Entries for 'Trade'

This week’s Digital Finance Developments discusses recent progress in digital trade agreements, highlighting a surprising development at the World Trade Organization. We explore the complex dynamics around data and digital services trade agreements, calling attention to future areas of concern.

The resurgence of geopolitical blocs has coincided with a significant increase in regional conflicts over the past decade while contributing to stagnation in international trade and capital flows—and delays in sovereign debt workouts.

While rising geopolitical tensions create challenges for transition finance, risks are still in line with historical norms. However, continued stagnation in global trade and capital flows suggests de-globalization could stall a net zero future. Strategic trade wars—likely inevitable on the road to Net Zero—will bring the key role of export credit agencies to the fore.

Export controls on goods going to Russia have upended global trade. There is a widespread rise in exports to Central Asia since the invasion, … whic...

The IIF outlines 5 key policy tools that international economic policymakers should be striving to use, now. No one action can turn the tide against COVID-19, but international coordination will prove crucial to limiting the damage.

Central banks poised for easing as clouds gather over the global growth and earnings outlook; Policy uncertainty remains a key risk with no-deal Brexit and potential U.S. FX intervention in the spotlight ; China accelerates market opening for foreign investors in a bid to stoke growth and ease trade tensions; Leveraged loan issuance is over 50% below H118 levels; lower global rates reduce the appeal of floating-rate securities; Who holds leveraged loans? Institutional investors may have significant exposure via collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)    

Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes — but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong — but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product

U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails—except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets—and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019

Markets reassess chances for a Fed rate cut this year amid more optimism on trade talks, Chinese growth; Policy backdrop feeds into asset valuation in emerging markets; China may be taking a break from deleveraging, but non-financial corporate debt is still over 150% of GDP and at over 50% of GDP, household debt in China is well above the EM average—and growing strongly