Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
March 13, 2025
We assess the U.S. fiscal outlook as debt and deficits climb.
Entitlement spending is set to rise, with Social Security and Medicare driving costs hi...
February 27, 2025
New 10% tariffs on $450–500bn of Chinese imports escalate U.S.-China trade tensions.
China responded with tariffs on U.S. energy and agriculture, and...
February 20, 2025
The original version of this GMV, published on Feb 20th, was based on WITS data as of Feb 14th. Since then, WITS has significantly updated its dataset...
February 13, 2025
The U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency, but its supremacy faces emerging challenges.
Historical trends in globalization have b...
February 6, 2025
Tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, though delayed 30 days, have already disrupted markets.
Repeated tariff use weakens U.S. leverage, pushing ...
January 30, 2025
Political and policy uncertainty define the 2025 global economic outlook.
In the U.S., inflationary pressures from tariffs and immigration policies p...
December 12, 2024
Japan’s GDP is forecast to grow 1.0% in 2025, driven by recovering domestic demand and wage-supported consumption.
Inflation at 2.5% reflects wage gr...
November 28, 2024
U.S. tariffs could reduce Euro Area GDP by 0.3%-0.4%, with Germany’s autos and Italy’s machinery most exposed.
Rising labor and energy costs, alongsi...
November 21, 2024
President-elect Trump has outlined several key economic policies he wants to pursue in his second term, with particular emphasis on ramping up U.S. ta...
November 6, 2024
Trump’s re-election boosts short-term U.S. equities but raises debt and inflation concerns.
Expected tax cuts and spending increases could push long-...
May 9, 2024
We provide a historical overview of the evolution of global trade.
And highlight the increased importance of EMs in the supply chain.
Shifts toward ...
April 25, 2024
We review some of the main macro and market themes at the spring meetings.
While de-globalization and political risk have been the center of discussio...
March 21, 2024
The US has seen an important increase in labor productivity …
… attributed to technological innovation, supportive fiscal policies and labor flexibil...
September 7, 2023
Since last month’s primary vote, Argentina is debating dollarization, …
which – on a spectrum – is really just an extreme version of a Dollar peg.
R...
August 31, 2023
The “Dominant Currency Paradigm” gave devaluations a bad name, …
on the grounds that Dollar invoicing makes devaluations less effective.
A lot of th...
July 27, 2023
The Euro zone has many high debt countries and a few low debt ones.
As a result, the rules are drifting inexorably towards enabling high debt, …
rat...
July 20, 2023
We’ve devoted recent pieces to the topic of devaluations.
This is an important topic because it is so widely misunderstood.
Indeed, any growth boost...
July 13, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, ...
because many think Dollar invoicing prevents an export lift post-devaluation...
July 6, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, …
feeding a narrative that Dollar invoicing means there’s no boost to exports.
E...
June 29, 2023
The “dominant currency paradigm” has given devaluations a bad name, …
feeding a narrative that Dollar invoicing means there’s no boost to exports.
E...