Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'

We have been writing on the growing vulnerabilities across EM, where we have been focused on two countries: Turkey and Argentina . Given recent dev

Labor force attachment has been studied extensively for DMs, "¦ where participation has risen among women and older workers. We document key trends in

Mounting trade tensions reflect past and present currency manipulation. We document the "fear of floating" that exists in countries across EM Asia, ..

Demonetization and GST were quasi-natural experiments, with profound and long-lasting impacts on the economy. This meant India missed the synchronized global recovery, but  a rebound is underway from low initial conditions. Broad money has not recovered fully from demonetization, but credit growth and capital flows will support investment. Easing appreciation pressure will be positive for exports, even though structural competitiveness issues remain.

We have been focused on rising risk to emerging markets, especially where idiosyncratic factors point to vulnerabilities . Official intervention ca

Argentina's fiscal position worsened under the Kirchner administration. The current government is committed to redressing the situation, and is imp

Markets are turning less friendly towards carry trades, which is weighing on EMs with large external funding needs. Earlier this year we scanned EM

We recently introduced a new activity tracker for China. That tracker displays far more swings than the official GDP data. We explore if swings in cre

We discuss why global growth was so synchronized last year, which we trace back to the Shanghai G20 meeting in February 2016. That meeting followed

China's real GDP growth has been very stable since 2015, unlike its main trading partners, which continue to see normal variability. A new activity

Global trade tensions are on the rise, "¦ reflecting persistent current account imbalances. The US current account translates into a 10% Dollar overva

China and Saudi Arabia are key members of the so-called "Dollar block." Both have in recent years experienced large declines in official reserves. In

We provide a summary of the topics we have covered since June 2, when we published the first Global Macro Views that was called "The Big Questions." T

EM currencies have sold off since the FOMC meeting on Sep. 20. We evaluate the risk of another "taper tantrum" and discuss how different currencies mi

This GMV revisits some of the themes from our April Global Economic Monitor examining global growth. The upswing in business sentiment since the sta

We look at where export volumes out- or underperformed relative to fluctuations in the real exchange rate, controlling also for changes in global grow

We showcase the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) for world trade. Using granular trade data, we determine that US trade balance with the rest

We update our model for the USD/CNY fix, concluding that USD/CNY could still fix lower for some time, given that the RMB in trade-weighted terms is st

We dig deeper into services exports, and consider what the growing importance of services trade will mean for the global economy. Using a new dataset

The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade