely increasingly on USD borrowing as abundant global central bank liquidity persists; China has significantly cut back its lending to low-income countries

DSSI-eligible SSA countries have not tapped capital markets during the pandemic. However, roughly half of these countries have continued to attract net banking inflows. Large revenue losses have brought the government debt-to-revenue ratio to a staggering 480% in 2020.

Gross external financing needs of DSSI-eligible countries are set to remain high at over $260bn (12.5% of GDP) in 2021; General government debt in DSSI-eligible countries is projected to peak at 56% of GDP in 2021—up from 50% in 2019

COVID-19 highlights the need for structural reform in emerging market sovereign debt financing—and makes it more urgent. High, procyclical funding costs—coupled with lower trend growth—make it difficult to find fiscal space to support sustainable recovery.  Failure to deal with this challenge today could result in much higher future costs for the global economy.

Total frontier market debt hit a new record of over 120% of GDP in Q2 2020, up 6 percentage points from end-2019. The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a spotlight on rising global debt levels and sovereign debt vulnerabilities. 

To date, over 40 countries have requested forbearance via the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The DSSI could freeze over $11.5 billion of debt payments due to official bilateral creditors between May and December 2020.

After a challenging Q1, emerging and frontier market international bond issuance picked up significantly in Q2. High yield sovereign borrowers have been accessing the market; borrowing costs are well below peak Q1 levels. We see robust issuance in most emerging and frontier markets, though sub-Saharan African borrowers are notably absent.