Entries for 'Capital Flows'

This note is the first in a series that assesses the effect of a strong dollar across different EM regions… …an impact that has been highlighted by r...

Nonresident capital inflows will increase to $136bn (6% of GDP) in 2024, primarily driven by sovereign bond issuances in Saudi Arabia to finance its fiscal deficit. However, net resident outflows, largely GCC transfers to SWFs, will still far exceed net nonresident inflows.

After bottoming out over the past two years, the momentum of nonresident capital flows to emerging markets has shifted. This in large part due to a better EM outlook relative to advanced economies, with average EM output growth likely to be higher and EM interest rate spreads likely to widen.

While rising geopolitical tensions create challenges for transition finance, risks are still in line with historical norms. However, continued stagnation in global trade and capital flows suggests de-globalization could stall a net zero future. Strategic trade wars—likely inevitable on the road to Net Zero—will bring the key role of export credit agencies to the fore.

We forecast solid – if unspectacular – global growth next year, … with above-consensus forecasts for the US, Latin America and China, … while the on...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$13.8 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were -$12.0 bn and -$1.8 bn. Chinese equities posted $4.4 bn in outflow...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $22.1 bn in June. Equity and debt flows were $12.3 bn and $9.8 bn. Chinese equities posted $1.9 bn in inflows.

Elevated tensions between the US and China are raising lots of questions. Markets are focused on how much de-globalization and de-risking this is cau...

In the immediate aftermath of the SVB shock almost three months ago, … the critical question was if SVB was a genuinely new shock hitting the US, … ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $10.4 bn in May. Equity and debt flows were $6.9 bn and $3.5 bn. Chinese equities posted $0.1 bn in inflows.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.8 bn in April. Equity and debt flows were $2.1 bn and $7.7 bn. Chinese equities posted $3.8 bn in inflows.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.4 bn in March. Equity and debt flows were $6.8 bn and $2.6 bn. Chinese equities posted $7.2 bn in inflows.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $22.9 bn in February. Equity and debt flows were $4.9 bn and $17.9 bn. Chinese equities posted $2.4 bn in inflows. ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $65.7 bn in January. Equity and debt flows were $23.5 bn and $42.2 bn. Chinese equities posted $17.6 bn in inflows. ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $1.7 bn in December. Equity and debt flows were $4.4 bn and -$2.6 bn. Chinese equities posted $6.3 bn in inflows.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $37.4 bn in November. Equity and debt flows were $23.0 bn and $14.4 bn. Chinese equities posted $8.5 bn in inflows. ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $9.2 bn in October. Equity and debt flows were $1.7 bn and $7.6 bn. Chinese equities posted $7.6 bn in outflows.

Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$2.9 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were -$8.9 bn and $6.0 bn. Chinese equities posted $0.7 bn in outflows. ...

Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$9.8 bn in July. Equity and debt flows were -$1.0 bn and -$8.8 bn. Chinese equities posted $3.5 bn in outflows.

Non-resident portfolio flows to local markets have recovered Covid-related losses. Looking at country allocations, important shifts have taken place in recent years. Foreign holdings are significantly lower in Brazil, Mexico, Poland, and Turkey, and higher in Egypt, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa, due to policies and FX. Importantly, pressure on EM to defend their currencies has declined in recent years. However, EM are now more directly exposed via foreign investment in local bonds. And the synchronization of global inflation makes them vulnerable to DM inflation.