Higher oil prices will widen the current account surplus from 2.5% of GDP in 2017 to 9.6% in 2018. The fiscal deficit, including investment income, wi
We have been writing on the growing vulnerabilities across EM, where we have been focused on two countries: Turkey and Argentina . Given recent dev
China still enjoys strong growth momentum driven by services and advanced manufacturing. Trade tensions and deleveraging of a very indebted economy ar
Labor force attachment has been studied extensively for DMs, "¦ where participation has risen among women and older workers. We document key trends in
Mounting trade tensions reflect past and present currency manipulation. We document the "fear of floating" that exists in countries across EM Asia, ..
Given the more challenging landscape, with a stronger USD and rising U.S. rates, we have cut our forecasts for non-resident portfolio flows to emergin
Demonetization and GST were quasi-natural experiments, with profound and long-lasting impacts on the economy. This meant India missed the synchronized global recovery, but a rebound is underway from low initial conditions. Broad money has not recovered fully from demonetization, but credit growth and capital flows will support investment. Easing appreciation pressure will be positive for exports, even though structural competitiveness issues remain.