Entries for 'Phillips Curve'
April 13, 2023
Russia in 2022 had a large “excess” current account surplus, …
reflected in abundant domestic liquidity and resilient growth.
Counterpart to this wa...
April 6, 2023
Markets have been focused on US bank deposit outflows, …
fearing that such outflows could translate into weak lending.
The good news is there is li...
March 23, 2023
Recent events have caused markets to raise their US recession odds.
Markets often overreact to shocks and it’s possible they’re doing that now.
To p...
March 16, 2023
This week’s US core CPI inflation print was a truly mixed bag.
Our proxy for underlying services inflation continues to pick up, …
and we’ve been un...
March 9, 2023
Severe supply chain disruptions due to the COVID pandemic have faded, …
which has encouraged the belief that their impact on inflation has faded too....
March 2, 2023
One of the biggest questions facing markets is how quickly US inflation will slow.
This will determine the pace and extent of future Federal Reserve ...
February 23, 2023
Last week we discussed trends in US inflation since the early 1900s.
Over this timeframe there have been at least six major inflation shocks.
We oft...
February 16, 2023
We review the stylized facts of US inflation since the first World War.
First, there is no sign that inflation has trended down in the last 100 years...
January 26, 2023
Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen substantially, …
making it tempting to think that the energy shock is over.
We do not share that conclusion...
January 19, 2023
We wrongly forecast Germany would go into recession in 2022.
Instead, German GDP growth has been remarkably resilient so far.
We look through the le...
September 1, 2022
• Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, …
• we switched to forecasting recession in the Euro zone, …
• in addition to projecting a fa...
June 30, 2022
We have been warning of global recession for some time.
Our focus was on the Euro zone due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, …
and on ...
June 23, 2022
The ECB looks set to unveil its new anti-fragmentation tool at its July meeting.
That tool will most likely be a form of QE for specific Euro periph...
June 2, 2022
ECB QE helped anchor Euro periphery yields during COVID, …
a welcome step given turmoil in global bond markets at the time.
But the stabili...
April 14, 2022
Before COVID, there was broad agreement that R* is very low, …
so that low fed funds did not in fact mean monetary policy was loose, …...
December 16, 2021
Fed QE essentially absorbed all COVID debt issuance, …
in effect neutralizing potential upward pressure on US yields.
We update well-known academi...
December 9, 2021
Japan has been in a stable equilibrium for a long time, …
with high levels of government debt and very low bond yields.
A decade of BoJ QQE with y...
November 11, 2021
Policy stimulus has returned the economy to its pre-COVID trend, …
something that was never accomplished in the wake of the Great Recession.
The F...
October 7, 2021
Last week we discussed US Treasuries’ safe haven status, …
focusing on whether markets are starting to question that status, …
given Treasuries sa...
September 30, 2021
For a few scary days in early March 2020 when COVID first hit, …
US Treasury securities stopped behaving like a safe haven asset, …
with the 10-ye...