Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
October 6, 2022
We last week discussed our updated exchange rate fair values.
That discussion centered on structural breaks across G10 currencies, …
given Russia’s ...
September 29, 2022
This GMV updates our exchange rate fair value estimates.
Our focus in these updates is usually concentrated on EM, …
but Russia’s invasion of Ukrain...
September 22, 2022
The COVID shock caused substantial supply chain disruptions, …
which spilled into unprecedented delivery delays around the world, …
as well as large...
September 15, 2022
After Russia invaded Ukraine, emerging markets were very resilient at first.
Rising commodity prices meant the war was a positive terms of trade shoc...
September 8, 2022
The effectiveness of the G7 price cap is being hotly debated.
This Global Macro Views summarizes the debate on both sides.
Skeptics fear that certai...
August 25, 2022
We have built a database tracking tankers shipping oil out of Russia.
The innovation to the database is that it identifies the ultimate owner.
Oil t...
June 9, 2022
The ECB has clearly signaled normalization of monetary policy, …
even as periphery sovereign bond spreads keep widening out steadily.
Rate ...
May 26, 2022
We yesterday published our updated Capital Flows Report, …
laying out our latest global growth and capital flows forecasts.
Risk is buildin...
May 19, 2022
Our forecasts show the global economy teetering on the brink of recession, …
as war in Ukraine, COVID lockdowns in China and a hawkish Fed we...
May 12, 2022
We switched to forecasting a Euro zone recession two months ago, …
given rising odds of adverse spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Uk...
April 28, 2022
We summarize our take-aways from last week’s meetings.
Obviously, on the surface, most discussions were about the war, …
the effectiv...
April 21, 2022
Western sanctions on Russia represent a compromise.
If all of Russia’s financial institutions had been sanctioned, …
that’d mak...
April 7, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending markets.
Rising commodity prices are buoying Latin America, …
while commodity importers like...
March 31, 2022
We examine some of the main drivers of Russia’s current account surplus.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago, global oil prices have rise...
March 24, 2022
Something very unusual is happening in global capital flows to EM.
China is seeing large outflows in our high-frequency tracking of daily flows, &he...
March 17, 2022
The range of potential outcomes in Ukraine is massive, …
going from a near-term peace deal to a multi-year conflict.
We contrast the range ...
March 10, 2022
We update our heatmap of emerging market vulnerabilities, …
in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.
There is ...
March 10, 2022
Sanctions have drastically tightened Russia’s financial conditions.
We forecast a very deep recession of -15 percent GDP growth in 2022, &hell...
March 3, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment for Europe.
It is also a turning point for markets, which are not yet pricing this.
...
February 17, 2022
We last week began a new GMV series on the rise in global inflation.
Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...