Entries for 'U.S.'

We have shown that red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs recovery. We examine three possible drivers: (i) demographics; (ii) opioids;

We compare the US labor force participation rate to other G10 economies. The decline in the US participation rate is a clear outlier, especially wh

Red states are falling behind blue states in the labor market recovery, a phenomenon we documented in a Global Macro Views earlier this week. We fo

Red states are not benefitting the same as blue states from jobs growth, with the nature of th

The October labor market data on balance were a hawkish signal for the Fed, because the most dovish component - the drop in average hourly earnings gr

With the announcement of the next Fed Chair expected imminently, there is a lot of speculation over how policy might differ across the various candida

Sizing up the earnings turnaround' Pricing policy uncertainty' Bank earnings offer clues on cyclical recovery Frontier markets see a continued surge i

In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo

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We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process

We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist

We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -

The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade

We provide some background for the discussion on taxing foreign held income. We document the size and nature of reinvested earnings that US-based firm

Since our initial piece, the participation rate has drifted up, a trend that - should it continue - would tend to slow further declines in the unemplo