FROG s ( F rivolously R elated O utput G aps) are oddly small output gap estimates, "¦ which reflect potential GDP bending down to meet years of weak
In this note, we examine the evolution of breakeven oil prices in the six GCC countries, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. We expect extern
In a Global Macro Views in December we introduced BoP Nowcasts, "¦ which map commodity prices and capital flows into daily forecasts for the 2018 BoP.
Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a
China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f