Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'
September 7, 2023
We look into the issue of exchange rate misalignment in Egypt. We find that the current real effective exchange rate is overvalued by around 10%. The results support our view that Egypt's currency must be allowed to float, and that this must also be accompanied by tighter structural policies.
August 16, 2023
Capital inflows are set to rebound in 2023 as sovereigns, particularly Saudi Arabia, issue more debt to finance fiscal deficits. However, resident outflows, largely GCC transfers to sovereign wealth funds, will continue to far exceed nonresident inflows.
August 8, 2023
This note is the third installment of our series of reports focusing on Egypt. We look at the composition of privatization proceeds in FY 2022/23 and then analyze potential prospects for privatization in FY 2023/24.
July 31, 2023
We continue our series of reports focusing on Egypt by analyzing the fiscal outlook for the next fiscal year.
July 3, 2023
This note kicks off a series of reports focusing on Egypt, which we plan to release over the coming months. Today’s note will discuss Egypt’s external financing picture for FY23 and FY24.
June 25, 2023
The real estate prices will continue to rise in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, albeit at lower pace.
May 11, 2023
The magnitude and multiplicity of the challenges facing Lebanon require close collaboration with the IMF, including undertaking a comprehensive reform program.
April 26, 2023
• We expect average oil prices to decline from $100 a barrel in 2022 to $85 in 2023 and $80 in 2024.
• The main downside risk to the oil price forecast is weaker than-expected global growth.
• Growth accelerated to 7.9% in 2022, driven by a substantial increase in hydrocarbon output and elevated oil prices.
April 6, 2023
MENAP non-oil countries are facing unprecedented challenges. We expect growth to slow sharply, and the current account and fiscal deficits to remain large.
April 4, 2023
CCA countries have successfully managed to avoid any negative spillovers from Russian sanctions. Higher remittances and energy prices led to strong growth. However, risks of secondary sanctions remain, as Western officials begin to clamp down on countries potentially aiding sanction evasion.
March 20, 2023
Authorities’ reluctance to implement the needed reforms has aggravated Tunisia’s preexisting debt problems. In the absence of an IMF program, persistent fiscal and balance of payments financing shortfalls will jeopardize macroeconomic stability.
February 13, 2023
In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region, Garbis Iradian. The discussio...
February 1, 2023
Although vulnerabilities have increased, Egypt’s challenges are not insurmountable. The government’s ambitious and comprehensive program with the IMF could bring fundamental policy changes, transforming Egypt into a more open, market-oriented, economy.
January 3, 2023
Schedule for the IIF's 2023 investor trips released.
December 14, 2022
Overall growth is set to decelerate, dragged down by stagnant oil production while non-oil real GDP growth will remain robust. The current account and fiscal surpluses will narrow in 2023 due to moderation in oil prices. The authorities have made significant progress in implementing crucial reforms.
November 16, 2022
The short-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, supported by elevated oil prices. Structural reforms are needed to help diversify the economy.
October 31, 2022
Investor sentiment towards oil exporters in the region will remain favorable due to elevated energy prices. Total capital inflows will remain modest in 2023, as sovereigns’ issue less debt due to continued fiscal surpluses. FDI will become the main conduit for nonresident capital inflows.
October 9, 2022
Growth in the nine MENA oil exporters will accelerate. The impact of tighter global financial conditions is expected to be limited. The combined current account and fiscal balances will remain in large surpluses. Risks to the outlook are well contained given the ample public foreign assets.
August 29, 2022
Potential IMF financial support would help meet the large financing needs and strengthen confidence in the economy more broadly.
July 21, 2022
Prolonged inaction by the authorities has worsened economic conditions and deepened the financial crisis.