Markets were disappointed by the 2019 MTBPS announcement. Revisions to growth, deficit, and debt were worse than expected. This follows an Eskom plan lacking details on debt restructuring. Moody’s changed the outlook to negative but kept the IG rating. Key market concern is no longer the rating, but debt sustainability.

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

Merits of further monetary policy easing under the microscope; Rising populism—whether due to economic or socio-cultural factors—is the primary driver of global policy uncertainty; Limited scope for monetary policy to address declining business confidence, as social unrest is often a root cause; Frontier market debt tops 115% of GDP in Q2 2019—up by 20 percentage points over the past decade.  The exceptions thus stand out—including Kazakhstan which has both low valuations and declining debt levels.

Frontier market debt hit $3.2 trillion in Q2 2019, up by over $630 billion since Q2 2016.  While this marks the slowest quarterly growth in debt since 2015, it also puts total frontier debt/GDP at a record high of over 115%. We have added Republic of Congo, Gambia, and Mozambique to our frontier market debt monitor database. 

Growth in the Euro area slowed considerably in 2018 and 2019H1. CEE countries are highly integrated into European value chains. We already see evidence of a slowdown in industrial production. However, domestic demand continues to support robust growth. In case of further shocks, policy space is not universally available.

Activity in China slowed markedly in the first half of 2018, but softened just marginally when trade tensions picked up. Policy support to credit-intensive sectors largely offset tariffs, but investment in high value-added tradable sectors suffered. Scope for more policy support remains if growth falls further.

Nationwide protests continue, triggered by economic strain and deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the sectarian-based leaders. Permanent fiscal measures and deeper structural reforms are needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and raise growth.