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Output Gaps
Output Gaps
Recent Publications
Global Macro Views: The Euro Zone Crisis 10 Years On
July 8, 2021
Ten years ago, the Euro zone crisis exploded onto the global stage, … with the spread on Italian sovereign bonds over Bunds rising substantia...
Global Macro Views: Full Employment Output Gaps
February 11, 2021
The US is debating whether a $1.9 tn fiscal stimulus will lead to overheating, … a discussion that hinges critically on just how much slack t...
Global Macro Views: Output Gaps for Italy and Spain
February 4, 2021
The COVID-19 shock means that GDP is below potential almost everywhere. But there is big uncertainty how to estimate the output gap, especially in r...
Global Macro Views: Inflation-Consistent Output Gaps
January 28, 2021
There’s plenty of evidence that output gaps are difficult to estimate, … especially in real time when they matter most for fiscal and m...
GMV: COVID-19 and Euro Zone Divergence
August 20, 2020
The Euro zone was marked by economic divergence before COVID-19, … with GDP in Spain and Italy slow to rebound after the 2011/2 debt crisis. ...
GMV: How Big is the “Missing Inflation” Puzzle in the US
February 6, 2020
Core PCE inflation fell back to 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2019, ... reigniting the debate around “missing inflation” and what...
GMV: The Engine Room of our Inflation-Consistent NAIRUs
November 15, 2019
Consensus NAIRU estimates put the Euro periphery near full employment, ... even though the pace of underlying inflation has been subdued for many ye...
GMV: Inflation-consistent NAIRUs for Italy and Spain
November 8, 2019
Consensus NAIRU estimates put Italy and Spain close to full employment, ... even though the pace of underlying inflation has been subdued for many y...
GMV: Reverse-Engineering the Euro Zone NAIRU
October 31, 2019
In last week’s Global Macro Views we flagged rising Euro zone deflation risk, ... because the weaker German outlook risks upsetting a delicate...
Global Macro Views: Rising Deflation Risk in the Euro Zone
October 24, 2019
The annual meetings were full of anecdotes on the severity of the German downturn. The diesel shock and new environmental standards weigh heavily on...
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