We examine the decline in core PCE inflation, looking at individual components within the inflation basket. We find that the decline can be accounted
We examine the labor market "churn" and perform a sensitivity analysis on the US unemployment rate. Factoring in some slowing in hiring and a gradual
Why is Retail Employment Falling so Sharply? We examine whether changing shopping habits can explain large job losses. Our results show that the subs
Mr. Phillips Goes to Washington In the aftermath of the Fed meeting, and following our previous analysis, we show that the Phillips curve plays an im
We are introducing a new publication, which we are calling Global Macro Views . This product aims to complement existing IIF research, by discussing b
Debates rage, but the caravan moves on Greece -light at the end of the tunnel Puerto Rico bankruptcy -bigger than Detroit Machine learning -revoluti
Download PDF (578.93 KB) IIF Authors Kristen Silverb
Markets reassess the Trump trade US-a surge in animal spirits China-no deleveraging in 2016 Brazil-monetary easing accelerates Turkey-tightening liqui
1.' Markets brace for higher bond yields, stronger USD: As investors digest the implications of the Fed's rather hawkish hike (see below), they see l