Entries for 'Debt Sustainability'

In a higher-rate environment, the global debt stock rose by $10 trillion to a new record high of $307 trillion in H1 2023. 

The global debt stock grew by $8.3 trillion to a near-record $305 trillion in Q1 2023; the combination of high debt levels and rising interest rates has pushed up debt service costs, prompting concerns about the use of leverage in the financial system.

Some $120 billion was added to the debt pile of frontier markets in 2022, bringing it to an all-time high of $3.6 trillion.

The nominal USD value of global debt declined by some $4 trillion to slightly below $300 trillion in 2022. Helped by stronger growth and inflation, global debt/GDP fell again in 2022 – but is still above pre-pandemic levels.

The external debt burden of many emerging markets surged in 2022 as EM currencies fell against the USD. Given the high risk of cyclical depreciation and ensuing currency mismatch, sovereign debtors raising foreign currency funds should consider appropriate hedging or other risk mitigation tools.

The growing links between financial leverage and non-financial risks (e.g. climate) are complex and will require new data tools and metrics to monitor and address.

As borrowing slowed, frontier market debt dipped to $3.5 trillion in Q2 2022—still $480 billion above pre-pandemic levels. Helped by economic recovery in an inflationary environment, the FM debt-to-GDP ratio edged down to 103% in Q2 2022.

Following four quarters of consecutive decline, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is edging back up, approaching 350% of GDP in Q2 2022. We expect the global debt ratio to reach 352% of GDP by end-2022.

Total global debt rose by $3.3 trillion in Q1 2022 to a new record of over $305 trillion-mostly due to China and the U.S.

Total debt in frontier markets surged to a new record high of $3.5 trillion in 2021-some $500 billion above pre-pandemic levels. However, after reaching an all-time high in 2020, FM debt declined to 108% of GDP in 2021-helped by recovery and inflation.

Some $10 trillion was added to the global debt mountain last year, bringing the total to a new record high of $303 trillion.

Economic recovery remains uneven and patchy for low and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs); Despite easing external debt strains, more than half of LLMICs are at high risk of—or already in—debt distress; Little information to date on how the G20 Common Framework is being implemented; Greater debt transparency could galvanize ESG investments in emerging and developing economies—a key COP26 theme.

Some $4.8 trillion was added to the global debt mountain in Q2 2021, bringing it to an all-time high of $296 trillion. Better news: the global debt/GDP ratio declined significantly in Q2 2021, though this follows a large spike in 2020.

Efforts to improve debt transparency are underway in both the private and public sectors; the IMF and World Bank, for example, provide technical assis...

Good investor relations practices call for better debt transparency that supports regular, meaningful debtor-creditor dialogue; Limited access to timely, accurate and clear data can hinder capital flows to developing countries, while improvements in debt transparency are associated with lower borrowing costs and higher sovereign credit ratings; In cases of default, fair debt restructuring requires active information-sharing between debtor and creditors.

High and rising sovereign debt levels have greatly increased the likelihood of further debt strains; Better sovereign debt crisis prevention and resolution is needed to reflect fundamental market changes in recent years; We believe that efforts to strengthen existing mechanisms should center on improving debt transparency, regular and meaningful private-public sector dialogue, and integrating ESG/SDG considerations—all will help borrowers’ market access.

Transparency around sovereign debt obligations remains limited, particularly for emerging and developing economies; International financial institutions could help by making more granular debt data available to the public; Greater clarity around the process, terms and conditions of sovereign debt restructuring would also support debt transparency.