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Entries for 'U.S.'

June 14, 2017

Mr. Phillips Goes to Washington In the aftermath of the Fed meeting, and following our previous analysis, we show that the Phillips curve plays an im

June 2, 2017

We are introducing a new publication, which we are calling Global Macro Views . This product aims to complement existing IIF research, by discussing b

June 1, 2017
Markets-time for a breather? EM capital flows-steady as she goes, per our latest Tracker U.S. exits the Paris Agreement-what next for green finance?

May 12, 2017
When it comes to global growth, sentiment has turned more upbeat in recent months"¦ but many remain cautious over the US outlook, one reason why marke

May 4, 2017

Debates rage, but the caravan moves on Greece -light at the end of the tunnel Puerto Rico bankruptcy -bigger than Detroit Machine learning -revoluti

April 13, 2017
Download PDF (389.82 KB) IIF Authors Robin

April 12, 2017
While optimism in businesses and households has remained at elevated levels, hard data from the US economy has been much weaker in the first quarter.

April 6, 2017
We change our interest rate forecast to incorporate a balance sheet runoff later this year Reduction in the Fed's assets translate to additional "synt

April 5, 2017
While details will take time to sort out, the Administration's plans will likely not involve a big increase in direct federal spending on infr

March 16, 2017

Download PDF (578.93 KB) IIF Authors Kristen Silverb

March 15, 2017
Federal Reserve hikes the interest rate to 1.00% Monetary policy statement little changed'€¦' '€¦ and the dot plot remained broadly the same Yellen st

March 9, 2017
We expect fiscal stimulus to fall short of lofty expectations We assume trade tension will stay shy of broad-based tariffs and more disruptive measure

February 7, 2017
Job growth accelerated in January and labor market appears strong Productivity growth has picked up and investment is likely to increase Disappointing

January 19, 2017
In search of inauguration trades Energy behind jump in U.S. inflation ECB-doves prevail, for now Mexico-tough times ahead Turkey-policy tinkering cont

January 12, 2017

Markets reassess the Trump trade US-a surge in animal spirits China-no deleveraging in 2016 Brazil-monetary easing accelerates Turkey-tightening liqui

December 15, 2016

1.'  Markets brace for higher bond yields, stronger USD: As investors digest the implications of the Fed's rather hawkish hike (see below), they see l

September 22, 2016
1. Global stocks, bonds surge post-Fed; EMs in favor :'  While the outcome of the BoJ and Fed meetings this week (see below) was much as anticipated,

July 25, 2016
This study examines the role of U.S. monetary policy in determining the incidence of emerging market crises. We analyze the determinants of currency c

April 28, 2016
1. What next for the rally? ' After the solid run-up since mid-February, the tone in global equity markets has been more sober over the past week. The

April 7, 2016
1. FX in focus: '  As investors watch the Fed --which in turn appears to be watching the markets (see below)--U.S. rat
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