Entries for 'Phillips Curve'

Last year we published a series of reports on red versus blue states, "¦ which showed that red state labor markets are materially lagging blue ones. W

Longer-term Treasury yields have risen sharply year-to-date. A key question for markets is whether the sell-off will continue. We examine the various

Trade policy is becoming a key area of focus for the administration. We examine the adjustment in the US current account in recent years, looking t

Low inflation has been a conundrum in recent years, "¦ but currently nowhere more so than in the Euro zone and Japan. We evaluate how G-3 inflation ha

Red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs boom. But the divide between red and blue states goes deeper than just job creation. We develop

We have shown that red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs recovery. We examine three possible drivers: (i) demographics; (ii) opioids;

We compare the US labor force participation rate to other G10 economies. The decline in the US participation rate is a clear outlier, especially wh

Red states are falling behind blue states in the labor market recovery, a phenomenon we documented in a Global Macro Views earlier this week. We fo

Red states are not benefitting the same as blue states from jobs growth, with the nature of th

The October labor market data on balance were a hawkish signal for the Fed, because the most dovish component - the drop in average hourly earnings gr

With the announcement of the next Fed Chair expected imminently, there is a lot of speculation over how policy might differ across the various candida

This week's reduction of asset purchases from the ECB will try to accomplish a "dovish taper," whereby withdrawal of stimulus will likely be accompani

Concerns about "premature deindustrialization" featured in several panel sessions at our Annual Member Meetings last week. This Global Macro Views pro

In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo

We examine how market pricing for key central banks has moved over the past year and update our forecast for the G-3 central banks. We continue to exp

We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process

We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist

We look more closely at the recent pick up in core inflation, and find that much of it can be explained by just three sectors, all related to tourism.

We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -

Ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, we discuss the tensions facing the Fed. Markets are expecting a slightly hawkish outcome given how dovish market