Entries for 'U.S.'

This paper highlights why sanctions on Russia should not be considered static. Rather, they are a "moving target" requiring regular adjustments as their consequences play out and countermeasures are taken. Importantly, we have also yet to reach the top rung of the escalation ladder. Western allies could take additional steps in the coming weeks and months to keep up pressure on the Russian government.

Sanctions on Russia combined with supply shortages elsewhere may keep oil prices elevated despite lower global demand. Higher global oil supply combined with weaker demand growth could stabilize the oil market in H2 2022 and in 2023

This paper will systematically look at additional sanctions that have been or could be imposed on Russia in several key areas: global payments systems, access to the U.S. Dollar, sovereign debt, hydrocarbon exports, and export controls. Equally important, it will not only analyze the effects of these latest sanctions on the Russian economy but also the broader implications for international financial markets. For example, one of the biggest impacts on the global economy is likely to be on trade. While details on how the new sanctions affect energy are still emerging, we do know that sanctions on its central bank will make it more difficult for Russia to export energy and other commodities. As a result, we may see commodity prices surge.

High oil prices since end-2020 are largely driven by pervasive supply shortages from the lack of adequate investment. Current futures contracts point to Brent average oil prices of $73/bbl and $69/bbl in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

One motivation for Fed QE was always to push investors out of US Treasuries into riskier assets. Previous QE programs achieved this by pushing down yields and flattening the yield curve. Successive Fed QE programs increasingly embraced this underlying rationale for LSAPs, culminating in QE3 that had a weighted average maturity far longer than previous programs, consistent with the idea that one objective of QE is to take duration out of the market.

Base metal prices have far exceeded our initial forecasts, supported by low inventory. We expect average base metal prices to be 44% higher in 2021 and decline by 5% in 2022 as some supply constraints ease. 

Could a Chinese CBDC displace the dollar as the global reserve currency, undermine the U.S. sanctions regime or provide the Chinese government with the ability to increase surveillance on citizens?

We expect Brent oil prices to average $47/b in 2021, but upside risks are significant. Low interest rates, a weaker US$, tighter supply, and strong demand from East Asia are boosting non-fuel commodity prices. 

While a U.S. shift towards renewable energy has been slow to date, the sector is poised for significant growth. Strong policies are needed to accelerate the energy transition to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on the labor market.

The April U.S. Regulatory Update covers U.S. regulators’ responses to COVID-19, the CARES Act, the recent FSOC meeting, the Fed’s stress capital buffer and CCAR announcements, and more. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal Government have begun to implement a series of policy measures to address the economic and financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two grids in this document break out the recent policy responses. 

Slowing jobs growth is adding to already elevated recession fears. We show that recent slowing is consistent with a longer-term trend, reflecting the gradual tightening in the labor market over years. Slower jobs growth is therefore a symptom of a maturing labor market, and should not be interpreted as a signal that US recession is rising.

The September U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Fed’s updated stress capital buffer proposal, announcement of a real-time payment system, and September Beige Book, in addition to a preview of Congressional priorities this fall regarding banking, fintech, and anti-money laundering legislation. 

The IIF has summarized key themes that emerged from the Facebook Libra hearings before both the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee this week in Washington.