Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'

Iraq’s path to recovery is inhibited by continuous political instability and a lack of institutional capacity. While the PM has resigned, there is much uncertainty on meeting protesters’ demands for economic and political reforms. The economic recovery from the war has been at a slow pace.

Lebanon's capital controls may avert short-term crisis. Yet they can pose a long-term cost by discouraging inflows, which play a pivotal role in the country's economic model. Timely formation of a new government with a strong commitment to reform can boost confidence and enable removal of controls. 

We expect non-oil growth to accelerate to 3.0% as private sector confidence improves and the monetary stance eases. However, overall growth will likely drop to 0.5%, dragged down by a significant cut in crude oil production. 

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

Nationwide protests continue, triggered by economic strain and deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the sectarian-based leaders. Permanent fiscal measures and deeper structural reforms are needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and raise growth.

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

Following the change in political leadership, Uzbekistan embarked on a path of structural reforms and economic opening. Growth is expected to pick up driven by large public investments. Continued credit boom, slowing reform momentum and external shocks present key challenges to the outlook. 

Bank lending and accommodative policies helped output recover in 2019H1,but a continued fall in investment limits the pace of real GDP growth. TRY depreciation has led the current account to shift to a surplus, and FX reserves appear sufficiently large to cover external debt repayments. 

Recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities led to the worst supply disruption in last 50 years. Aramco’s full return to normal crude oil production may take more than a few weeks. The impact on the Saudi economy includes a small contraction in overall real GDP and a wider fiscal deficit.

Promoting nonhydrocarbon growth and diversifying away from traditional sectors remain key challenges. We expect nonhydrocarbon growth to reach 1.9% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020, aided by stimulus in Abu Dhabi and Expo 2020-linked spending in Dubai, but then recede. More emphasis on innovation is vital. 

Borrowing costs have fallen sharply as a result of policy changes. Lending remains subdued due to concerns over bank asset quality. Credit-fueled growth has increased private sector indebtedness. Banks remain well-capitalized and profitability is set to increase. 

Lebanon’s economy is at a turning point. Despite the recent downgrades we still believe that Lebanon will not default given its sizable international reserves, robust banking system, and a track record of having never defaulted on foreign-currency debt. 

Portfolio investments will be the main driver of foreign capital inflows increase to Saudi Arabia in 2019. Supported by the MSCI upgrade, Saudi Arabia has attracted $18 billion in foreign equity inflows so far this year.

CCA countries have diversified their economic linkages. The EEU and the Belt Road initiative serve as channels for Russia and China to exert influence. While Russia remains a key partner with respect to trade, labor markets and FDI in some countries, China's prominence is increasing markedly.

Egypt has successfully completed the 3-year EFF arrangement with the IMF. Growth has accelerated, unemployment has decreased, the twin deficits have narrowed, core inflation has fallen, and the public debt ratio has started to decline.

We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.

Real GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) remains strong in 2019, recovering from earlier external shocks of a fall in oil prices and sanctions on Russia. Growth should remain strong beyond the near term, although lower commodity prices and slowdown in major partners could pose risks.

The GCC countries followed the Fed and cut their key policy rates, given their pegged exchange rates. Lower interest rates will encourage borrowing and stimulate non-oil growth, which has been weak in recent years. We expect non-oil growth to pick up from 2.1% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019. 
 

Addition to the MSCI EM Index would acknowledge capital markets reform and send a positive signal to investors. We expect foreign inflows of $1.8 billion from passive investors and up to $7 billion from active investors in 2020-2022.

Neglect of structural distortions has prevented Morocco from matching its more successful EM peers in raising its standard of living.