Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm remain wide and are largely dependent on remittances and oil prices. While high FDI helps cover external financing needs, debt buildups have been significant in some countries, increasing external vulnerability amid limited buffers.

Colombia’s current account deficit was wide in 2018, despite depreciation since the oil price shock of 2014-15. We think deficits are largely driven by structural forces.Colombia’s external vulnerability will likely remain.

EM Growth Tracker at 3.6% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Hard data variables behind the improvement. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.

Steady Fed gives sense of balanced risks: “healthy” U.S. economic trajectory, potential inflation rise towards 2%; Frontier market debt growing quickly — total outstanding $3.2 trillion — sovereign defaults low (for now); Green and sustainability-linked lending nearly doubles in 2018 – now almost $100 billion outstanding; LIBOR transition fraught with risks — linked to contract maturity profiles, spreads to new benchmarks

Markets spent 2018 debating if Turkey and Argentina are idiosyncratic, and the same debate is playing out now given the recent market sell-off. Our daily tracking of real money flows highlights broad-based weakness, where we see the EM positioning overhang as one underlying theme.

Portfolio inflows to Emerging Markets were $38 billion in April. Equity and debt inflows reached $14 billion and $24 billion, respectively. Net capital flows into EM rose to $27.7 billion in March.

Our activity tracker slowed markedly in 2018, but has been broadly stable since September. Tariffs played a limited role in the slowdown, but are finally taking a toll on tradable sectors. Credit-intensive sectors are turning around, suggesting China’s policy stimulus still works.

Frontier market debt rose by over $250 billion in 2018, reaching $3.2 trillion for the 26 countries in our sample. Zambia, Vietnam, and Tunisia saw the largest rise in debt ratios. 

EM assets have enjoyed tailwinds—more dovish Fed/ECB, better growth prospects, attractive valuations… but recent dollar strength and higher oil prices highlight risks ahead; Non-financial corporate EM FX debt up by over $2 trillion since 2009, pushing total EM FX debt to $5.3 trillion; High levels of dollarization reflect declining consumer confidence in Turkey and Argentina