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Macro Notes: Interest in Russia Remains Despite Sanctions

Portfolio flows to Russia are weakly correlated with global flows, likely due to sanctions. Despite the risk of further sanctions, government debt remains attractive to investors, as Russia stands out among EM due to exceptionally low macroeconomic vulnerabilities. In the long run, sanctions can lead to less prudent policies and reduce growth prospects. We expect discussions of Russia sanctions in the US Congress to pick up again in the fall.

Economic Views: Argentina’s External Financing Needs

We have long argued Argentina’s program is too small, given our estimates for the country’s external funding gap. The principal drivers of that gap are debt amortization and – to a large and rising extent – resident capital flight. Debt reprofiling is unlikely to change these numbers.

CEEMEA Views: Turkey - Bank Lending Set to Pick Up

Borrowing costs have fallen sharply as a result of policy changes. Lending remains subdued due to concerns over bank asset quality. Credit-fueled growth has increased private sector indebtedness. Banks remain well-capitalized and profitability is set to increase. 

September U.S. Regulatory Update

The September U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Fed’s updated stress capital buffer proposal, announcement of a real-time payment system, and September Beige Book, in addition to a preview of Congressional priorities this fall regarding banking, fintech, and anti-money laundering legislation. 

Weekly Insight: Back-to-school risk-on

Recession or new normal? Extensive U.S. yield curve inversion feeds concerns about a global growth slowdown; Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on earnings estimates; Low emerging market valuations present opportunities—particularly when combined with credible reform prospects; Mozambique’s debt restructuring--putting a lid on the “tuna bond” can; Sustainable debt issuance set to hit a new record high of over $350 billion this year

FRT Episode 47: Quantum Computing

Michael Brett (Rigetti Computing) returns to FRT, discussing the opportunities for quantum computing in financial services, market landscape for the technology, first-mover advantages, and the alignment with banks’ Cloud strategies (with Brad Carr and Conan French).

Global Macro Views: Trade Tensions and Supply Chains

There is growing concern over disruption to global supply chains, given the now multiple rounds of tariffs in the US-China trade dispute. Despite all this, China’s current account and trade surplus look robust. This resilience is partly driven by a shift in the composition of exports away from the US and towards destinations like ASEAN and the Euro zone.

Cloud Service Providers and Criticality: Potential Treatments and Solutions

Building on the IIF’s previous 3-part series on cloud, we explore the critical role of Cloud Service Providers, and some of the policy options on market concentration and resiliency. 

Macro Notes: Russia - BoP Buildup of Foreign Assets

Low breakeven oil price for the current account provides buffer against shocks. Introduction of the fiscal rule in 2017 has led to significant reserve accumulation. Debt repayments spiked after the 2014 sanctions but are now less of a concern. However, private sector capital outflows have picked up and may accelerate. Portfolio inflows have returned but are sensitive to sanctions announcements.

China Views: Is External Debt a Devaluation Constraint?

China’s $2 trillion external liability seems large, but is manageable given China’s GDP, exports, and foreign assets. FDI loans, trade credits, and bank deposits are relatively sticky. China’s external debt overhang should be a minor concern for BoP and RMB depreciation. 




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