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March 2018 EM Growth Tracker

Our EM Growth Tracker fell to 6.6% (3m/3m sa ar) in March, 0.2pp lower than February. This follows a brief period of substantial improvement in our tr

Weekly Insight: Cherry Blossoms in the Wind

Despite U.S. fiscal expansion, the global supply of safe assets may be nearing a cyclical peak' Large U.S. banks report record net income in Q1, helpe

Saudi Arabia: Moving Beyond Oil?

Economic prospects have improved somewhat, supported by fiscal stimulus and higher oil prices. The fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia is now on a firmer

Brazil: Growth Rebounds

Recent years have seen profound political turmoil weigh on activity. The stage is now set for a rebound in activity; we forecast solid growth this yea

Global Macro Views: Credit and the China GDP Puzzle

We recently introduced a new activity tracker for China. That tracker displays far more swings than the official GDP data. We explore if swings in cre

Global Macro Views: Global Growth Desynchronizes

We discuss why global growth was so synchronized last year, which we trace back to the Shanghai G20 meeting in February 2016. That meeting followed

Weekly Insight: Beating the War Drums

Geopolitics boosting oil prices, but this s

U.S. Policy Update: Iran Deal Faces Uncertain Future

We do not expect President Trump to sign Iran sanctions waivers on May 12th' However, this will not result in the immediate collapse of the JCPOA The

Nigeria: Growth Rebound amid Structural Weakness

Growth is recovering as oil prices and production rebound. Structural weaknesses cloud the medium-term outlook. The security situation is tenuous, and

Global Economic Monitor: Signs of Desynchronization

The world economy expanded in a synchronized manner in 2017. Headline growth in 2018 will be on an even stronger footing, "¦ though we detect first si
 

 

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