Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'

This note summarizes the main talking points covered during our recent investor trip to Egypt. It also updates our forecasts for this fiscal year and next.

There is an opportunity for Lebanon after five years of economic crisis and political stagnation for a new government – put in place on February 8th – to begin a turnaround of its fortunes

This note summarizes the key points that were discussed ruing our online investor trip to the GCC in December.GCC Investor Trip Notes

This note updates our economic forecast for Pakistan for FY 24/25 and FY 25/26. It also analyses the extent to which the new $7bn IMF program (agreed in late September) can accomplish the structural reforms that are desperately needed in the country.

The GCC region is forecasted to remain resilient amidst geopolitical uncertainty. Under our baseline scenario, oil prices will decline to $70/b in 2025. However, strong fundamentals, ample financial sources, and low debt will allow the region to cope well with this adverse external environment.

This report analyzes the economic implications of the Israel-Lebanon war on the MENA region and the global economy. In particular, we focus on the effects of two scenarios on the economies of Lebanon, Israel, and Iran.

Investor concern over the potential reversal of "hot money" into Egypt if global market conditions soured turned out to be overblown. Treasury securities showed resilience amidst the global sell-off in August, recouping most of those losses in September.

Positive developments in recent months, most notably the Ras El-Hekma, deal bode well for Egypt. The macroeconomic ramifications of these developments should help boost growth, reduce inflation, put public debt on a downward sustainable path, and improve the external position.

This note summaries the main topics discussed during our online investor trip to Egypt. Overall, participants’ outlook on the Egyptian economy was broadly positive, with many citing the massive liquidity injection stemming from the Ras El-Hekma deal has the main upside development.

After bottoming out over the past two years, the momentum of nonresident capital flows to emerging markets has shifted. This in large part due to a better EM outlook relative to advanced economies, with average EM output growth likely to be higher and EM interest rate spreads likely to widen.

Saudi Arabia's short-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, despite tighter global financial conditions. We expect non-oil growth to remain robust at 5%, driven by consumption and investment. The current account will continue to narrow, while capital outflows will outweigh capital inflows.

The historic Ras El-Hekma deal will bring in $35bn of immediate financing within the next couple of months. The cash windfall will help cover Egypt’s external financing needs over the foreseeable future and, combined with an expanded IMF program, can boost gross reserves to over $50bn.

In this report we highlight the potential fallout to the global economy of a wider, prolonged, war in the Middle East. We focus on two scenarios, and see how each scenario affects commodity prices, trade disruption, and global inflation and growth.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza will widen the current account deficit. Gross financing needs will remain very high and available financing will be insufficient unless an IMF program resumes which would usher in additional official financing.

Gross foreign assets of the GCC countries are forecasted to grow to $4.4 trillion by the end of 2024, in this note we analyze where these petrodollars are being invested.

We analyze the impact of a potential spike in oil prices on advanced and developing countries, as well as the global economy as whole. We find that the overall effect is much less severe than in previous oil shocks due to structural changes including the reduction in the intensity use of oil.