Released twice a year, this flagship report provides a comprehensive assessment and forecasts of flows for 25 emerging markets.
Surprisingly, EM currencies have been quite a mixed bag, and our high frequency tracking of flows shows a mixed rebound in Q1. We believe the underlying issue is that investors are over-positioned, with a positioning overhang after a decade of loose G-3 monetary policy. We upgrade our capital flows projection to EM only modestly, with non-resident flows of $1,260 bn in 2019, after $1,135 bn in 2018.
Despite a sharp drop in portfolio flows, 2018 should see broadly stable non-resident capital flows to emerging markets of over $1.1 trillion, with FDI
Given the more challenging landscape, with a stronger USD and rising U.S. rates, we have cut our forecasts for non-resident portfolio flows to emergin
Chinese banks' cross-border lending has grown over 500% since 2010-but has plenty of room to grow further: at just 5% of GDP, cross-border loan exposu