Entries for 'Asia Pacific'
June 26, 2018
We see similarities in economic conditions leading to unscheduled BI meetings in Aug 2013 and May 2018. Sustained portfolio outflows and depreciation
June 25, 2018
OPEC and Russia have agreed to lift oil output starting July 2018.' The agreement is ambiguous with no concrete output targets and country level alloc
June 8, 2018
Growth remains robust, driven by consumption, despite capital formation weakening this year. The opposition's surprise victory in the general election
May 24, 2018
Turkey hikes rates to support the lira-will this movie replay in other markets? Rise in EM local currency yields has been modest, compared to the tape
May 10, 2018
China still enjoys strong growth momentum driven by services and advanced manufacturing. Trade tensions and deleveraging of a very indebted economy ar
May 8, 2018
Mounting trade tensions reflect past and present currency manipulation. We document the "fear of floating" that exists in countries across EM Asia, ..
May 8, 2018
Given the more challenging landscape, with a stronger USD and rising U.S. rates, we have cut our forecasts for non-resident portfolio flows to emergin
May 3, 2018
Demonetization and GST were quasi-natural experiments, with profound and long-lasting impacts on the economy. This meant India missed the synchronized global recovery, but a rebound is underway from low initial conditions. Broad money has not recovered fully from demonetization, but credit growth and capital flows will support investment. Easing appreciation pressure will be positive for exports, even though structural competitiveness issues remain.
May 1, 2018
The economy is to expand around 6.7% in 2018, running near potential. The key this year is to stabilize inflation expectations and anchor inflation wi
April 26, 2018
Economic growth is poised to maintain a steady path after improving last year. Expansionary fiscal spending and a low policy rate will support domesti
April 3, 2018
The growth outlook has improved as the economy is overcoming the impact of policy-related disruptions. Fiscal spending ahead of elections next year wi
April 2, 2018
Broad-based economic growth is expected, predominantly driven by private consumption and investment. Official reserves will rise to USD133 billion in
February 1, 2018
China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f
January 17, 2018
Bottom-up analysis shows that CPI in 2018 will be moderately higher, "¦ "¦driven by food, residence and probably also services.' Thus, we think the ch
December 19, 2017
Both on- and off-balance sheet Chinese banking sector assets ballooned in the past decade. However, many drivers behind the rapid asset growth seem to
December 14, 2017
India: Is RBI Poised to Shift to a Tightening Cycle? "¢ The recent jump in inflation, market expectations for it to be elevated through mid-2018, and
December 7, 2017
China's state-owned companies are suffering from high leverage and low return, "¦ "¦ partly due to their high concentration in upstream heavy industri
December 7, 2017
President Moon's administration faces multiple challenges, while seeking to reshape foreign relations. North Korea's latest missile launch and ongoing
December 7, 2017
Foreign direct equity investment in Asia Six jumped in Q3 2017 as inflows to India recovered after two soft quarters following the demonetization shoc
December 1, 2017
We expect China's CPI to be slightly higher, yet still contained in 2018, "¦ "¦ thanks to limited pass-through from PPI and slower growth of the money