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CFR October 2019: Capital Flows Swing on Trade Tensions

We see global growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019 and only recovering modestly in 2020. Trade tensions weigh on growth and stoke volatility in emerging market capital flows. Increasingly accommodative monetary policy supports risk appetite and flows to EM. Global push factors appear to be the key drivers of EM flows and asset performance. Investors’ search for yield is deepening synchronization across emerging markets. Differentiation is, to a significant degree, the result of changes in benchmark weights.

Global Macro Views: No Recession Signal from the US Labor Market

Slowing jobs growth is adding to already elevated recession fears. We show that recent slowing is consistent with a longer-term trend, reflecting the gradual tightening in the labor market over years. Slower jobs growth is therefore a symptom of a maturing labor market, and should not be interpreted as a signal that US recession is rising.

IIF Staff Paper on Cyber Risk Insurance: Advances in Risk Management, Prioritizing Prevention and Protection

This IIF Staff Paper: “Cyber Risk Insurance Update: Advances in Risk Management, Prioritizing Prevention and Protection” reviews how the cyber risk insurance market is maturing. 

Macro Notes: Romania - Investors Betting on Course Correction

Investor interest in government bonds has picked up in recent months in the hope of a change in government and implementation of reforms. Macroeconomic imbalances, however, have risen to concerning levels, and a renewed EU Excessive Deficit Procedure is clearly on the horizon.

Economic Views: Brazil’s Pension Reform and Fiscal Risk

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pension reform. Fewer cuts will be needed elsewhere to meet fiscal rules, ... making overall adjustment mana...

IIF and GFMA Release Joint Discussion Draft Principles Supporting the Strengthening of Operational Resilience Maturity in Financial Services

These principles support the financial industry’s efforts to continuously improve and strengthen the level of operational resilience for the firms, the customers, markets, the sector, and the broader economies they support nationally and across the globe.

AATG Episode 3: Deborah Lehr, Vice Chairman and Executive Director of The Paulson Institute

The Paulson Institute’s Deborah Lehr joins the latest episode of our “All About the Green” podcast.

Weekly Insight: Making progress

Takeaways from Climate Week NYC, including a push for better disclosure of climate-related risks; New IIF climate finance workshops:  how best to measure and analyze climate risk and opportunities?; Progress on the UN sustainable development goals will require more partnerships: the NGFS gets new members; Issuance of SOFR bonds by U.S. federal agencies helps improve liquidity in this key market ahead of LIBOR transition

Global Macro Views: The Growing Debate over Output Gaps

We started the Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO) earlier this year, ... arguing that consensus estimates for Euro periphery output gaps ...

Macro Notes: South Africa - Debt Sustainability in Question

South Africa’s debt could reach as high as 95% of GDP in a pessimistic scenario. Low growth, high interest payments, and a decade of mismanagement are at fault. SOEs are a drain on public finances, and Eskom alone could add 6pp to debt. Mitigating factors are SARB independence, limited FX debt, and long maturities. Moody’s may put SA on negative watch but keep the IG rating for a little longer.




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