The world economy is unlikely to experience a synchronized recovery from the COVID-19 shock. Despite robust global growth of 5.8% and 4.8% in 2021-22, we see uneven and fragile prospects. Emerging markets will be vulnerable due to the early withdrawal of monetary and fiscal support. Furthermore, vaccination progress differs considerably as the Delta variant continues to spread. A further weakening of growth in China could have important effects on the broader EM universe. Despite an expected tightening of global liquidity, we still see an EM “taper tantrum” as unlikely. We project non-resident flows to emerging markets excl. China to reach around $850 bn in 2021. Driving factors are a recovery in FDI, strong portfolio debt flows, and the IMF’s SDR allocation. Looking ahead, our main concern is ”secular stagnation” in EM following an incomplete recovery.