Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
May 9, 2024
We provide a historical overview of the evolution of global trade.
And highlight the increased importance of EMs in the supply chain.
Shifts toward re...
April 25, 2024
We review some of the main macro and market themes at the spring meetings.
While de-globalization and political risk have been the center of discussio...
March 21, 2024
The US has seen an important increase in labor productivity …
… attributed to technological innovation, supportive fiscal policies and labor flexibil...
September 7, 2023
Since last month’s primary vote, Argentina is debating dollarization, …
which – on a spectrum – is really just an extreme version of a Dollar peg.
R...
August 31, 2023
The “Dominant Currency Paradigm” gave devaluations a bad name, …
on the grounds that Dollar invoicing makes devaluations less effective.
A lot of th...
July 27, 2023
The Euro zone has many high debt countries and a few low debt ones.
As a result, the rules are drifting inexorably towards enabling high debt, …
rat...
July 20, 2023
We’ve devoted recent pieces to the topic of devaluations.
This is an important topic because it is so widely misunderstood.
Indeed, any growth boost...
July 13, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, ...
because many think Dollar invoicing prevents an export lift post-devaluation...
July 6, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, …
feeding a narrative that Dollar invoicing means there’s no boost to exports.
E...
June 29, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, …
feeding a narrative that Dollar invoicing means there’s no boost to exports.
E...
June 8, 2023
In the immediate aftermath of the SVB shock almost three months ago, …
key question was if SVB was a genuinely new shock hitting the economy, …
or i...
May 11, 2023
Last week’s GMV argued that sanctions on Russia have had limited effect.
Financial sanctions have not been powerful enough to shorten war in Ukraine....
May 4, 2023
Financial sanctions – even mild ones – can be highly effective, …
when they target current account deficit countries that import capital.
Their imp...
April 20, 2023
This Global Macro Views summarizes our impressions from the Spring Meetings.
The broad consensus is that deposit outflows from US banks after SVB ha...
March 30, 2023
We estimate that Russia’s energy price windfall amounts to $215 bn.
This windfall is the “excess” current account surplus from mid-2021, …
when ener...
February 9, 2023
Last week we wrote about the G7 price cap on Russian oil, …
arguing that it’s too early for a definitive assessment of the cap.
That’s because the s...
January 12, 2023
We last week began an examination of the global credit cycle, …
using consistent data across 32 advanced and emerging markets.
Credit boosted globa...
January 5, 2023
Recent years have seen profound shocks to the global economy, …
ranging from the ongoing COVID pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This Globa...
December 29, 2022
For many EM investors, 2022 was unfortunately a binary year, …
meaning you either foresaw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or you didn’t.
We did not rin...
December 22, 2022
We have been flagging a US disinflation dynamic since this summer.
That’s when inflation among CPI components became less broad-based, …
which ended...