Macro Notes provide analysis on key macro and geopolitical developments. They complement the existing IIF product line up, which includes Global Macro Views, Economic Views, in depth country reports and data.
We have estimated Ukraine’s financing gap at $2 bn (1.5% of GDP). A key ingredient is a stable current account despite growth recovery. This is due to a favorable shift in the current account toward the EU. Domestic politics aside, a key risk is the growth slowdown in Europe.
We do a balance of payments forecast to assess the funding gap for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a follow-up IMF program of $2 bn under benign assumptions. Political impasse is a key risk due to parliamentary elections in October.